Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
521 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

.UPDATE...For 12Z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

The complex of thunderstorms over eastern North Dakota is forecast
(with some amount of confidence) to hold together to reach west
central and central Minnesota this morning. While there is
uncertainty as to how robust this activity will be as it arrives
this morning, there is cause for concern with respect to the threat
for damaging winds as convection becomes more rooted in the boundary
layer with daytime heating. Diurnal heating will also likely renew
storm development along the cold front and any outflows from the
morning convection. Mid-level lapse rates are short of impressive,
but instability looks plentiful ahead of the front this afternoon,
with dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s and MLCAPEs of 2500+ J/KG.
Models also prog 35 knots of effective shear from south/east central
MN into west central WI during the afternoon. Hi-res models hint at
the development of an MCV as well, which would enhance the tornado
threat.

Could have some lingering storms this evening, but expect clearing
overnight, with patchy fog development possible into Tuesday
morning.

Northwest flow aloft and more shortwave energy passing overhead
could be conducive to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday-
particularly during the afternoon. Have kept most areas dry at this
point, but that may change with future forecast updates.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

The long term has another cold front moving through the area
Wednesday, followed by cooler and drier conditions which should
last the remainder of the week.

The secondary cold front drops southeast over the area Wednesday
with some threat of strong to severe weather with models
increasing MUCAPE to at least 1500 J/kg, Shear increasing to
40-45kts as the upper trough moves in, and best LI's of around
minus 6. Mid level lapse rates around 6.5 C/km isn't particularly
unstable but may be enough for some strong wind gusts and large
hail in the afternoon. Again, the better chance of that would be
Wednesday afternoon across about the southern half of the area.

Cooler and drier air returns under high pressure for late in the
week. Afternoon highs in the 70s, overnight lows in the 50s and
dewpoints in the pleasant 50s.

Deterministic models build the western CONUS ridge into the
weekend with MN remaining on the eastern flank of the ridge. We
will become vulnerable to periodic short waves as the warmer air
tries to make a return. The better chance appears to moves in
late in the weekend(Sunday) at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 522 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the area today. Followed
the HRRR timing the most closely, which centers the convective
threat in the 15Z-22Z time frame. Associated conditions with
showers/thunderstorms will be MVFR, but overall VFR will prevail.
Clearing skies tonight in combination with calm winds and recent
rainfall will likely lead to fog development overnight into
Tuesday morning, mainly from southern MN into west central WI.

KMSP...The window for timing of thunderstorms still looks highest
between 17Z and 21Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR. NW wind 5-10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Chc -TSRA. W/SW wind 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. NW wind 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...LS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
331 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
060845-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
331 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely today. The greatest
threat is located south of a line from near Ladysmith Wisconsin,
to the Twin Cities and Redwood Falls. The primary threat is
damaging winds. Large hail, heavy rainfall and a couple tornadoes
are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on
Wednesday. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats.

Thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday. The severe
weather risk is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
711 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

MNZ042-051245-
Todd-
711 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN TODD
COUNTY...

At 710 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Verndale, or
36 miles northeast of Alexandria, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Staples, Browerville, Clarissa, Eagle Bend, Staples Airport, Bertha,
Hewitt and Philbrook.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 103 and 114.
 U.S. Highway 71 between mile markers 195 and 219.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4637 9474 4635 9470 4635 9468 4636 9467
      4635 9466 4628 9465 4608 9465 4608 9466
      4611 9514 4637 9516
TIME...MOT...LOC 1210Z 269DEG 23KT 4636 9501

DWE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
732 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

MNZ041-042-051315-
Douglas-Todd-
732 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS
AND CENTRAL TODD COUNTIES...

At 732 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Parkers
Prairie, or 13 miles northeast of Alexandria, moving east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Alexandria, Long Prairie, Browerville, Carlos, Swanville, Miltona,
Belle River, Rose City and Clotho.

This includes U.S. Highway 71 between mile markers 183 and 194.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4608 9465 4591 9464 4595 9547 4611 9539
      4611 9523
TIME...MOT...LOC 1232Z 271DEG 34KT 4608 9523

DWE