Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
219 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross central tonight, accompanied by strong to
severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A mid and upper
level low will then linger over the central Appalachians and middle
Atlantic states through the weekend with surface high pressure set
to push in from the southwest on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 PM...

...Significant severe weather event likely through this evening...

The second round of showers and thunderstorms is moving into the
western edge of central NC as of 2 PM. As per the SPC mesoanalysis
page, CAPE is in the 500-1000 J/Kg range, with Bulk Shear values of
55-65 kts. 0-3 km SRH is roughly 200-250 m^2/s^2. Lapse rates aren't
terribly impressive. PWAT's are roughly 1.0-1.5" from west to east
across the area. SRH is expected to increase over the next few
hours. The CAPE has decreased in response to the earlier convection,
however some recovery is possible ahead of the line, especially if
the sun breaks out at all. Based on current radar and the above
parameters, there could be three successive rounds of convection
move through the area between 2 PM and 12 AM. Damaging winds,
isolated tornadoes and possibly some hail are all possible with the
storms. Also, given the available moisture there is also the
possibility for flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

Emergency Action plans should already be in place. Know where your
safe place is! If a warning is issued for your location take
shelter! Also, have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings.
Please check on your nearby family members and neighbors to ensure
they are also prepared.

Tonight...the strong/severe storms should be exiting the area around
or shortly after midnight as the cold front pushes through central
NC. Some additional showers are possible as the upper low swings
through the region, primarily across the far northwestern portions
of the area. Lows will depend on fropa timing and lingering clouds,
however for now expect lows around 50 degrees northwest to around 60
degrees east. Wind gusts should taper off behind the front, however
sustained winds around 15 kts will likely continue through the
overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 320 AM Friday...

The closed mid/upper low over the southern Appalachians will jog
slowly ENE across the southern Mid-Atlantic States through Sunday.
As the core of the cold(-20 to to -22 C) temps aloft pivots NE moves
through the area, isolated to widely scattered showers are expected
mainly across the northern portions of the forecast area where the
deeper moisture extends. With the core of the cold air aloft and
associated cloud cover/moisture centered over the area, expect below
normal temps through the weekend. Highs Saturday and Sunday
generally in the 60s, potentially cooler in the mid to upper 50s
across the northern portions where the best chance of showers exist.
It will be breezy on Saturday as well with gradient winds of 20 to
25 in the mixed layer. Lows in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 320 AM Friday...

Heights aloft rebound in the wake of the low lifting up the Mid-
Atlantic and New England Coast on Monday with shortwave ridging
building across the area on Tuesday. At the surface, weak surface
high pressure centered over the GOM will briefly build north over
the area Monday and Monday night and will shift offshore on Tuesday
with the development of a lee side sfc trough across western
portions of the state. Convective rain chances return Wednesday and
Wednesday night as a northern stream shortwave trough passage
through the NE US and Mid-Atlantic region will drive a cold front SE
into the Carolinas. Front looks to push south of the area by
Thursday morning, with mostly dry conditions on Thursday.
Significant rain chances look to hold off until Friday and possibly
even into the weekend, depending on the eastward progression of yet
another vigorous storm system across the southern CONUS.

Near seasonable high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s on Monday
will warm into the lower 80s to mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday in
advance of the cold front. Temperatures cool return to more
seasonable temps behind the cold front on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Friday...

24 hour TAF period: A narrow window of high-end MVFR to VFR
conditions will occur between the showers that moved through central
NC this morning and the more intense line of storms expected to
cross the area this aft/eve. However, winds will be strong and
gusty, even in the absence of showers/storms. Sustained southerly
winds of around 15 kts with gusts of 25-35 kts are expected. As the
line of storms moves through, cigs will lower into the IFR/MVFR
range while periods of visbys in the LIFR to MVFR range are
anticipated. Winds with the strong storms will increase to sustained
20+ kts with gusts of 40+ kts. Main threats will be damaging winds
and tornadoes accompanied by heavy downpours. Some hail cannot be
ruled out. -KC

The severe convection will exit the the area this evening/early
overnight as the cold front crosses cntl NC. Expect a wind shift to
swly and continued breezy conditions for much of the night. In such,
somewhat atypical regimes of post-frontal swly flow, low level
drying is not as significant as the climatologically more typical
wly or nwly post-frontal flow regimes; and as such, some patchy MVFR
ceilings may linger through early Sat. -JM/KC

Looking ahead: The lingering presence of a mid-upr level low in the
vicinity of the Appalachians will maintain a risk of mainly diurnal
showers and storms Sat-Sun. A prolonged period of largely VFR
conditions is then expected through mid-week. -MWS/KC

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ009>011-
026>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Haines/JM/KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KC/JM/MWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
120 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

NCZ007-008-021>025-038>040-073>076-083-084-201730-
Person-Granville-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-
Randolph-Chatham-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-
120 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...TORNADO WATCH 88 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Winds will be quite strong well ahead of the storms. Gusts between
30 and 35 mph from the south will be common.

Severe thunderstorms will be likely this afternoon and evening,
primarily between 12 PM and 10 PM. The main severe weather hazards
will be damaging straight-line winds, large hail, torrential
downpours, and a few tornadoes. An isolated strong and long track
tornado can't be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

NCZ009>011-026>028-042-043-078-088-089-201730-
Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Wayne-
Cumberland-Sampson-
120 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 91 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

Winds will be quite strong well ahead of the storms. Gusts between
30 and 35 mph from the south will be common.

Severe thunderstorms will be likely this afternoon and evening,
primarily between 12 PM and 10 PM. The main severe weather hazards
will be damaging straight-line winds, large hail, torrential
downpours, and a few tornadoes. An isolated strong and long track
tornado can't be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

NCZ041-077-085-086-201730-
Wake-Harnett-Scotland-Hoke-
120 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 88 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

Winds will be quite strong well ahead of the storms. Gusts between
30 and 35 mph from the south will be common.

Severe thunderstorms will be likely this afternoon and evening,
primarily between 12 PM and 10 PM. The main severe weather hazards
will be damaging straight-line winds, large hail, torrential
downpours, and a few tornadoes. An isolated strong and long track
tornado can't be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 SW RALEIGH            35.79N 78.71W
04/19/2019                   WAKE               NC   PUBLIC

            A LARGE TREE FELL ON A COUPLE CARS ON
            HEATHER DR NEAR WESTERN BLVD IN RALEIGH.

&&

JFD

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
137 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WNW OXFORD            36.32N 78.63W
04/19/2019  M57 MPH          GRANVILLE          NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER AT US HIGHWAY 158 AND ENON
            RD MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 57 MPH.

&&

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
151 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST RDU INTERNATIONAL       35.87N 78.78W
04/19/2019  M49 MPH          WAKE               NC   ASOS

&&

JFD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Raleigh NC
151 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

NCZ021-038-073-074-083-084-191845-
Stanly-Anson-Richmond-Forsyth-Davidson-Montgomery-
151 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF Stanly...
Anson...Richmond...southern Forsyth...Davidson and Montgomery
Counties Until 245 PM EDT...

At 151 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS along a line extending from NEAR
Salisbury to 8 miles east of Wadesboro...AND MOVING north AT 60 MPH.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Winston-Salem...High Point...Lexington...Albemarle...Rockingham...
Wadesboro...Troy...Badin Lake...Thomasville and Clemmons.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3621 8044 3599 8004 3551 8007 3551 7977
      3523 7967 3485 7969 3482 8032 3519 8028
      3516 8046 3522 8048 3550 8030 3552 8018
      3572 8033 3574 8046 3583 8048 3584 8039
      3588 8042 3589 8037 3601 8042 3606 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 183DEG 59KT 3572 8054 3498 7993

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
212 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 SSW RALEIGH           35.77N 78.70W
04/19/2019                   WAKE               NC   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON POWER LINES ON AVENT FERRY RD
            NEAR LAKE JOHNSON IN RALEIGH.

&&

JFD