Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2019

Tornado Watch 206

May 21, 201925 counties in Arkansas; 22 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 21, 2019, 11:32 AM CDT for 25 counties in Arkansas; 22 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 21, 2019, 11:32 AM CDT (16:32 UTC)
Expired: May 21, 2019, 6:07 PM CDT
In force: 7 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 1.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 47 counties

Baxter County, AR, Boone County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Conway County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Garland County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Logan County, AR, Marion County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Newton County, AR, Perry County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Yell County, AR, Barry County, MO, Camden County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Howell County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Maries County, MO, Miller County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 135 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 60%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 20%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 20%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 90%

Warnings issued inside it

38 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 21, 11:43 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barry	47 min
May 21, 11:56 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Montgomery, Polk, Scott	49 min
May 21, 12:05 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Barry	6 hr
May 21, 12:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Greene, Webster	31 min
May 21, 1:06 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Dallas, Greene, Webster	24 min
May 21, 1:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Johnson, Logan, Pope, Scott, Yell	52 min
May 21, 1:15 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Greene	5 hr
May 21, 1:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dallas, Laclede, Webster	38 min
May 21, 1:31 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LZK	Johnson, Logan, Newton, Pope, Yell	44 min
May 21, 1:35 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Stone	25 min
May 21, 1:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Garland, Montgomery, Perry, Yell	38 min
May 21, 1:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Boone, Newton	38 min
May 21, 1:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Christian, Stone	33 min
May 21, 2:06 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LZK	Boone, Johnson, Newton, Searcy	39 min
May 21, 2:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Conway, Johnson, Logan, Newton, Pope, Searcy and 2 more	48 min
May 21, 2:13 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Dallas, Greene, Polk	4 hr
May 21, 2:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Baxter, Boone, Marion, Newton, Pope, Searcy and 2 more	50 min
May 21, 2:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Greene, Webster	49 min
May 21, 2:44 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Webster	31 min
May 21, 2:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Christian, Douglas, Ozark, Taney	43 min
May 21, 2:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Christian, Douglas, Webster, Wright	49 min
May 21, 3:02 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Douglas, Wright	28 min
May 21, 3:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Conway, Stone, Van Buren	40 min
May 21, 3:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Laclede	37 min
May 21, 3:18 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Wright	27 min
May 21, 3:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Douglas, Ozark	38 min
May 21, 3:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Laclede, Wright	37 min
May 21, 3:25 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Camden, Dallas, Laclede, Webster	4 hr
May 21, 3:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Ozark	32 min
May 21, 3:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Camden, Miller, Pulaski	29 min
May 21, 3:38 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	SGF	Laclede, Texas, Wright	37 min
May 21, 3:50 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Howell, Ozark	25 min
May 21, 3:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Maries, Miller, Pulaski	52 min
May 21, 4:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Laclede, Phelps, Pulaski, Texas	43 min
May 21, 4:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Howell, Texas	35 min
May 21, 4:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dent, Maries, Phelps	43 min
May 21, 4:24 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	SGF	Dent, Phelps	36 min
May 21, 4:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dent, Oregon, Shannon	49 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 4.5 hours before the alert went out and 139 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1076 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 72 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 38 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 401 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 20, 10:30 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benton, Boone, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison and 4 more	60 min
May 20, 11:06 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benton	24 min
May 21, 12:18 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin and 6 more	5 hr
May 21, 12:55 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay, Fulton, Randolph	95 min
May 21, 5:09 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Benton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more	9 hr
May 21, 7:26 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benton, Crawford, Little River, Polk, Scott, Sebastian and 2 more	94 min
May 21, 9:57 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baxter, Boone, Carroll, Clark, Cleburne, Conway and 26 more	93 min
May 21, 1:51 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baxter, Boone, Marion, Newton, Pope, Searcy	84 min
May 21, 4:43 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay, Craighead, Cross, Greene, Jackson, Lawrence and 3 more	62 min
May 20, 8:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Benton, Camden, Dent, Hickory, Howell, Laclede and 10 more	8 hr
May 21, 3:10 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Audrain, Bollinger, Boone, Butler, Callaway, Cape Girardeau and 32 more	8 hr
May 21, 5:43 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Crawford, Franklin and 20 more	62 min
May 21, 6:12 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Saint Charles, Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis	33 min
May 21, 6:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Atchison, Holt	3 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2019 Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2019 Every tornado watch in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.