Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
259 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

First batch of severe storms moved across the Twin Cities, and
into west central Wisconsin since noon. Another area of storms
were developing along the main cold front from near Montevideo in
west central Minnesota, to St. Cloud, and near Rush City in east
central Minnesota. This line will affect most of southern
Minnesota, and into parts of west central Wisconsin through the
early evening. Severe storms will be possible as bulk wind shear
are between 35-45 kts and MLCAPEs are nearly 3000 J/kg. This was
the case as baseball size hail occurred in the western part of the
Twin Cities around 1 PM CDT. Once the storms move out of the
state, a refreshing air mass will spread across the Upper Midwest
for Tuesday. Another cold front will enter northwest Minnesota
Tuesday night, but it shouldn't affect central Minnesota until
well past midnight, and into Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

Thunderstorms still look possible Wednesday afternoon/evening
as a cold front moves through the area, although some uncertainty
exists in just how widespread they may be as the best upper level
forcing remains off to the north and south. An environment favorable
for strong to severe storms will develop during the afternoon ahead
of this front, with around 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 30-40 kts of
effective bulk shear. There is still some disagreement among models
in timing the front as it moves through the area, which leads to
uncertainty on where the best potential for severe weather sets
up during the afternoon/evening. The slower solutions bring the
front through during the afternoon/evening which could result in
at least some potential for strong/severe storms area-wide, while
the faster solutions moving the front through during the
morning/afternoon and potentially keep the threat south into Iowa.
After the front moves through, drier weather is weather is
expected through the rest of the work week.

A more active pattern is expected to develop over the weekend and
into next week, as ridging/northwest flow aloft flattens into
faster zonal flow in response to a trough coming ashore in the
Pacific Northwest. Typical spread exists in the models at this
range, but expect at least a few chances at showers and
thunderstorms during this time period. Expect temperatures to be
seasonable into next week, with highs and lows within a few
degrees of climatological values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

Earlier convection that was across central Minnesota has exited
west central Wisconsin. However, additional storms, locally severe
had developed west of the Twin Cities. The best chance of
widespread convection with TSRA/strong winds will occur from KRWF-
KMSP-KRNH and southward this afternoon. Hard to determine timing
so will continue with tempo periods until there is a better handle
on timing this afternoon. Any storm this afternoon will be
capable of producing very strong winds and hail. Between 21-00z,
conditions will slowly improve across central Minnesota, with the
bulk of the TSRA in south central Minnesota. Between 00-03z, most
of the activity will be south of MPX TAF sites, with a northwest
wind developing. BR/FG will be possible toward sunrise.

KMSP...

Current TSRA west of the cities will affect KMSP by 18z, and
likely continue for a half hour to an hour. Strong winds, and
hail are likely within 10 NM of the airport, but not necessary
affecting the terminal. Conditions should improve between 21-00z,
with most of the activity south of the airport after 00z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Wed...VFR. Chc -TSRA. W/SW wind 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. NW wind 5-10 kts.&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...JLT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1052 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
061600-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1052 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon. The
greatest threat is located south of a line from near Ladysmith
Wisconsin, to the Twin Cities and Redwood Falls. The primary
threat is damaging winds. Large hail, heavy rainfall and a couple
tornadoes are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on
Wednesday. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats.

Thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday. The severe
weather risk is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
257 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

WIZ023-025-027-028-052045-
Chippewa-St. Croix-Dunn-Eau Claire-
257 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN DUNN...SOUTHEASTERN ST.
CROIX...SOUTHWESTERN CHIPPEWA AND NORTHWESTERN EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES...

At 256 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Knapp, or 12
miles west of Menomonie, moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eau Claire, Menomonie, Woodville, Elk Mound, Knapp, Rock Falls,
Wilson, Cedar Falls, Caryville, Tainter Lake, Hersey and Downsville.

This includes Interstate 94 in Wisconsin between mile markers 23 and
62.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4466 9162 4468 9165 4468 9168 4484 9214
      4486 9214 4485 9218 4491 9234 4504 9226
      4495 9151
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 284DEG 36KT 4493 9215

CTG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
306 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

MNZ051-052030-
Sherburne-
306 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN SHERBURNE COUNTY...

At 305 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Zimmerman, or
18 miles north of Buffalo, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elk River, Otsego, Big Lake, Zimmerman, Becker, Orrock and Sherburne
National Wildlife Refuge.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 206 and 217.
 U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 159 and 170.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4544 9351 4525 9352 4524 9352 4529 9357
      4530 9365 4543 9392 4550 9367
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 299DEG 19KT 4544 9373

ETA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
307 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

WIZ015-016-027-052100-
Chippewa-Barron-Rusk-
307 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN RUSK...
NORTHERN CHIPPEWA AND SOUTHEASTERN BARRON COUNTIES...

At 306 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered 9 miles west of
Sheldon, or 11 miles south of Ladysmith, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chetek, Cornell, New Auburn, Sheldon, Conrath, Island Lake, Holcombe
and Chippewa Moraine State Rec Area.

This includes U.S. Highway 53 between mile markers 115 and 127.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in The Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4537 9092 4512 9093 4516 9162 4531 9166
      4547 9068 4538 9068
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 257DEG 24KT 4530 9114

CTG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
402 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     HAIL             1 NNW ANOKA             45.21N 93.40W
08/05/2019  E1.75 INCH       ANOKA              MN   PUBLIC

&&

BPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
407 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     HAIL             1 ESE RAMSEY            45.25N 93.42W
08/05/2019  M1.25 INCH       ANOKA              MN   PUBLIC

&&

BPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
415 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

WIZ026-052145-
Pepin-
415 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN PEPIN COUNTY...

At 415 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Pepin, or 9
miles northwest of Wabasha, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pepin, Stockholm and Ella.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4442 9212 4445 9223 4450 9231 4454 9230
      4454 9214 4457 9213 4457 9204 4447 9206
      4441 9209
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 275DEG 20KT 4447 9218

CTG