Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2019

Tornado Watch 204

May 21, 201912 counties in Arkansas; 10 counties in Missouri; 11 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 21, 2019, 12:18 AM CDT for 12 counties in Arkansas; 10 counties in Missouri; 11 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 21, 2019, 12:18 AM CDT (05:18 UTC)
Expired: May 21, 2019, 5:16 AM CDT
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 1.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 33 counties

Baxter County, AR, Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Newton County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Washington County, AR, Barry County, MO, Christian County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Howell County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Wright County, MO, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Wagoner County, OK

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 20%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 20%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 70%

Warnings issued inside it

8 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 21, 12:28 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dent, Shannon, Texas, Wright	62 min
May 21, 12:57 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Craig, Delaware, Mayes	6 hr
May 21, 1:05 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Muskogee, Okmulgee, Tulsa, Wagoner	6 hr
May 21, 1:07 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll	27 min
May 21, 1:11 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Dent, Phelps, Pulaski, Shannon, Texas	2 hr
May 21, 2:21 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Christian, Dent, Douglas, Howell, Oregon, Ozark and 4 more	4 hr
May 21, 2:42 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Craig, Delaware, Mayes, Nowata, Ottawa, Rogers and 1 more	6 hr
May 21, 2:45 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Howell, Ozark	20 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 5.3 hours before the alert went out and 100 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 38 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -107 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 992 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 79 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 462 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 819 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 20, 10:30 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benton, Boone, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison and 4 more	60 min
May 20, 11:06 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benton	24 min
May 21, 12:55 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay, Fulton, Randolph	95 min
May 21, 5:09 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Benton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more	9 hr
May 21, 7:26 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benton, Crawford, Little River, Polk, Scott, Sebastian and 2 more	94 min
May 21, 9:57 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baxter, Boone, Carroll, Clark, Cleburne, Conway and 26 more	93 min
May 21, 11:32 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Baxter, Boone, Cleburne, Conway, Faulkner, Fulton and 19 more	7 hr
May 21, 1:51 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baxter, Boone, Marion, Newton, Pope, Searcy	84 min
May 21, 4:43 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay, Craighead, Cross, Greene, Jackson, Lawrence and 3 more	62 min
May 20, 8:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Benton, Camden, Dent, Hickory, Howell, Laclede and 10 more	8 hr
May 21, 3:10 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Audrain, Bollinger, Boone, Butler, Callaway, Cape Girardeau and 32 more	8 hr
May 21, 5:43 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Crawford, Franklin and 20 more	62 min
May 21, 6:12 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Saint Charles, Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis	33 min
May 21, 6:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Atchison, Holt	3 hr
May 20, 7:38 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Canadian, Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Kingfisher, Kiowa and 1 more	97 min
May 20, 8:22 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atoka, Beckham, Blaine, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian and 40 more	53 min
May 20, 10:07 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Carter, Cleveland, Coal, Comanche, Cotton, Creek and 18 more	9 hr
May 21, 2:24 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Carter, Cleveland, Coal, Cotton, Garvin, Grady and 11 more	96 min
May 21, 4:56 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Creek, Hughes, Lincoln, McIntosh, Okfuskee, Okmulgee and 2 more	64 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2019 Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2019 Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2019 Every tornado watch in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.