Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
259 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

First batch of severe storms moved across the Twin Cities, and
into west central Wisconsin since noon. Another area of storms
were developing along the main cold front from near Montevideo in
west central Minnesota, to St. Cloud, and near Rush City in east
central Minnesota. This line will affect most of southern
Minnesota, and into parts of west central Wisconsin through the
early evening. Severe storms will be possible as bulk wind shear
are between 35-45 kts and MLCAPEs are nearly 3000 J/kg. This was
the case as baseball size hail occurred in the western part of the
Twin Cities around 1 PM CDT. Once the storms move out of the
state, a refreshing air mass will spread across the Upper Midwest
for Tuesday. Another cold front will enter northwest Minnesota
Tuesday night, but it shouldn't affect central Minnesota until
well past midnight, and into Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

Thunderstorms still look possible Wednesday afternoon/evening
as a cold front moves through the area, although some uncertainty
exists in just how widespread they may be as the best upper level
forcing remains off to the north and south. An environment favorable
for strong to severe storms will develop during the afternoon ahead
of this front, with around 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 30-40 kts of
effective bulk shear. There is still some disagreement among models
in timing the front as it moves through the area, which leads to
uncertainty on where the best potential for severe weather sets
up during the afternoon/evening. The slower solutions bring the
front through during the afternoon/evening which could result in
at least some potential for strong/severe storms area-wide, while
the faster solutions moving the front through during the
morning/afternoon and potentially keep the threat south into Iowa.
After the front moves through, drier weather is weather is
expected through the rest of the work week.

A more active pattern is expected to develop over the weekend and
into next week, as ridging/northwest flow aloft flattens into
faster zonal flow in response to a trough coming ashore in the
Pacific Northwest. Typical spread exists in the models at this
range, but expect at least a few chances at showers and
thunderstorms during this time period. Expect temperatures to be
seasonable into next week, with highs and lows within a few
degrees of climatological values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

Earlier convection that was across central Minnesota has exited
west central Wisconsin. However, additional storms, locally severe
had developed west of the Twin Cities. The best chance of
widespread convection with TSRA/strong winds will occur from KRWF-
KMSP-KRNH and southward this afternoon. Hard to determine timing
so will continue with tempo periods until there is a better handle
on timing this afternoon. Any storm this afternoon will be
capable of producing very strong winds and hail. Between 21-00z,
conditions will slowly improve across central Minnesota, with the
bulk of the TSRA in south central Minnesota. Between 00-03z, most
of the activity will be south of MPX TAF sites, with a northwest
wind developing. BR/FG will be possible toward sunrise.

KMSP...

Current TSRA west of the cities will affect KMSP by 18z, and
likely continue for a half hour to an hour. Strong winds, and
hail are likely within 10 NM of the airport, but not necessary
affecting the terminal. Conditions should improve between 21-00z,
with most of the activity south of the airport after 00z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Wed...VFR. Chc -TSRA. W/SW wind 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. NW wind 5-10 kts.&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...JLT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1052 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
061600-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1052 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon. The
greatest threat is located south of a line from near Ladysmith
Wisconsin, to the Twin Cities and Redwood Falls. The primary
threat is damaging winds. Large hail, heavy rainfall and a couple
tornadoes are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on
Wednesday. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats.

Thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday. The severe
weather risk is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
415 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

WIZ026-052145-
Pepin-
415 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN PEPIN COUNTY...

At 415 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Pepin, or 9
miles northwest of Wabasha, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pepin, Stockholm and Ella.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4442 9212 4445 9223 4450 9231 4454 9230
      4454 9214 4457 9213 4457 9204 4447 9206
      4441 9209
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 275DEG 20KT 4447 9218

CTG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
416 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     HAIL             RAMSEY                  45.25N 93.41W
08/05/2019  M1.75 INCH       ANOKA              MN   PUBLIC

            PHOTO VIA FACEBOOK.

&&

BPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
417 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

MNZ059>063-068>070-052200-
Anoka-Washington-Dakota-Hennepin-Carver-Ramsey-Wright-Scott-
417 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

...A LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL WRIGHT...HENNEPIN...
NORTHWESTERN DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN SCOTT...CENTRAL ANOKA...CARVER...
CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND RAMSEY COUNTIES...

At 417 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Blaine to near Lester Prairie.
Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and dime size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Minneapolis, St. Paul, Bloomington, Brooklyn Park, Plymouth, Eagan,
Woodbury, Maple Grove, Coon Rapids, Eden Prairie, Burnsville and
Blaine.

This includes U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 139 and 140.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4508 9279 4506 9280 4503 9276 4497 9278
      4463 9363 4491 9401 4496 9401 4528 9318
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 311DEG 28KT 4515 9317 4484 9400

ETA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
432 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

MNZ085-052200-
Steele-
432 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN STEELE COUNTY...

At 432 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Blooming
Prairie, or 12 miles southeast of Owatonna, moving southeast at 25
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Blooming Prairie, Steele Center and Bixby.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4394 9321 4403 9307 4402 9304 4386 9305
      4385 9305 4384 9310
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 308DEG 21KT 4394 9308

CTG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
440 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     7 NW BLOOMING PRAIRIE   43.94N 93.15W
08/05/2019                   STEELE             MN   911 CALL CENTER

&&

BORGHOFF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
444 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

MNZ091-092-052230-
Martin-Faribault-
444 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN FARIBAULT AND EAST
CENTRAL MARTIN COUNTIES...

At 444 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Winnebago, or
14 miles northeast of Fairmont, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Blue Earth, Winnebago, Easton, Delavan, Granada, Huntley and Guckeen.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 between mile markers 111 and 127.
 U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 8 and 21.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4369 9435 4379 9428 4378 9389 4357 9399
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 274DEG 23KT 4374 9422

CTG