Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
645 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

All modes of severe weather and flooding are expected this evening
into tonight. A warm front has pushed into the southern portions
of the area this afternoon and is expected to make little
northward progress through this evening and early tonight. Along
and south of that front, storms will try to become surface based
with all modes of severe weather possible. Strongest storms will
be over southwest MO and extreme southeast KS where large hail to
2", damaging winds to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be
possible. This is very conditional on the evolution of upstream
convection, though, and will need to be watched closely. Flooding
will also be a significant concern over the southwester part of
the CWA as training convection and ample moisture coincide. A
Flash Flood Watch remains in effect.

A line of severe thunderstorms is then expected to move west to
east across the area on Tuesday, starting midday and going through
the evening. Strong winds and an isolated tornado will be the
primary threat with large hail also being possible. Additional
heavy rain, although brief given the speed of the line, will lead
to additional flooding where excessive rain falls into tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

No significant changes were made to the long term forecast.
Looking at above normal temperatures with highs in the 80s and
chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly NW of I-44.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Occasional showers and thunderstorms will continue through much of
tonight, some strong to severe. A break in thunderstorms is
expected Tuesday morning before additional storms move west to
east through the area Tuesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for MOZ066-077>079-
     088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
313 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-212015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
313 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Extreme flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

 Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to impact areas
 mainly along and west of Highway 65 into this evening as an
 unstable airmass interacts with warm front moving northward
 across the region. The main threat will be large hail to the
 size of golf balls and damaging winds up to 70 mph.

 Late this evening, and tonight, severe weather is expected to
 continue with all modes of severe weather possible.

 Moderate to heavy rainfall will bring the potential for
 flooding, mainly along and west of Highway 65 this afternoon
 through tonight. Multiple rounds of storms are expected to occur
 with 1 to 4 inches of rain possible. Some localized rainfall
 amounts may exceed 5 inches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

 On Tuesday another round of strong to severe storms will be
 possible across the entire region as a strong storm system
 approaches the area. All modes of severe weather will be
 possible.

 The potential for flooding will continue Tuesday, as additional
 moderate to heavy rainfall is expected.

 Intermittent storm activity is expected through the end of next
 weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed in the next six hours for
  southwest Missouri and extreme southeast Kansas.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Titus

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
928 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E PLEASANT HOPE       37.46N 93.21W
05/20/2019                   POLK               MO   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREES UPROOTED. VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1002 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CARTHAGE                37.18N 94.31W
05/20/2019                   JASPER             MO   PUBLIC

            MANY STREETS IN CARTHAGE FLOODED.

&&

MMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1021 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1013 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNW HALLTOWN          37.25N 93.65W
05/20/2019  M61 MPH          LAWRENCE           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            61 MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1023 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1019 PM     HAIL             ASH GROVE               37.32N 93.58W
05/20/2019  M0.70 INCH       GREENE             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1024 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1022 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BOIS D'ARC              37.26N 93.51W
05/20/2019                   GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF TREES DOWN IN BOIS DARC AREA -
            TREES OF 10-16 DIAMETER AND SIDING BLOWN OFF
            HOUSE.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1034 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1004 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW NEOSHO             36.85N 94.39W
05/20/2019                   NEWTON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF MANY LOCAL STREETS IN NEOSHO
            CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING AND A VEHICLE STALLED
            IN WATER ON SPRING STREET.

&&

KP