Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
704 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Frigid arctic air will pour across our forecast area today and
Thursday...and this will not only help to generate significant lake
effect snow east and northeast of the lakes...but will support
dangerously low wind chill values THROUGHOUT the region. High
pressure passing across the Mid Atlantic region late in the week
will then bring an end to the glacial weather...as day to day
temperatures will steadily climb during the upcoming weekend into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...Significant Lake Snows and Dangerously Low Wind Chill Values...

An arctic cold front will quickly sweep across our forecast area
early this morning with a reinforcing shot of frigid air in its
wake. While the core of the polar airmass will be over the Mid
Western states this morning...the deep cyclonic flow over the Great
Lakes region will circulate the bitter cold across Ohio into our
region for the afternoon and tonight. As a result...todays max
temperatures will occur during the first part of the morning with
falling mercury readings throughout the remainder of the day. In
fact...some parts of the Southern Tier may not climb above zero.
Before we get into the details about temperatures and the brutal
wind chill values...lets address the potentially paralyzing lake
snows.

As of 12z...a 220 flow was in the process of veering to 230-240 in
the wake of an arctic cold front that cleared the Niagara Frontier
within the past two hours.  This will allow a somewhat disorganized
twin band of moderately heavy lake snow to consolidate into a single
plume of heavy steady lake snow that will sit over the BUF metro
area and its immediate suburbs for several hours this morning. The
band is forecast to settle a bit further south this afternoon...
concentrating its impacts on the Southtowns and southern parts of
BUF metro. Snowfall rates of one to two inches an hour will
accompany the band...with rates of 3 inches an hour possible. If
this were a November or December band...rates could even be higher
due to stronger convergence over an even warmer lake. While the
convective depth will be over 10k feet by midday... the extent of
the frigid air will actually limit snow accumulations. Rather than
having large dendrites like the band had overnight...the shrinking
dendritic growth zone will lead to more plates and columns...which
are more dense and accumulate at a somewhat slower rate.
Nevertheless...daytime snow accumulations will approach a foot near
the Buffalo metro area and points just south and east. The new snow
will combine with wind gusts to 40 mph so that significant blowing
and drifting will be likely. In other words...near blizzard
conditions can be expected at times.

As is usually the case...the whole scenario will be delayed by a few
hours on Lake Ontario. The environment at 12z include a convective
depth of about 8k ft...but as the frigid air deepens behind the yet
to pass arctic front for that region...the cap is forecast to rise
to more than 12k ft. Again...this may sound impressive for lake
snows at this time of year...but the arctic air will push the
dendritic growth zone to under a thousand feet. This will promote
more plates and columns...a small consolation given that multiple
feet of snow will still be likely.

The lake snows off Lake Ontario will initially be aimed at the
Thousand Islands region as a 220 flow will be in place. Once the
arctic front has passed that area (14z)...the flow will veer to
around 240. This will help to focus an more organized band over the
Watertown or points just south and east...where it may persist for
much of the day. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour will be
common with up to 3 inch rates possible.

Tonight...well defined plumes of moderate to heavy lake snow will
still be found east of both lakes. The flow is expected to veer to
250-260...so the bands are forecast to push just south of both the
Buffalo and Watertown metro areas into the more typical lake effect
snowbelts. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches an hour will be common with
up to 3 inch rates possible for areas near the Tug Hill. Nighttime
snowfall amounts will be in the range of 6 to 8 inches in the heart
of the Lake Erie band over southern Erie county to about a foot on
in the area between Watertown and the Tug Hill.

Our other main concern is the intense cold that will be experienced.
As mentioned...temperatures today will be at their highest during
the morning with highs ranging from around zero across much of the
Southern Tier to about 10 near the Lake Ontario lake shore. As we
push through the late morning and afternoon though...the mercury
fall even further. This will be accompanied by wind gusts of 35 to
40 mph that will generate wind chill values of 15 to 30 BELOW.

Tonight...the arctic air will allow temperatures to fall to between
5 and 15 below zero with wind chill values bottoming out to between
25 and 35 below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
We will remain in moist cyclonic flow aloft Thursday, with the
center of the upper level low over southern Quebec. This position of
the upper level closed low will favor lake effect snow to fall due
east of the lakes. At the surface, high pressure will advance across
the Ohio Valley and towards the Virginias. As the surface high
pressure slides by to our south, the pressure gradient will increase
some which will increase the wind gusts through the day, but also
support increased convergence within a westerly flow across Lake
Ontario. Deeper moisture rotation around the low pressure system to
our northeast will cross Lake Ontario. The deeper moisture within
increased convergence over Lake Ontario, combined with still very
favorable lake effect snow parameters will promote additional feet
of snow to fall east of Lake Ontario Thursday and Thursday night.

The west flow will center the band of snow Thursday upon the Tug
Hill region, and then as the upper level low lifts northeastward a
subtle shift in winds at the surface to WNW will bring the snowband
southward some Thursday night, with snow pushing deeper across
Oswego County and towards southern Lewis and the southern Tug Hill.
Additional snow Thursday and Thursday night within the heart of the
snowband will near 2.0 to 2.5 feet.

Given the impressive omega field that will form within the wind
convergence over Lake Ontario a heavy band of snow, with snowfall
rates of at least 3 inches per hour are expected. The one thing
holding back on higher snowfall rates will be the near surface snow
dendritic growth zone...which will likely promote a finer snowflake.

Westerly flow over Lake Erie, combined with a drier profile, and a
lake that is increasing with ice coverage will make for not as
impressive snowfall totals as Lake Ontario. Snowfall Thursday of 6
to 8 inches will be focused upon the northern Chautauqua shoreline,
Southern Erie and towards western Wyoming County. As the surface
high slides by our south, it will ridge northward towards Lake Erie,
briefly backing winds such as to return a 240 flow over Lake Erie
and bring the snowband back up towards the City of Buffalo and the
airport late in the day. This northward movement should be
temporary, with the band of snow dipping back towards the southtowns
by Thursday evening. The surface high pressure will also bring drier
air northward over Lake Erie to further weaken the snowband. A
lighter wind field Thursday night will draw the snowband closer to
the Lake Erie shoreline Thursday night, where it will taper down to
flurries and scattered light snow showers by the end of the night.
Additional snow Thursday night will still be several
inches...possibly 4-5 across the Boston Hills.

Friday the core of the cold air aloft will push eastward, which will
weaken lake effect snow...now primarily to the east of Lake Ontario.
The falling inversion heights will make for lighter lake effect
snow, though the snowflake size may become bigger owing to a deeper
snow dendritic growth zone returning. A compact shortwave will bring
a storm system across the Midwest and towards the Virginias Friday.
This system may brush by our southern tier, but largely will miss us
to the south. Friday night the airmass will be dry enough to promote
a mainly dry night, with perhaps just a few snow flurries or light
snow showers early near the eastern Lake Ontario shoreline.

In addition to snow, the cold temperatures and still gusty wind will
bring the impact of wind chills during the day Thursday. The slight
uptick in winds Thursday will promote wind chill values still -25 to
-30F across the region. By Thursday night winds will be weaker and
our airmass not as cold such that the still cold wind chills will
likely fall into advisory range.

Highs Thursday in the single digits for most will become mid teens
Friday as the core of the cold air is now to our east, and a
moderating trend commences.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mid level ridge will build into the region over the weekend, and
sharpen on Monday ahead of an area of low pressure approaching from
the midwest. Warm advection starts to ramp up, as 850 mb
temperatures climb to near +2C toward Sunday afternoon. Temperatures
for Saturday will be a bit below normal, but temperatures will be
above normal Sunday through Tuesday. Chances for precipitation will
be on the increase as the warm front will push through the region
Sunday and Monday. The surface low will then track across or to the
north of our region, with a trough and cold front likely to bring
some rain showers Monday night. Colder air will build in behind the
system late Tuesday, with some rain or snow showers possible.

Hydrologic impacts could become a concern with the upcoming warm up
and potential for rain. This period will need to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The vast majority of western New York will experience VFR flight
conditions today and tonight...but the same cannot be said for KBUF
and KART where moderate to heavy lake snow will be in place.

A band of intensifying lake snow in the vcnty of KBUF this morning
will result in VLIFR conditions...with VSBYS falling below field
minimums at times. These conditions are likely to persist well into
the afternoon. Meanwhile northeast of Lake Ontario...a disorganized
band of lake snow showers in the Thousand Islands region will
gradually consolidate in the vctny of KART after about 15z.
Conditions will deteriorate at KART to LIFR as heavy snow will
become established for the midday and afternoon.

MVFR conditions will be possible at the remaining sites today...
although the vast majority of the time will be VFR.

Otherwise...strong southwest winds will gust to 35 to 40 kts for
most of the sites from later this morning through tonight.

Heavy snow near KBUF and KART this evening is forecast to push
far enough south overnight to allow for improving conditions at
both sites. VFR weather will be found elsewhere.

Outlook...

Thursday through Friday...Areas of IFR with lake effect snow
and blowing snow east and northeast of Lakes Erie and
Ontario...diminishing from west to east later Thursday night and
Friday.
Saturday...A chance of snow showers/MVFR southeast of Lake
Ontario otherwise VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
An areas of low pressure will deepen and slowly lift northeastward
across Quebec Province through Thursday. This will bring an extended
period of high end Small Craft Advisory to Gale Force conditions to
both Lakes Erie and Ontario. The strongest winds (Gales) will be
likely Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, with heavy freezing
spray also developing given the very cold temperatures.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A seiche on Lake Erie last night created a temporary ice jam between
the Power Authority Intake and Cayuga Island. While the jam has
cleared...the potential for additional seiches to occur today
and tonight is enough to warrant a flash flood watch for parts
of northern Erie county and southwestern Niagara County through
1030 pm. Areas susceptible to ice jam flooding will include
Grand Island, Cayuga Island in Niagara Falls, and the river
shoreline between North Tonawanda and Niagara Falls.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Several surges of arctic air producing bands of lake effect
snow to close out the month of January may bring daily records
for both temperatures and snowfall. Below are the record low
maximum, low minimum and daily record snow for our three primary
climate stations.

Buffalo:

	Date			Low Maximum		Low Minimum 	Daily Snow

    Tuesday 1/29	4/1934			-7/1977			6.0/1894
	Wednesday 1/30	8/1948			-3/2003			11.6/1966
	Thursday 1/31	5/1920			-11/1920		5.5/1982

Rochester:

	Date

	Tuesday 1/29	1/1873			-9/1873			8.5/1925
	Wednesday 1/30	5/1908			-12/1873		18.0/1966
	Thursday 1/31	3/1920			-10/1994		11.7/1878

Watertown:

	Date

	Tuesday 1/29	1/1952			-17/2000
	Wednesday 1/30	7/2010			-24/2010
	Thursday 1/31	6/1973			-23/2011

In addition Buffalo will finish the month of January
within the top 10 snowiest on record. Currently through
January 27th the snow total for the month is: 42.4 inches.
Below is a partial list of the top 10 snowiest months of
January on record.

	Rank	 Amount (in)	Year

	1		68.3		  1977
	2		65.9		  1985
	3		65.1		  1999
    4		56.5		  1978
	5		53.2		  1982
	..
	10		42.6		  1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for NYZ012-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ010-019-085.
     Wind Chill Warning until 6 PM EST Thursday for NYZ001>003-
     010>013-019>021-085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ006>008.
     Wind Chill Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST
     Thursday for NYZ007-008.
     Wind Chill Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST
     Thursday for NYZ004>006-014.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ003.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ001-
     002.
     Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ001-010.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
     Thursday for NYZ019-020.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ010-011.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ013.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for
         LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ042>045.
         Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Thursday for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Apffel/TMA
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...JJR/Zaff
HYDROLOGY...JJR/Apffel
CLIMATE...Thomas

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
712 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

NYZ001-311215-
Niagara-
712 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Wind Chill Warning.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.

An ice jam remains in place on the Niagara River. There a risk that
flooding will develop behind the ice jam on Wednesday, following an
increase in flows due to a lake seiche.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-311215-
Northern Erie-
712 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Winter Storm Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Advisory.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Winter Storm Warning.

An ice jam remains in place on the Niagara River. There a risk that
flooding will develop behind the ice jam on Wednesday, following an
increase in flows due to a lake seiche.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-311215-
Jefferson-Lewis-
712 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Wind Chill Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Wind Chill Warning.

Dangerously cold wind chills are possible Wednesday through Thursday
as a bitterly cold arctic airmass combines with strong winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ021-311215-
Allegany-
712 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ002-311215-
Orleans-
712 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Wind Chill Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-014-311215-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Ontario-
712 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003-311215-
Monroe-
712 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Wind Chill Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-311215-
Oswego-
712 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Wind Chill Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Wind Chill Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-311215-
Chautauqua-
712 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Advisory.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ011-311215-
Genesee-
712 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Wind Chill Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Wind Chill Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ013-311215-
Livingston-
712 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-311215-
Wyoming-
712 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Wind Chill Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Wind Chill Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ020-311215-
Cattaraugus-
712 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ085-311215-
Southern Erie-
712 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Advisory.
   Wind Chill Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Wind Chill Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-311215-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
712 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-311215-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
712 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heavy Freezing Spray Warning.
   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heavy Freezing Spray Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-311215-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
712 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-311215-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
712 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heavy Freezing Spray Warning.
   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heavy Freezing Spray Warning.
   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
530 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

NYZ001-002-010-301200-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, and Buffalo
530 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...Heavy Lake Snow for the Morning Commute...

A wide plume of moderate to heavy lake effect snow will be found
from the Buffalo metro area northward through at least 7 AM. This
area of snow will produce snow at a rate of one to two inches an
hour across Niagara...northern Erie and much of Orleans county.
Roadways will be snow covered...with untreated roads being very
difficult if not impossible to travel upon. Motorists should also
be aware of single digit temperatures with wind chill values WELL
below zero.

RSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
707 AM EST WED JAN 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     SNOW             1 NW WILLIAMSVILLE      42.97N  78.75W
01/29/2019  M8.2 INCH        ERIE               NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0548 AM     SNOW             REDFIELD                43.53N  75.83W
01/30/2019  M9.0 INCH        OSWEGO             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0645 AM     SNOW             4 W NATURAL BRIDGE      44.08N  75.58W
01/30/2019  M8.4 INCH        JEFFERSON          NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM     SNOW             BUFFALO AIRPORT         42.94N  78.74W
01/30/2019  M12.1 INCH       ERIE               NY   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900575
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900576
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900577
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900578

KRA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
805 AM EST WED JAN 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             KENMORE                 42.96N  78.87W
01/30/2019  M15.7 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900579

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
810 AM EST WED JAN 30 2019

NYZ010-085-301500-
Southern Erie-Northern Erie-
810 AM EST WED JAN 30 2019

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ERIE COUNTY AND
THE BUFFALO METRO AREA THIS MORNING...

At 800 AM EST, a plume of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates
of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be across the Buffalo metro area,
impacting the city, as well as the north and south towns this
morning. Roadways will be snow covered, with untreated roads being
very difficult if not impossible to travel upon. Winds will gust to
25 mph this morning with some blowing and drifting snow and wind
chill values will be 10 to 20 below this morning. The lake effect
snow band will shift slightly southward late this morning.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 57A and 49.

LAT...LON 4273 7908 4276 7898 4280 7892 4284 7893
      4293 7891 4306 7846 4277 7849 4261 7908
      4270 7910

Apffel