Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1231 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

The complex of thunderstorms over eastern North Dakota is forecast
(with some amount of confidence) to hold together to reach west
central and central Minnesota this morning. While there is
uncertainty as to how robust this activity will be as it arrives
this morning, there is cause for concern with respect to the threat
for damaging winds as convection becomes more rooted in the boundary
layer with daytime heating. Diurnal heating will also likely renew
storm development along the cold front and any outflows from the
morning convection. Mid-level lapse rates are short of impressive,
but instability looks plentiful ahead of the front this afternoon,
with dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s and MLCAPEs of 2500+ J/KG.
Models also prog 35 knots of effective shear from south/east central
MN into west central WI during the afternoon. Hi-res models hint at
the development of an MCV as well, which would enhance the tornado
threat.

Could have some lingering storms this evening, but expect clearing
overnight, with patchy fog development possible into Tuesday
morning.

Northwest flow aloft and more shortwave energy passing overhead
could be conducive to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday-
particularly during the afternoon. Have kept most areas dry at this
point, but that may change with future forecast updates.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

The long term has another cold front moving through the area
Wednesday, followed by cooler and drier conditions which should
last the remainder of the week.

The secondary cold front drops southeast over the area Wednesday
with some threat of strong to severe weather with models
increasing MUCAPE to at least 1500 J/kg, Shear increasing to
40-45kts as the upper trough moves in, and best LI's of around
minus 6. Mid level lapse rates around 6.5 C/km isn't particularly
unstable but may be enough for some strong wind gusts and large
hail in the afternoon. Again, the better chance of that would be
Wednesday afternoon across about the southern half of the area.

Cooler and drier air returns under high pressure for late in the
week. Afternoon highs in the 70s, overnight lows in the 50s and
dewpoints in the pleasant 50s.

Deterministic models build the western CONUS ridge into the
weekend with MN remaining on the eastern flank of the ridge. We
will become vulnerable to periodic short waves as the warmer air
tries to make a return. The better chance appears to moves in
late in the weekend(Sunday) at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

Earlier convection that was across central Minnesota has exited
west central Wisconsin. However, additional storms, locally severe
had developed west of the Twin Cities. The best chance of
widespread convection with TSRA/strong winds will occur from KRWF-
KMSP-KRNH and southward this afternoon. Hard to determine timing
so will continue with tempo periods until there is a better handle
on timing this afternoon. Any storm this afternoon will be
capable of producing very strong winds and hail. Between 21-00z,
conditions will slowly improve across central Minnesota, with the
bulk of the TSRA in south central Minnesota. Between 00-03z, most
of the activity will be south of MPX TAF sites, with a northwest
wind developing. BR/FG will be possible toward sunrise.

KMSP...

Current TSRA west of the cities will affect KMSP by 18z, and
likely continue for a half hour to an hour. Strong winds, and
hail are likely within 10 NM of the airport, but not necessary
affecting the terminal. Conditions should improve between 21-00z,
with most of the activity south of the airport after 00z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Wed...VFR. Chc -TSRA. W/SW wind 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. NW wind 5-10 kts.&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JLT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1052 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
061600-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1052 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon. The
greatest threat is located south of a line from near Ladysmith
Wisconsin, to the Twin Cities and Redwood Falls. The primary
threat is damaging winds. Large hail, heavy rainfall and a couple
tornadoes are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on
Wednesday. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats.

Thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday. The severe
weather risk is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
124 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1256 PM     HAIL             2 NNE MEDINA            45.06N 93.58W
08/05/2019  E1.75 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   PUBLIC

&&

TRH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
126 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1242 PM     HAIL             INDEPENDENCE            45.03N 93.72W
08/05/2019  M3.00 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   PUBLIC

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
130 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     HAIL             1 ESE MAPLE GROVE       45.10N 93.44W
08/05/2019  M1.50 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

TRH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
137 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

WIZ023-051915-
St. Croix-
137 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ST. CROIX COUNTY...

At 137 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near North Hudson,
or 12 miles north of River Falls, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stillwater, Hudson, New Richmond, North Hudson, Bayport, Somerset,
Baldwin, Hammond, Roberts, Lakeland, Boardman and Willow River State
Park.

This includes Interstate 94 in Wisconsin between mile markers 1 and
10.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4495 9234 4496 9276 4500 9278 4503 9276
      4506 9280 4507 9281 4511 9275 4516 9239
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 262DEG 20KT 4503 9269

CTG

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
148 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

WIZ028-051915-
Eau Claire-
148 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN EAU CLAIRE
COUNTY...

At 147 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Augusta, or 23
miles southeast of Eau Claire, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Augusta, Fairchild and Lake Eau Claire County Park.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4460 9092 4465 9112 4479 9112 4479 9092
      4470 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 277DEG 16KT 4471 9103

CTG