Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
521 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

.UPDATE...For 12Z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

The complex of thunderstorms over eastern North Dakota is forecast
(with some amount of confidence) to hold together to reach west
central and central Minnesota this morning. While there is
uncertainty as to how robust this activity will be as it arrives
this morning, there is cause for concern with respect to the threat
for damaging winds as convection becomes more rooted in the boundary
layer with daytime heating. Diurnal heating will also likely renew
storm development along the cold front and any outflows from the
morning convection. Mid-level lapse rates are short of impressive,
but instability looks plentiful ahead of the front this afternoon,
with dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s and MLCAPEs of 2500+ J/KG.
Models also prog 35 knots of effective shear from south/east central
MN into west central WI during the afternoon. Hi-res models hint at
the development of an MCV as well, which would enhance the tornado
threat.

Could have some lingering storms this evening, but expect clearing
overnight, with patchy fog development possible into Tuesday
morning.

Northwest flow aloft and more shortwave energy passing overhead
could be conducive to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday-
particularly during the afternoon. Have kept most areas dry at this
point, but that may change with future forecast updates.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

The long term has another cold front moving through the area
Wednesday, followed by cooler and drier conditions which should
last the remainder of the week.

The secondary cold front drops southeast over the area Wednesday
with some threat of strong to severe weather with models
increasing MUCAPE to at least 1500 J/kg, Shear increasing to
40-45kts as the upper trough moves in, and best LI's of around
minus 6. Mid level lapse rates around 6.5 C/km isn't particularly
unstable but may be enough for some strong wind gusts and large
hail in the afternoon. Again, the better chance of that would be
Wednesday afternoon across about the southern half of the area.

Cooler and drier air returns under high pressure for late in the
week. Afternoon highs in the 70s, overnight lows in the 50s and
dewpoints in the pleasant 50s.

Deterministic models build the western CONUS ridge into the
weekend with MN remaining on the eastern flank of the ridge. We
will become vulnerable to periodic short waves as the warmer air
tries to make a return. The better chance appears to moves in
late in the weekend(Sunday) at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 522 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the area today. Followed
the HRRR timing the most closely, which centers the convective
threat in the 15Z-22Z time frame. Associated conditions with
showers/thunderstorms will be MVFR, but overall VFR will prevail.
Clearing skies tonight in combination with calm winds and recent
rainfall will likely lead to fog development overnight into
Tuesday morning, mainly from southern MN into west central WI.

KMSP...The window for timing of thunderstorms still looks highest
between 17Z and 21Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR. NW wind 5-10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Chc -TSRA. W/SW wind 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. NW wind 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...LS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1052 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
061600-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1052 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon. The
greatest threat is located south of a line from near Ladysmith
Wisconsin, to the Twin Cities and Redwood Falls. The primary
threat is damaging winds. Large hail, heavy rainfall and a couple
tornadoes are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on
Wednesday. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats.

Thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday. The severe
weather risk is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1116 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

MNZ065>067-051645-
McLeod-Sibley-Renville-
1116 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN SIBLEY...
SOUTHWESTERN MCLEOD AND EAST CENTRAL RENVILLE COUNTIES...

At 1116 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Stewart, or 15
miles southwest of Hutchinson, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hector, Brownton, Buffalo Lake, Stewart, Sumter, New Auburn, Fernando
and Lake Marion Regional Park.

This includes U.S. Highway 212 between mile markers 90 and 115.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4457 9456 4476 9476 4487 9438 4465 9413
TIME...MOT...LOC 1616Z 251DEG 26KT 4470 9453

ETA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1157 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

MNZ066>068-051730-
McLeod-Carver-Sibley-
1157 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL
SIBLEY...EASTERN MCLEOD AND WESTERN CARVER COUNTIES...

At 1156 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Lester
Prairie, or 18 miles east of Hutchinson, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Waconia, Glencoe, Norwood Young America, Winsted, Mayer, Lester
Prairie, Cologne, Silver Lake, Green Isle, Hollywood, Sumter and
Hamburg.

This includes U.S. Highway 212 between mile markers 112 and 126.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4486 9431 4498 9407 4497 9388 4472 9366
      4462 9429
TIME...MOT...LOC 1656Z 255DEG 27KT 4482 9402

ETA