Tornado Warning 25, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1214 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

.AVIATION...Updated for the 18Z TAF cycle.

Forecast for the first half of the TAF period will be highly
reliant on the eastward progression of a line of SHRA/TSRA
that is currently entering western AR. As the line moves east, am
expecting storms to become stronger with destabilization due to
dayime heating. All terminals should be impacted to a certain
degree by low CIGS and strong/VRB winds due to widespread TSRA.
Forecast for the second half of the TAF cycle will mainly include
improving conditions up to MVFR/VFR flight weather with
dissipating precipitation.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 629 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019)
UPDATE...

Updated to include 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Low clouds will encroach on the area during the morning and MVFR
ceilings will return to the area. Southeast winds will increase by
late morning and become gusty. A fairly uniform line of
thunderstorms is expected to progress across the state today
through this evening. TS wind gusts could be strong as they
approach area terminals. Near the end of the period, VFR
conditions should develop.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 341 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night
An upper ridge is over the Gulf of Mexico with strong upper low
pressure over the Rockies. This along with a cold front in the
Plains brought severe thunderstorms and tornadoes to the Plains
Monday. The front will move east today and the strong to severe
thunderstorms will move east as well. The cold front is expected in
eastern Oklahoma by 18z and into central Arkansas by 00z Wednesday.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase across the area
through the day and the best chance of severe thunderstorms is in
the north half of the state...this afternoon and evening. Strong low
level shear will be favorable for squall line development. In
addition to the damaging winds and large hail, a few tornadoes will
be possible as well.

As the surface low moves closer to Arkansas the pressure gradient
will become sharper and south winds will increase and become gusty.
Gusts to 30 mph are expected and winds could gust to 40 mph in parts
of eastern Arkansas.

Near normal temperatures are expected today. Wednesday high
temperatures will be above normal with highs in the mid 80s to lower
90s.

LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday
The upper level ridge will be over the SERN CONUS at the start of
the long term period...with AR on the NWRN periphery of this ridge.
Through the weekend...this ridge looks to shift west over
time...being centered around the LA Gulf Coast Region by late in the
weekend. At that time...AR will be on the NRN periphery of this
ridge. Given this overall pattern...chances for precip look to
remain low...and temps will remain warm.

Forecast highs will remain fairly steady in the mid 80s to low 90s
each day...with some slight variation from day to day. Lows will be
in the mid 60s to low 70s. Given how wet the past several weeks have
been...do not think the temps will get too out of hand given the
ample low level moisture. It will take considerable mixing for temps
to warm too far into the 90s. However...as a result of this
moisture...it will feel like the mid to possibly upper 90s some
afternoons due to the heat index.

As mentioned earlier...the forecast should remain generally
dry...but if any disturbances rotate around the periphery of the
upper ridge...this may trigger some convection for portions of the
CWA. For now however...keep POPs below mention given the low
confidence in this happening this far out in time.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...19 / Long Term...53
Aviation...19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
411 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-221000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
411 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible across
northern Arkansas this morning. Expect large hail and damaging
winds with the strongest storms...along with a tornado or two
possible.

As another strong storm system moves across the region, some
strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary
threats expected with the strongest storms. There may also be a
threat for a tornado or two...along with locally heavy rainfall
possible. The best chances for seeing any severe weather today
into tonight will be across the northern half of the area.

South winds will increase by late morning and continue through the
afternoon. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph are anticipated. Boaters should
use caution on area lakes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday Through Sunday

Expect the threat for severe weather to become low by late
Wednesday. However...heat index values may warm into the mid to
possibly upper 90s across some portion of the area later this week.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

51/62

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1143 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

ARZ030-037-040-211715-
Polk AR-Scott AR-Logan AR-
1143 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN...POLK AND
SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM CDT...

At 1142 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Morgan Springs to Queen Wilhelmina State
Park to 10 miles southwest of Vandervoort. Movement of the line was
northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Mena...                           Booneville...
Waldron...                        Mansfield...
Wickes...                         Grannis...
Hatfield...                       Vandervoort...
Beauchamp...                      Mountain Fork...
Cossatot River State Park...      Polk County Fairgrounds...
Mena Intermountain Airport...     Mccauley...
Shady...                          Echo...
Oliver...                         Hartley...
Morgan Springs...                 Queen Wilhelmina State Park...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for western
Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3493 9445 3496 9437 3495 9434 3497 9424
      3506 9423 3506 9425 3510 9414 3514 9411
      3514 9403 3518 9403 3523 9393 3484 9394
      3435 9411 3436 9425 3429 9426 3424 9447
TIME...MOT...LOC 1642Z 246DEG 24KT 3493 9439 3469 9439 3431 9453

55

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1217 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

ARZ021-030-037-211800-
Johnson AR-Scott AR-Logan AR-
1217 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LOGAN...SOUTHWESTERN
JOHNSON AND NORTH CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

At 1216 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mansfield, or 9 miles northwest of Waldron, moving northeast at 45
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Booneville...                     Waldron...
Paris...                          Mansfield...
Magazine...                       Subiaco...
Hartman...                        Scranton...
Ratcliff...                       Hinkle...
Hoyt...                           Echo...
Coal Hill...                      Caulksville...
Morrison Bluff...                 Barber...
Roseville...                      Chismville...
Wilkins...                        Glendale in Logan County...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for western
Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3497 9423 3506 9423 3506 9425 3510 9414
      3514 9414 3514 9403 3523 9403 3523 9392
      3532 9391 3531 9381 3542 9381 3536 9375
      3538 9371 3554 9370 3539 9351 3489 9415
      3496 9425
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 221DEG 39KT 3502 9417

55

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