River Flood Warning 56, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
624 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

Moderate to heavy rainfall was impacting the Missouri Ozarks
early this morning with widespread flooding occurring. Rainfall
amounts of 2 to 5 inches had been reported through 2 am. With rain
continuing and additional rainfall amounts of between 1 and 3
inches expected across the region through this evening, have
expanded the flash Flood Watch across the entire CWA through 7PM.

There has been some indication of a brief rain free period this
morning across far southern Missouri fro the short range models.
This should be rather brief before a strong cold front begins to
move east and bring additional strong to severe thunderstorms and
additional heavy rain to the region through this afternoon.

As the low in the plains begins to lift north, the warm front
that was suppressed south by the ongoing convection should lift
into southwest Missouri. This will continue the chance for severe
storms along with a few brief spin ups possible.

The cold front will move through the region fairly rapidly as the
upper level system lift north. The expectation is for the eastern
portions of the area to see the front and associated strong to
severe storms around daybreak with the front progressing across
the area through the afternoon and be east of the area by late
this afternoon into early this evening. Once again, all models of
severe weather will be possible.

The region will then see clearing tonight with lows in the 50s
across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

Wednesday should be rather nice and potentially the only day for
the remainder of the week where showers or thunderstorms won't
impact the area. This will be thanks to a surface high that will
filter through the region behind Tuesdays cold front.

Sadly, the deep southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place
through the coming Memorial Day weekend. The Ozarks will be on
the periphery of upper level high pressure over the southeastern
CONUS. with severe short waves moving through the upper level
flow, and depending on the strength of the high, additional rounds
of showers and storms will be possible. Will need to monitor this
boundary to determine how far north/south the rain will impact.

In general, the remainder of the week with the exception of
Wednesday look to be fairly active and wet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

Flight conditions across the Ozarks region this morning were VFR
for the most part. However, A squall line is expected to move
across the region today with impacts to visibilities and ceilings
expected. As the storm system moves through, flight conditions
will drop to MVFR to occasionally IFR as the front moves east.
Gusty surface winds will occur ahead of the front in addition to
periods of low level wind shear.

Flight conditions will improve quickly behind the front as
ceilings and visibilities improve to VFR for overnight tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
341 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-220845-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
341 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Extreme flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Elevated non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

 Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected
 today as a cold front moves through the Ozarks. The main threat
 will be large hail and damaging winds up to 70 mph. An isolated
 tornado will also be possible along the front.

 Additional moderate to heavy rainfall will bring the potential
 additional flooding to occur, especially where heavy rain fell
 yesterday and overnight. Very efficient rainfall will occur
 along the front as it moves through the area today. From 1 to 3
 inches of rain will possible. this will like add to the ongoing
 flooding across the region

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

 Intermittent storm activity is expected from Wednesday night through
 the coming holiday weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed in the next six hours for
  southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Hatch

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