Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Raleigh, NC

147 
WWUS52 KRAH 192140
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
540 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

NCC001-037-063-183-192149-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-190419T2145Z/
Alamance NC-Wake NC-Chatham NC-Durham NC-
540 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN ALAMANCE...
NORTHWESTERN WAKE...NORTHEASTERN CHATHAM AND DURHAM COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for central North
Carolina.

LAT...LON 3624 7915 3623 7895 3602 7899 3607 7919
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 209DEG 37KT 3657 7883 

$$

NCC135-192145-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-190419T2145Z/
Orange NC-
540 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY...

At 539 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Virgilina,
moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Hillsborough, Schley and Eno River State Park. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for central North
Carolina.

LAT...LON 3624 7915 3623 7895 3602 7899 3607 7919
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 209DEG 37KT 3657 7883 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
440 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Enhanced southerly flow will continue to strengthen this morning
between a Bermuda high to our east and a strengthening mid latitude
cyclone to our west. A related cold front will cross central NC
Friday night, spreading strong to severe thunderstorms. A mid and
upper level low will then linger over the central Appalachians and
middle Atlantic states through the weekend with surface high
pressure set to push in from the southwest on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM Friday...

...Significant severe weather event likely through this
evening...

Emergency Action plans should already be in place. Know where
your safe place is! If a warning is issued for your location
take shelter! Also, have multiple ways to receive watches and
warnings. Please check on your nearby family members and
neighbors to ensure they are also prepared. The last time we had
a moderate risk out for the area is February 24th, 2016.

Between 2 PM and 6 PM the squall line will approach the Triad.
Widespread damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be
possible in the squall line. An isolated strong to long track
tornado can't be ruled out. Between 6 PM and 10 PM the squall
line will be crossing the triangle. The squall line will then
likely exit the eastern zones just before midnight tonight.

Heavy rainfall will also be possible in any stronger storms and
across urban areas. If you observe water over the roadways,
PLEASE TURN AROUND. Heed all road closures by local, county, and
state officials.

Prev Discussion->

Overview: A strong mid to upper level trough is expected to deepen
this morning with a rapidly strengthening area of low pressure
beginning to migrate north and east out of the lower Mississippi
valley. East of the Low and associated cold front, a rapidly
increasing pressure gradient will work to enhance southerly flow
east of the Appalachians, further enhancing the WAA regime,
resulting in additional formation of pre-frontal convective showers
and storms in two primary areas (1) along the southeastern facing
slopes of the Appalachians via upslope flow just west of our
forecast area, and (2) across the eastern Sandhills and Coastal
Plain, spreading northeastward through the lunchtime hours. A few
rumbles of thunder will be possible in these showers, but the severe
threat should be minimal. Some uncertainty remains on the coverage
and impact of these pre-frontal WAA regime showers, but they will
likely establish several differential heating boundaries across
central North Carolina that will need to be watched closely for
future interaction with the more organized line of strong to severe
convection, likely to march east of the mountains after 12z/8am
Friday, this stronger line of storms will be the epicenter for
severe impacts, likely influencing the Triad region shortly
after (18z/2pm - 00z/8pm), the Triangle between (21z/5pm
- 02z/10pm) and points along and east of Interstate 95 through
roughly 04z/12am.

Environmental conditions ahead of the front look dangerous to say
the least, with efficient enough instability (1000 - 1500 J/KG ML
CAPE), dangerous shear (Bulk: 45 to 55kts; SFC -> 1km: 20 - 30kts)
and helicity values, and near record PWat values (1.6 inches
+). In terms of limiting factors, few exist, other than the
uncertainty of just how much surface heating will be allowed
throughout the day, however, with such a strong WAA regime in
place, the atmosphere should be allowed to destabilize pretty
efficiently without many breaks in the sunshine. The environment
looks prime for a very active and potentially destructive
weather day across the Carolinas. A quick overview of each
threat is below.

Winds: A wind advisory has been issued for areas along and east of
US-1, beginning at 11am this morning and continuing through 10pm.
This Wind advisory was issued to highlight the southerly flow
regime, which will likely produce sustained winds as high as 25mph
with intermittent gusts approaching 45 mph ahead of the frontal
boundary. In terms of the front/convection impacts, damaging winds
will remain the primary and most widespread impact thanks to the
predominantly linear storm mode and the line of storms passage
occurring during peak atmospheric heating. The strongest cells will
be capable of producing wind gusts as high as 60 to 70mph, with
locally stronger gusts possible in a wet-microbursts type regime.
This will be more than enough to cause damage to trees, unsecured
objects, and even some structures.

Tornadoes: High-resolution model ensembles continue to spit out some
alarming low and mid-level shear values across central NC which, if
realized, would easily support the formation of a few tornadoes
across our region. Still some uncertainty on favored locations at
this point, likely dependent in large part to the progression of
surface heating ahead of the line and the eventual strength and
placement of the meso-low and attendant triple point. With the
primary storm mode remaining linear in nature, often times, the
embedded Tornadoes in these storm structures can spin of very
quickly, which could greatly reduce lead time ability. Also,
ensemble mean updraft helicity values remain high, indicating that a
few long-track strong tornadoes can't be ruled out across the area.

Flash Flooding: With seasonably high precipitable water values
present and already saturated soils abundant across central NC,
Flash Flooding will certainly be a concern again with this system,
especially in and around urban centers. Have decided against a Flash
Flood Watch for now, as I think the primary threat here is more
centered within urban centers, however, a future watch issuance may
be required down the road. The Weather Prediction Center has placed
most of central NC in a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for excessive rainfall.
Areas that see training storms will be of primary concern.
Eventually, the 1 - 1.5 inch areal average QPF with this system will
transition into the already swollen rivers/lakes, causing additional
or at least prolonging river flooding across central NC into the
weekend. This is generally supported by both GEFS/NAEFS Ensemble
River Forecasts, which continues to advertise additional flooding
along the Neuse and Haw Rivers through the weekend, possibly lasting
into next week.

Hail: With only modest mid to upper-level lapse rates present, large
hail 1"+ shouldn't be commonplace. However, with the parent low not
too far displaced from the region, and the possibility of some
sustained updrafts, can't completely rule out a few storms capable
of producing some isolated quarter to half-dollar sized hail
stones.

A diminishing chance of showers will linger overnight, as we remain
under the influence of the dynamic upr low/trough, but any severe
risk should move east of cntl NC by 10-11 PM. Post-frontal flow will
also be swly, so the incoming air mass will not be particularly
cool, and instead characterized by lows generally in the low-mid
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 440 PM Friday...

A mature deep upper level low over eastern KY will migrate slowly
east into WV Saturday night. While central NC will initially be in
the dry slow associated with the mature low, strong cyclonic flow
interacting with available low level moisture will result in a
broken/overcast stratocu field by late morning, persisting well into
the afternoon. With heating, expect scattered showers to develop
with the greatest concentration over the NW Piedmont, and less so
over the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. While the bilk of the
showers will dissipate with loss of heating, continued cyclonic flow
will maintain a small threat for a shower across the northern
counties into Saturday night.

Due to the presence of the deep low, it will remain breezy across
central NC Saturday. Anticipate gusts 25 to 35 mph with the
strongest expected across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain where
partial sun will aid to mix the stronger winds to the surface.

The upper level low will drift east Sunday from WV into VA,
maintaining a cyclonic flow, though weaker, over central NC. Still
expect a few showers across the NE Piedmont, mainly during the
afternoon hours, though quickly dissipating with loss of heating.

Presence of the upper level low in our vicinity and its associated
cool pool of air will result in cooler than normal temperatures
through Sunday. Highs Saturday should vary from the upper 50s NW to
the upper 60s SE, and the 60s Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 320 AM Friday...

Heights aloft rebound in the wake of the low lifting up the Mid-
Atlantic and New England Coast on Monday with shortwave ridging
building across the area on Tuesday. At the surface, weak surface
high pressure centered over the GOM will briefly build north over
the area Monday and Monday night and will shift offshore on Tuesday
with the development of a lee side sfc trough across western
portions of the state. Convective rain chances return Wednesday and
Wednesday night as a northern stream shortwave trough passage
through the NE US and Mid-Atlantic region will drive a cold front SE
into the Carolinas. Front looks to push south of the area by
Thursday morning, with mostly dry conditions on Thursday.
Significant rain chances look to hold off until Friday and possibly
even into the weekend, depending on the eastward progression of yet
another vigorous storm system across the southern CONUS.

Near seasonable high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s on Monday
will warm into the lower 80s to mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday in
advance of the cold front. Temperatures cool return to more
seasonable temps behind the cold front on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Friday...

24 hour TAF period: A narrow window of high-end MVFR to VFR
conditions will occur between the showers that moved through central
NC this morning and the more intense line of storms expected to
cross the area this aft/eve. However, winds will be strong and
gusty, even in the absence of showers/storms. Sustained southerly
winds of around 15 kts with gusts of 25-35 kts are expected. As the
line of storms moves through, cigs will lower into the IFR/MVFR
range while periods of visbys in the LIFR to MVFR range are
anticipated. Winds with the strong storms will increase to sustained
20+ kts with gusts of 40+ kts. Main threats will be damaging winds
and tornadoes accompanied by heavy downpours. Some hail cannot be
ruled out. -KC

The severe convection will exit the the area this evening/early
overnight as the cold front crosses cntl NC. Expect a wind shift to
swly and continued breezy conditions for much of the night. In such,
somewhat atypical regimes of post-frontal swly flow, low level
drying is not as significant as the climatologically more typical
wly or nwly post-frontal flow regimes; and as such, some patchy MVFR
ceilings may linger through early Sat. -MWS/KC

Looking ahead: The lingering presence of a mid-upr level low in the
vicinity of the Appalachians will maintain a risk of mainly diurnal
showers and storms Sat-Sun. A prolonged period of largely VFR
conditions is then expected through mid-week. -MWS/KC

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ009>011-
026>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Haines/JM
NEAR TERM...Haines/JM
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...JM/MWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
120 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

NCZ007-008-021>025-038>040-073>076-083-084-201730-
Person-Granville-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-
Randolph-Chatham-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-
120 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...TORNADO WATCH 88 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Winds will be quite strong well ahead of the storms. Gusts between
30 and 35 mph from the south will be common.

Severe thunderstorms will be likely this afternoon and evening,
primarily between 12 PM and 10 PM. The main severe weather hazards
will be damaging straight-line winds, large hail, torrential
downpours, and a few tornadoes. An isolated strong and long track
tornado can't be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

NCZ009>011-026>028-042-043-078-088-089-201730-
Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Wayne-
Cumberland-Sampson-
120 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 91 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

Winds will be quite strong well ahead of the storms. Gusts between
30 and 35 mph from the south will be common.

Severe thunderstorms will be likely this afternoon and evening,
primarily between 12 PM and 10 PM. The main severe weather hazards
will be damaging straight-line winds, large hail, torrential
downpours, and a few tornadoes. An isolated strong and long track
tornado can't be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

NCZ041-077-085-086-201730-
Wake-Harnett-Scotland-Hoke-
120 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 88 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

Winds will be quite strong well ahead of the storms. Gusts between
30 and 35 mph from the south will be common.

Severe thunderstorms will be likely this afternoon and evening,
primarily between 12 PM and 10 PM. The main severe weather hazards
will be damaging straight-line winds, large hail, torrential
downpours, and a few tornadoes. An isolated strong and long track
tornado can't be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Raleigh NC
238 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

NCZ078-191930-
Wayne-
238 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF Wayne County Until
330 PM EDT...

At 238 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR Mount Olive...MOVING north AT 30 MPH.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Goldsboro...Mount Olive...Walnut Creek...Mar-Mac...Brogden...Cliffs
Of The Neuse State Park...Elroy and Grantham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3516 7791 3517 7793 3516 7797 3518 7799
      3519 7802 3518 7807 3519 7816 3521 7817
      3522 7824 3525 7827 3532 7824 3534 7822
      3535 7815 3537 7816 3539 7814 3542 7816
      3545 7814 3544 7783 3543 7782
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 191DEG 27KT 3516 7812

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
321 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     RAMSEUR                 35.74N 79.66W
04/19/2019                   RANDOLPH           NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED BY RAMSEUR PD.

&&

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
324 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             3 NNW HIGH POINT        36.02N 80.02W
04/19/2019  M0.70 INCH       GUILFORD           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME-SIZED HAIL AT JOHNSON ST AND OLD MILL
            RD.

&&

JFD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
335 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

NCZ011-027-028-043-192015-
Edgecombe NC-Nash NC-Halifax NC-Wilson NC-
335 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN NASH...NORTHWESTERN
EDGECOMBE...SOUTHWESTERN HALIFAX AND NORTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 335 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Elm City, or 13 miles southwest of Rocky Mount, moving northeast at
50 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Rocky Mount, Nashville, Wilson, Elm City, Dortches, Red Oak, Enfield,
Sharpsburg, Whitakers and Leggett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Doppler radar has indicated weak rotation with this storm. If the
storm intensifies and rotation strengthens, a warning may need to be
issued.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for central North
Carolina. A tornado watch also remains in effect until midnight EDT
for central North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3565 7783 3574 7803 3619 7785 3621 7763
      3609 7751
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 205DEG 43KT 3578 7789

BAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Raleigh NC
404 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

NCZ007-192030-
Person-
404 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF northwestern Person
County Until 430 PM EDT...

At 404 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER Leasburg...or 9 miles east of Yanceyville...
MOVING northeast AT 45 MPH.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Concord...Hyco Marina and Hyco Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3634 7911 3635 7915 3654 7914 3654 7894
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 209DEG 40KT 3642 7918

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
426 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW SILER CITY        35.76N 79.48W
04/19/2019                   CHATHAM            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED TREE DOWN ON HOUSE. IN SILER CITY
            NEAR OLD US 421 N AND EDEN HILLS RD.

&&

CC