Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
314 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Frigid arctic air will pour across our forecast area today and
Thursday...and this will not only help to generate significant lake
effect snow east and northeast of the lakes...but will support
dangerously low wind chill values THROUGHOUT the region. High
pressure passing across the Mid Atlantic region late in the week
will then bring an end to the glacial weather...as day to day
temperatures will steadily climb during the upcoming weekend into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...Blizzard conditions continue across Erie, Genesee, Wyoming,
Jefferson and Lewis counties through 1 AM Thursday...

Winds have rapidly increased this afternoon with frequent gusts
above 35 mph together with zero visibilities within the ongoing
(Erie) and developing (Ontario) lake bands. The strongest winds will
be during the afternoon and evening hours. In addition, with
temperatures dropping below zero, this will create dangerous to life
threatening conditions for anyone outdoors.

Looking at the bigger picture, low pressure is moving into central
Quebec this afternoon. An arctic cold front has moved through
western and north central NY with strong west-southwest winds
filtering into the region from west to east. Temperatures will
continue to fall this afternoon with thermometers dipping to
below zero across western NY and into the single digits east of
Lake Ontario. A mid-level trough is centered across the Great
Lakes with a robust shortwave trough/PV anomaly tracking across
NY/PA this afternoon. Winds of 30-40 mph will continue through
the early evening.

Strong cold air advection with 850mb temperatures falling to -28 to -
25 C across western and north central NY. Breaks in the clouds today
showed ice-free water from Long Point ON to the City of Buffalo on
Lake Erie. Although the lake temperatures are right around 32
degrees, lake induced instability has fed lake effect bands off Lake
Erie. The Lake Ontario band has been setting up today with most of
the band along the northern shore of Lake Ontario. As winds become
more westerly across the Lake this afternoon and tonight, the band
will move into Jefferson and Lewis counties. The strength of this
band can already be seen by the distant kbuf radar.

Back to Lake Erie...a 240 to 250 flow off the lake will keep a lake
band across N Chautauqua, NW Cattaraugus, Erie, Wyoming,
Genesee, Monroe and Livingston counties this afternoon. Winds
have increased to 40kts at 925mb which has caused the band to
spread out and become a dual band across the region. This has
caused a slower progression southward into the Southtowns today.
The strong winds have pushed the band inland as far as Monroe
and Wayne counties which will continue. As we move into the
evening hours, 925mb winds will veer westerly and the northern
edge of the band should move south of the City of Buffalo and
the Northtowns. A mid-level trough axis will track across the
Lake tonight and upstream moisture will decrease some. The band
may weaken some but it will be nearly stationary overnight.
Blizzard conditions will continue across Erie, Wyoming and
Genesee counties as winds 35 mph and falling/blowing snow
continues. These conditions will subside overnight as winds
taper off. Although these blizzard conditions will subside,
Winter Storm Warnings will continue through Thursday. The lake
band will venture north back into the City of Buffalo and KBUF
airport by Thursday afternoon. Elsewhere, expected scattered
snow showers.

Off Lake Ontario...a 260-270 flow will persist across Lake Ontario
this evening into Thursday. A three-lake connection with deep
moisture and sufficient lake induced instability to produce feet of
snow across Jefferson, Lewis and northern Oswego with emphasis on
the Tug Hill. Total snow accumulations of 2-4 feet are expected with
the max amounts on the Tug and tapering off on all sides.

Cold temperatures and wind chills expected through Thursday.
Overnight lows are in the teens to single digits below zero. The
coldest temperatures will likely be across the western Southern
Tier. Wind chill values 30 to 20 below zero are also expected as
westerly winds continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure across the mid-Atlantic states will ridge toward
western New York Thursday night. Winds will diminish considerably
across Lake Erie, which will cause lake effect snow to diminish as
the night goes on. This said, a shrinking, but still intense band
will probably linger near the lakeshore in southwestern Erie County.
Winds will be a bit stronger across Lake Ontario, which will
maintain heavy lake effect snow for much of the night.

Lake effect snow will be ongoing Thursday night, but will diminish
as the night. Diminishing winds will cause the band to contract
closer to the lake, with greatest amounts likely to be along the
west-face of the Tug Hill. Snowfall rates of 2 inches per hour may
drop another foot of snow there.

Elsewhere it will just be cold Thursday night, with lows near or
below zero. Winds will diminish, but still run 10 to 20 below which
may require wind chill advisories for some locations.

The high pressure ridge will expand toward the region on Friday,
which will end lake snows off Lake Erie when winds almost go calm.
Lake snows will continue just east of Lake Ontario, but will taper
off in the afternoon as winds drop off further. There may be some
light snow showers across the western Southern Tier with the passage
of a shortwave. Otherwise, temperatures will still be cold, with
highs in the teens.

The surface high will move off the mid-Atlantic coast Friday night
and Saturday. Meanwhile a shortwave will pass to the north, with a
weak cold front dropping across our region Saturday afternoon and
evening. This may spark a few snow showers will minimal
accumulation. Saturday will be notably warmer, with highs in the
upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A mid level ridge will build into the region Sunday, and sharpen on
Monday. Meanwhile, a warm front will move across the area and stall
across or just north of Lake Ontario on Sunday night. This will
bring some light snow or mixed precipitation to the region. Low
pressure will track near Lake Superior on Monday, with an increasing
southerly flow across our region pushing 850mb temperatures to
around +6C by Monday evening. It will warm considerably, with
temperatures rising into the mid 40s to lower 50s on Monday.

The warm pattern is likely to continue on Tuesday and Wednesday,
with another wave of low pressure expected to track across or pass
just north of the area. There is quite a bit uncertainty in the
exact timing and track of this low, and it is possible that the
North Country will be much cooler if the track of the low shifts
southward. However, it is fairly certain that temperatures will rise
well into the 40s (if not 50s) south of Lake Ontario on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Rainfall amounts from this system should be modest,
generally in the half inch to inch range. The greatest risk is for
ice jams, however rapid snow melt can also cause general flooding
depending on how much rain falls with it.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Blizzard warnings issued for Lake Effect Snow(LES) northeast of Lake
Erie and Ontario which will impact KBUF and KART.

Heavy snow and blowing snow will continue to affect the KBUF
airfield producing near zero visibilities with VLIFR conditions into
tonight. The other area of concern will be the KROC airfield where
reduced VSBYS/CIGS will be possible as the LES band is extending
northeast into Monroe County. The snow and blowing snow at the KROC
airfield will continue to produce IFR/LIFR conditions at times into
tonight.

Off lake Ontario, conditions have deteriorate with lake effect snow
picking up with IFR/LIFR expected to continue into tonight.

Elsewhere, MVFR conditions will be the case at the remaining sites
into tonight, although there will be times of VFR conditions.

Thursday, expect areas of IFR/LIFR conditions with lake effect snows
continuing east and northeast of the lakes. Elsewhere, a mixture of
MVFR/VFR will be the case outside of the Lake effect snows.

Outlook...

Thursday night and Friday...diminishing lake effect snows east and
northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Saturday...A chance of snow
showers/MVFR southeast of Lake Ontario otherwise VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
An areas of low pressure will deepen and slowly lift northeastward
across Quebec Province through Thursday. This will bring an extended
period of high end Small Craft Advisory to Gale Force conditions to
both Lakes Erie and Ontario. The strongest winds (Gales) will be
likely through tonight, with heavy freezing spray also developing
given the very cold temperatures.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A flash flood watch is in effect for addition seiches today and
tonight for parts of northern Erie county and southwestern
Niagara County through 1030 pm. At 1230 PM EST, the Niagara
River Control Center reported high water levels on the Niagara
River due to an ice jam between the NY Power Authority intake
and Cayuga Island. This will result in flooding across low-lying
areas along the Niagara River. Areas susceptible to ice jam
flooding will include Grand Island, Cayuga Island in Niagara
Falls, and the river shoreline between North Tonawanda and
Niagara Falls.

A period of rain will most likely bring between a half an inch to
inch of rain to the area. This combined with snow melt due to warm
temperatures will pose a risk for flooding. The greatest risk is for
ice jams, however the combination of snow melt and rain can also
cause general flooding depending on rainfall amounts. The risk for
flooding will be greatest during the Tuesday and Wednesday
timeframe.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Several surges of arctic air producing bands of lake effect
snow to close out the month of January may bring daily records
for both temperatures and snowfall. Below are the record low
maximum, low minimum and daily record snow for our three primary
climate stations.

Buffalo:

	Date			Low Maximum		Low Minimum 	Daily Snow

    Tuesday 1/29	4/1934			-7/1977			6.0/1894
	Wednesday 1/30	8/1948			-3/2003			11.6/1966
	Thursday 1/31	5/1920			-11/1920		5.5/1982

Rochester:

	Date

	Tuesday 1/29	1/1873			-9/1873			8.5/1925
	Wednesday 1/30	5/1908			-12/1873		18.0/1966
	Thursday 1/31	3/1920			-10/1994		11.7/1878

Watertown:

	Date

	Tuesday 1/29	1/1952			-17/2000
	Wednesday 1/30	7/2010			-24/2010
	Thursday 1/31	6/1973			-23/2011

In addition Buffalo will finish the month of January
within the top 10 snowiest on record. Currently through
January 27th the snow total for the month is: 42.4 inches.
Below is a partial list of the top 10 snowiest months of
January on record.

	Rank	 Amount (in)	Year

	1		68.3		  1977
	2		65.9		  1985
	3		65.1		  1999
    4		56.5		  1978
	5		53.2		  1982
	..
	10		42.6		  1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for
     NYZ010>012-085.
     Wind Chill Warning until 6 PM EST Thursday for NYZ001>006-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ010-019-085.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ007-008-
     010>012-085.
     Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday for
     NYZ007-008.
     Wind Chill Warning until 6 PM EST Thursday for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ006.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ003.
     Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ001-010.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for NYZ019-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ013.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for
         LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Thursday for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HSK/RSH
NEAR TERM...HSK/Zaff
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...Apffel/TMA
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...HSK/JJR/Zaff
HYDROLOGY...JJR/Apffel/HSK
CLIMATE...Thomas

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1222 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

NYZ001-311730-
Niagara-
1222 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Wind Chill Warning.

An ice jam remains in place on the Niagara River. There a risk that
flooding will develop behind the ice jam today, following an
increase in flows due to a lake seiche.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

  Wind Chill Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-311730-
Northern Erie-
1222 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Lakeshore Flood Advisory.
   Blizzard Warning.
   Winter Storm Warning.

An ice jam remains in place on the Niagara River. There a risk that
flooding will develop behind the ice jam today, following an
increase in flows due to a lake seiche.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-311730-
Jefferson-Lewis-
1222 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Blizzard Warning.
   Wind Chill Warning.
   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ021-311730-
Allegany-
1222 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ002-311730-
Orleans-
1222 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-014-311730-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Ontario-
1222 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003-311730-
Monroe-
1222 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Wind Chill Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-311730-
Oswego-
1222 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Wind Chill Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Wind Chill Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-311730-
Chautauqua-
1222 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Advisory.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ011-012-311730-
Genesee-Wyoming-
1222 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Blizzard Warning.
   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ013-311730-
Livingston-
1222 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Wind Chill Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Wind Chill Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ020-311730-
Cattaraugus-
1222 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ085-311730-
Southern Erie-
1222 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Advisory.
   Blizzard Warning.
   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-311730-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
1222 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-311730-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1222 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heavy Freezing Spray Warning.
   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heavy Freezing Spray Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-311730-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1222 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-311730-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
1222 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heavy Freezing Spray Warning.
   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heavy Freezing Spray Warning.
   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
219 PM EST WED JAN 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0126 PM     SNOW             WEST SENECA             42.84N  78.75W
01/30/2019  M9.0 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900594

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
239 PM EST WED JAN 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     SNOW             5 SSW HARRISVILLE       44.09N  75.37W
01/30/2019  M5.5 INCH        LEWIS              NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0600 AM     SNOW             5 ESE OSWEGO            43.44N  76.41W
01/30/2019  M6.2 INCH        OSWEGO             NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0600 AM     SNOW             CHASES LAKE             43.76N  75.30W
01/30/2019  M4.7 INCH        LEWIS              NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 NNE TONAWANDA         43.01N  78.87W
01/30/2019  M8.0 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 NW KENMORE            42.97N  78.88W
01/30/2019  M10.9 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             BENNETTS BRIDGE         43.52N  75.95W
01/30/2019  M5.0 INCH        OSWEGO             NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 ESE WATERTOWN         43.97N  75.89W
01/30/2019  M5.3 INCH        JEFFERSON          NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             ESE CLARENCE CENTER     43.01N  78.63W
01/30/2019  M13.5 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 NE LOCKPORT           43.18N  78.68W
01/30/2019  M8.0 INCH        NIAGARA            NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             LOWVILLE                43.80N  75.48W
01/30/2019  M4.0 INCH        LEWIS              NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 NNE NORTH TONAWANDA   43.06N  78.86W
01/30/2019  M10.3 INCH       NIAGARA            NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 ESE LOCKPORT          43.15N  78.65W
01/30/2019  M8.2 INCH        NIAGARA            NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             4 SSE LACONA            43.60N  76.04W
01/30/2019  M6.5 INCH        OSWEGO             NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0715 AM     SNOW             AKRON                   43.03N  78.48W
01/30/2019  M6.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0735 AM     SNOW             ESE KENMORE             42.96N  78.87W
01/30/2019  M15.7 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0745 AM     SNOW             SE MINETTO              43.40N  76.48W
01/30/2019  M5.4 INCH        OSWEGO             NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             5 NNE AMHERST           43.05N  78.76W
01/30/2019  M11.2 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             2 NW CHEEKTOWAGA        42.93N  78.78W
01/30/2019  M10.0 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             PENDLETON 1NE           43.10N  78.71W
01/30/2019  M9.4 INCH        NIAGARA            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             WNW MEDINA              43.22N  78.40W
01/30/2019  M3.9 INCH        ORLEANS            NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             3 E WILLIAMSVILLE       42.97N  78.69W
01/30/2019  M12.6 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0820 AM     SNOW             3 WNW LOCKPORT          43.19N  78.74W
01/30/2019  M5.0 INCH        NIAGARA            NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0830 AM     SNOW             W FULTON                43.32N  76.42W
01/30/2019  M5.5 INCH        OSWEGO             NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0126 PM     SNOW             1 W CHEEKTOWAGA         42.91N  78.77W
01/30/2019  M13.0 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

0126 PM     SNOW             CHEEKTOWAGA             42.91N  78.75W
01/30/2019  M8.0 INCH        ERIE               NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0126 PM     SNOW             LANCASTER               42.90N  78.67W
01/30/2019  M8.0 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

0140 PM     SNOW             S BUFFALO               42.89N  78.86W
01/30/2019  M8.7 INCH        ERIE               NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0200 PM     SNOW             EAST AURORA             42.77N  78.62W
01/30/2019  M14.0 INCH       ERIE               NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0200 PM     SNOW             4 S CORFU               42.91N  78.39W
01/30/2019  M14.0 INCH       GENESEE            NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0215 PM     SNOW             2 SSW BLASDELL          42.78N  78.84W
01/30/2019  M7.0 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

0215 PM     SNOW             S WATERTOWN             43.97N  75.91W
01/30/2019  M6.7 INCH        JEFFERSON          NY   COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900595
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900596
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900597
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900598
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900599
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900600
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900601
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900602
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900603
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900604
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900605
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900606
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900607
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900608
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900609
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900610
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900611
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900612
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900613
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900614
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900615
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900616
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900617
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900618
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900619
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900620
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900621
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900622
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900623
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900624
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900625

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
245 PM EST WED JAN 30 2019

NYZ003-004-013-302130-
Livingston-Wayne-Monroe-
245 PM EST WED JAN 30 2019

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT WESTERN WAYNE...
NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON AND MONROE COUNTIES...

At 245 PM EST, A band of lake effect snow is producing snow fall
rates of around an inch per hour along with visibilities down to a
quarter of a mile at times. Temperatures are near zero with wind
chills near
-20 degrees below zero.

Expect significant blowing and drifting snow to continue this
afternoon, particularly south and west of Rochester. This will
create hazardous driving conditions. In addition, spending time
outside can lead to a life threatening situation without proper
winter gear.

Lake effect snow bands will move very little throughout much of the
afternoon. Meanwhile, temperatures will continue to drop to and then
below zero while wind gusts exceed 35 mph at times, producing
blizzard conditions at times along with dangerous wind chills.

Locations impacted include...
Rochester, Greece, Irondequoit, Chili, East Rochester, Webster,
Fairport, Brighton, Gates-North Gates, Ontario, Henrietta, Penfield,
Williamson, Marion, Spencerport, Palmyra, Avon, Honeoye Falls,
Caledonia and Scottsville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 390 between exits 11 and 12.
 Interstate 90 near exit 46.

Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a quarter of a mile in
this band of lake effect snow.

LAT...LON 4290 7796 4291 7794 4294 7793 4295 7791
      4304 7791 4304 7795 4313 7791 4314 7799
      4330 7757 4328 7754 4332 7735 4333 7717
      4332 7707 4309 7709 4303 7730 4304 7748
      4298 7749 4285 7796

Zaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
248 PM EST WED JAN 30 2019

NYZ007-302145-
Jefferson-
248 PM EST WED JAN 30 2019

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHERN JEFFERSON
COUNTY...

At 246 PM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates
of 2 to 3 inches per hour is quickly moving toward Northern
Jefferson County.  This will affect areas along the St Lawrence
River and north and east of Watertown.

Locations impacted include...
Clayton, Redwood, Philadelphia, Alexandria Bay, Theresa, Cape
Vincent, Antwerp, Chaumont, Grindstone, Fishers Landing, La
Fargeville, Perch Lake, Point Peninsula, Plessis and Oxbow.

This includes Interstate 81 between exits 49 and 52.

Visibilities will drop quickly to near zero in this band of lake
effect snow.

LAT...LON 4422 7545 4392 7648 4396 7644 4397 7634
      4402 7636 4405 7642 4410 7643 4414 7635
      4420 7631 4422 7620 4424 7617 4429 7615
      4435 7601 4435 7595 4440 7586

Zaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
324 PM EST WED JAN 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     SNOW             1 S LOCKPORT            43.15N  78.70W
01/30/2019  M10.0 INCH       NIAGARA            NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0300 PM     SNOW             BUFFALO AIRPORT         42.94N  78.74W
01/30/2019  M16.1 INCH       ERIE               NY   NWS OFFICE

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900626
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900627

JAM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
402 PM EST WED JAN 30 2019

NYZ010>012-019-085-302300-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-Wyoming-Genesee-Northern Erie-
402 PM EST WED JAN 30 2019

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT WYOMING...ERIE...NORTHERN
CHAUTAUQUA AND GENESEE COUNTIES...

At 356 PM EST, two bands of lake effect snow are producing snow fall
rates of up to 2 inches per hour along with visibilities near zero.
Temperatures are below zero with wind chills near -25 degrees below
zero.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

Blinding snow and whiteout conditions are occurring.  A casual drive
or trip outside can quickly lead to a life threatening situation
without proper winter gear.  Please heed all travel bans.

Two separate bands are occuring east of Lake Erie.  One is over
Buffalo and edging into the Northtowns east past Batavia.  A second
and stronger band extends from the PA line, across the Boston Hills,
the Southtowns, and into far northwest Wyoming County.  These bands
are converging over Genesee County and are producing whiteout
conditions there as well.  These bands will move very little
throughout the remainder of the afternoon. Meanwhile, temperatures
will continue to drop further below zero while wind gusts exceed 35
mph at times, producing blizzard conditions at times and dangerous
wind chills.

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo, Cheektowaga, West Seneca, Clarence, Lackawanna, Batavia,
Kenmore, Depew, Amherst, Tonawanda, Dunkirk, Fredonia, Lancaster,
Hamburg, East Aurora, Hilton, Williamsville, Grand Island and Evans.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 61 and 47.

LAT...LON 4233 7974 4259 7919 4272 7909 4280 7892
      4296 7893 4296 7897 4297 7895 4313 7839
      4313 7792 4331 7777 4333 7764 4328 7765
      4331 7773 4314 7791 4271 7796 4245 7892
      4246 7893 4254 7906 4241 7906 4221 7976

Zaff