Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
540 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Enhanced southerly flow will continue to strengthen this morning
between a Bermuda high to our east and a strengthening mid latitude
cyclone to our west. A related cold front will cross central NC
Friday night, spreading strong to severe thunderstorms. A mid and
upper level low will then linger over the central Appalachians and
middle Atlantic states through the weekend with surface high
pressure set to push in from the southwest on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Friday...

...Significant severe weather event likely through this evening...

The second round of showers and thunderstorms is moving into the
western edge of central NC as of 2 PM. As per the SPC mesoanalysis
page, CAPE is in the 500-1000 J/Kg range, with Bulk Shear values of
55-65 kts. 0-3 km SRH is roughly 200-250 m^2/s^2. Lapse rates aren't
terribly impressive. PWAT's are roughly 1.0-1.5" from west to east
across the area. SRH is expected to increase over the next few
hours. The CAPE has decreased in response to the earlier convection,
however some recovery is possible ahead of the line, especially if
the sun breaks out at all. Based on current radar and the above
parameters, there could be three successive rounds of convection
move through the area between 2 PM and 12 AM. Damaging winds,
isolated tornadoes and possibly some hail are all possible with the
storms. Also, given the available moisture there is also the
possibility for flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

Emergency Action plans should already be in place. Know where your
safe place is! If a warning is issued for your location take
shelter! Also, have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings.
Please check on your nearby family members and neighbors to ensure
they are also prepared.

Tonight...the strong/severe storms should be exiting the area around
or shortly after midnight as the cold front pushes through central
NC. Some additional showers are possible as the upper low swings
through the region, primarily across the far northwestern portions
of the area. Lows will depend on fropa timing and lingering clouds,
however for now expect lows around 50 degrees northwest to around 60
degrees east. Wind gusts should taper off behind the front, however
sustained winds around 15 kts will likely continue through the
overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 440 PM Friday...

A mature deep upper level low over eastern KY will migrate slowly
east into WV Saturday night. While central NC will initially be in
the dry slow associated with the mature low, strong cyclonic flow
interacting with available low level moisture will result in a
broken/overcast stratocu field by late morning, persisting well into
the afternoon. With heating, expect scattered showers to develop
with the greatest concentration over the NW Piedmont, and less so
over the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. While the bilk of the
showers will dissipate with loss of heating, continued cyclonic flow
will maintain a small threat for a shower across the northern
counties into Saturday night.

Due to the presence of the deep low, it will remain breezy across
central NC Saturday. Anticipate gusts 25 to 35 mph with the
strongest expected across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain where
partial sun will aid to mix the stronger winds to the surface.

The upper level low will drift east Sunday from WV into VA,
maintaining a cyclonic flow, though weaker, over central NC. Still
expect a few showers across the NE Piedmont, mainly during the
afternoon hours, though quickly dissipating with loss of heating.

Presence of the upper level low in our vicinity and its associated
cool pool of air will result in cooler than normal temperatures
through Sunday. Highs Saturday should vary from the upper 50s NW to
the upper 60s SE, and the 60s Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 540 PM Friday...

The upper level low lifts away from the Mid Atlantic Monday into
Tuesday, resulting in rising mid/upper level heights and a milder
air mass regime. A s/w in the northern stream will drag a weak sfc
cold front into central NC on Wednesday. Expect an increase in
cloudiness along with a small threat for a shower though convergence
appears weak and overall moisture depth marginal at best. Tranquil
weather expected Thu while the deep upper level low over the
ARKLATEX migrates into the Deep South Friday. Associated upper
divergence, strong onshore moisture fetch, and a weak sfc front
dropping southward from VA will increase the threat for showers and
a few thunderstorms. Temperatures through the work week will average
near to above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Friday...

24 hour TAF period: A narrow window of high-end MVFR to VFR
conditions will occur between the showers that moved through central
NC this morning and the more intense line of storms expected to
cross the area this aft/eve. However, winds will be strong and
gusty, even in the absence of showers/storms. Sustained southerly
winds of around 15 kts with gusts of 25-35 kts are expected. As the
line of storms moves through, cigs will lower into the IFR/MVFR
range while periods of visbys in the LIFR to MVFR range are
anticipated. Winds with the strong storms will increase to sustained
20+ kts with gusts of 40+ kts. Main threats will be damaging winds
and tornadoes accompanied by heavy downpours. Some hail cannot be
ruled out. -KC

The severe convection will exit the the area this evening/early
overnight as the cold front crosses cntl NC. Expect a wind shift to
swly and continued breezy conditions for much of the night. In such,
somewhat atypical regimes of post-frontal swly flow, low level
drying is not as significant as the climatologically more typical
wly or nwly post-frontal flow regimes; and as such, some patchy MVFR
ceilings may linger through early Sat. -MWS/KC

Looking ahead: The lingering presence of a mid-upr level low in the
vicinity of the Appalachians will maintain a risk of mainly diurnal
showers and storms Sat-Sun. A prolonged period of largely VFR
conditions is then expected through mid-week. -MWS/KC

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ009>011-
026>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Haines/JM
NEAR TERM...Haines/JM
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...JM/MWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
120 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

NCZ007-008-021>025-038>040-073>076-083-084-201730-
Person-Granville-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-
Randolph-Chatham-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-
120 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...TORNADO WATCH 88 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Winds will be quite strong well ahead of the storms. Gusts between
30 and 35 mph from the south will be common.

Severe thunderstorms will be likely this afternoon and evening,
primarily between 12 PM and 10 PM. The main severe weather hazards
will be damaging straight-line winds, large hail, torrential
downpours, and a few tornadoes. An isolated strong and long track
tornado can't be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

NCZ009>011-026>028-042-043-078-088-089-201730-
Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Wayne-
Cumberland-Sampson-
120 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 91 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

Winds will be quite strong well ahead of the storms. Gusts between
30 and 35 mph from the south will be common.

Severe thunderstorms will be likely this afternoon and evening,
primarily between 12 PM and 10 PM. The main severe weather hazards
will be damaging straight-line winds, large hail, torrential
downpours, and a few tornadoes. An isolated strong and long track
tornado can't be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

NCZ041-077-085-086-201730-
Wake-Harnett-Scotland-Hoke-
120 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 88 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

Winds will be quite strong well ahead of the storms. Gusts between
30 and 35 mph from the south will be common.

Severe thunderstorms will be likely this afternoon and evening,
primarily between 12 PM and 10 PM. The main severe weather hazards
will be damaging straight-line winds, large hail, torrential
downpours, and a few tornadoes. An isolated strong and long track
tornado can't be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
542 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1157 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW LOUISBURG         36.08N 78.37W
04/19/2019                   FRANKLIN           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINE DOWN AT 526 PEACH ORCHARD RD IN
            LOUISBURG.

&&

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
546 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE TEER              35.97N 79.16W
04/19/2019                   ORANGE             NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEDIA REPORTED TREES REPORTED. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

CC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
548 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1101 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W KITTRELL            36.22N 78.49W
04/19/2019                   VANCE              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT 900 CHARLIE GRISSOM RD BLOCKING
            THE ROAD.

&&

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
549 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE TEER              35.97N 79.17W
04/19/2019                   ORANGE             NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG DODSONS
            CROSS ROADS. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

CC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
553 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE GILLBURG          36.27N 78.37W
04/19/2019                   VANCE              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE TOOK DOWN TWO POWER LINES AT 120
            GILLBURG ESTATES CT.

&&

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
600 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HENDERSON               36.32N 78.41W
04/19/2019                   VANCE              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON POWER LINE AT S GARNETT
            ST AND W JENNETTE AVE IN HENDERSON.

&&

JFD