Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

314 
WGUS81 KBUF 301152
FLSBUF

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
652 AM EST WED JAN 30 2019

NYC029-063-301154-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190131T0330Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Erie NY-Niagara NY-
652 AM EST WED JAN 30 2019

...THE FLOOD WARNING FOR AN ICE JAM HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTH
CENTRAL ERIE AND SOUTHWESTERN NIAGARA COUNTIES...

At 645 AM EST, the Niagara River Control Center reported that water 
levels have dropped on the Niagara River. Levels are still high, but 
just below the level which would cause damage. No flooding is 
occurring at this time, but there is a potenial with the ice jam 
still in place.

LAT...LON 4309 7907 4311 7895 4305 7883 4297 7888
      4288 7891 4292 7890 4295 7892 4296 7893
      4296 7896 4300 7902 4302 7902 4305 7900
      4306 7900 4308 7907

$$

Apffel

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
951 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic air will continue to pour across western and central New York
through Thursday...with the combination of the bitterly cold air and
increasing winds leading to dangerously cold wind chills. At the
same time...the arctic airmass and winds will lead to high impact
lake effect snow and blowing snow and near blizzard conditions
northeast and then east of Lakes Erie and Ontario through Wednesday
night...with the lake effect snow then continuing through at least
Thursday. High pressure will then build into the region on Friday
and finally put an end to the misery...bringing much lighter winds...
diminishing lake snows...and temperatures climbing back into the
teens.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Overnight...

Off Lake Erie...as expected the lake snows were temporarily disrupted
by the passage of the wind shift/surface boundary early this evening...
but have since redeveloped from Long Point northeastward to the city
of Buffalo and the Buffalo airport. Judging from current radar trends
which suggest another northward shift is imminent...this band should
jog back northward into far Northern Erie and Niagara/Orleans counties
over the next hour or so...before wobbling back southward again in
tandem with another subtle wind shift between 11 am and midnight.
After that time the band should lock directly in over Buffalo, the
airport, Northtowns, and points ENE into Genesee County near or just
north of Batavia. Increasingly strong winds should also direct the band
to just about Rochester overnight.  Additional snow amounts, on top of
what fell during the daylight hours, should amount to 5 to 9 inches
under the band.  At least through the overnight hours, this band will
have minimal affect for the Southtowns, Boston hills, and much of
Wyoming County.

East of Lake Ontario, steady light to moderate synoptic snows are still
hanging on as of this writing...with some areas of enhancement still
noted across the higher terrain. This could produce another inch or
two before giving way to some initial disorganized lake snows around
or a little after midnight...with the latter probably becoming disrupted
for a time overnight in tandem with some brief drying...before redeveloping
again toward morning around and north of Watertown. This said...the main
event there will lag until later Wednesday.

Wednesday....

This period will feature the meat of the event that will last into
Wednesday evening.  A combination of temperatures near 0F,
borderline localized blizzard conditions under lake effect snow,
with winds resulting in wind chills near -25F will make this one of
the more extreme weather events for about 5 years (since Jan 2014).
This will result in a hazardous to dangerous situation for any one
ill-prepared for being in the outdoors. Motorists should be urged to
stay off the roads, and if absolutely necessary, take an emergency
kit.

East of Lake Erie...a stout lake band will make it's reinforce it's
own weather.  This means that once set up, it will likely resist
synoptic winds that slowly veer with time.  With this in mind, have
forced a lake band to stay put directly over KBUF and points ENE for
the morning and early afternoon.  Will nod toward the models
eventually pushing the snow further south with time, but it may only
affecting the Southtowns in the afternoon.  Further to the south,
northern Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties will likely remain out
of this event - at least until late Wed afternoon or early eve.

It is important to note that snow amounts will be secondary to wind
chills and whiteouts, but overall expect another 5-10 inches under
the band. Snow amounts will be difficult to measure, and from a
meteorological standpoint, are nearly impossible to forecast with
increasing Lake Erie ice coverage (wind speeds NOT helping),
temperatures aloft way colder than the typical dendritic growth
zone, and snowflake formation effectively nil due to winds ripping
apart any crystal formation.  This will result in a "dusty" snow
that will contribute to near zero visibilities and possibly over-
forecast snow amounts - again not that you'll be able to measure
any.  More of a concern will be drifts.

The band should eventually make it south of Buffalo sometime
Wednesday evening and refocus over the Southtowns, but snow rates by
this time may be even harder to come by, again with tiny flakes
making near zero visibility more of a problem than overall snow
amounts.  For what it's worth, another 4-8 inches are possible
within the band.

East of Lake Ontario...

The lake band near or north of Watertown should get going around or
before sunrise with continued intensity during the day.  This band
will eventually outpace the Lake Erie band in terms of intensity, as
snow rates will probably reach and possibly exceed 3"/hr by
afternoon.  The band may slowly recenter itself toward the northern
sections of the Tug Hill Plateau late in the day.  Similar to Lake
Erie, this band will play second fiddle to the extreme cold airmass,
whiteouts, and wind chills near -25F or lower.  Snow amounts under
the heart of the band will initially near 5-10 inches during the
day, but with significantly higher amounts possible Wednesday night,
where 12 hr totals could exceed a foot.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
On Thursday morning, there still will be intense lake effect
snowfall ongoing - especially east of Lake Ontario. All the
ingredients will be in place, with 850mb around -25C there will be
plenty of lake induced instability, and upstream lakes and a mid-
level trough will provide ample moisture. The heaviest snows will be
east of Lake Ontario, focused on the Tug Hill between Watertown and
Pulaski. Well aligned westerly winds and upsloping will support
localized snowfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour. Lake snow will also
continue off Lake Erie, with the steadiest snows between Dunkirk and
West Seneca...extending eastward to the Boston and Wyoming Hills. By
this time, there may be some additional ice on Lake Erie, but with
the wave action suspect that model guidance (and QPF) is
overestimating the amount of ice that will form on Lake Erie.
Because of this, the forecast is for much more snow off Lake Erie
than model guidance would otherwise suggest.

In addition to the snow, gusty winds will continue on Thursday which
will result in areas of blowing snow. The strongest winds will be
north of I-90 and west of I-81 where winds will gust to 35-40 mph.
Daytime temperatures will remain in the single digits, resulting in
bitterly cold wind chills of -20F to -30F for much of the day.

On Thursday night, high pressure will ridge from Virginia towards
western New York. This will cause winds to diminish across Lake Erie
with lake snows initially shrinking closer to the lake, and then
ending late in the night as winds go calm. It will be a different
story east of Lake Ontario, where a moderate westerly flow will
continue to support lake effect snow. The band will probably narrow
as the diminished flow allows more land breeze convergence, but it
will remain intense with a possible moisture enhancement from
Georgian Bay. By Thursday night, blowing snow will become less of a
concern, but it still will be cold with lows below zero in most
locations.

Conditions will finally improve on Friday as the weak surface high
expands into the lower Great Lakes region. Lake effect snow
southeast of Lake Ontario will diminish and coverage and intensity
during the day. There could be another 2-4 inches across Oswego
County, but compared to earlier in the event this will seem minor.
High temperatures will reach the mid-teens in most areas, but with
lighter winds it will not feel as cold.

Any additional accumulation Friday night will be light, and close to
the Lake Ontario shoreline. Otherwise it will be mainly dry, with
lows near zero.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mid level ridge will build into the region over the weekend, and
sharpen on Monday ahead of an area of low pressure approaching from
the midwest. Warm advection starts to ramp up, as 850 mb
temperatures climb to near +2C toward Sunday afternoon. Temperatures
for Saturday will be a bit below normal, but temperatures will be
above normal Sunday through Tuesday. Chances for precipitation will
be on the increase as the warm front will push through the region
Sunday and Monday. The surface low will then track across or to the
north of our region, with a trough and cold front likely to bring
some rain showers Monday night. Colder air will build in behind the
system late Tuesday, with some rain or snow showers possible.

Hydrologic impacts could become a concern with the upcoming warm up
and potential for rain. This period will need to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Off Lake Erie...heavier lake snows have redeveloped near KBUF as of
0250z...and will briefly meander across the KBUF-KIAG corridor through
midnight before settling in and persisting over/near KBUF through
the remainder of the night and into Wednesday morning...before slowly
pushing southward through the rest of Wednesday. This band may extend
as far as KROC at times later tonight and Wednesday.

East of Lake Ontario...lingering light to moderate synoptic snow and
IFR conditions will continue to gradually wind down through 05-06z...
with some disorganized lake effect snow/IFR then affecting KART and
points northward at times overnight into early Wednesday morning. On
Wednesday the lake snows will then intensify and slowly drift southward
toward northern portions of the Tug Hill...while continuing to impact
KART through much of the day.

Within the organized lake snows...expect VLIFR to LIFR conditions in
snow and blowing snow. Outside of these...general VFR to MVFR conditions
will prevail. Also...already brisk winds will increase markedly on
Wednesday...with gusts to 30-35 knots becoming likely in many areas.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Friday...Areas of IFR with lake effect snow and
blowing snow east and northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario...diminishing
from west to east later Thursday night and Friday.
Saturday...A chance of snow showers/MVFR southeast of Lake Ontario...
otherwise VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
An areas of low pressure will deepen and slowly lift northeastward
across Quebec Province through Thursday. This will bring an extended
period of high end Small Craft Advisory to Gale Force conditions to
both Lakes Erie and Ontario. The strongest winds (Gales) will be
likely Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, with heavy freezing
spray also developing given the very cold temperatures.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
An ice jam is still in place on the Niagara River. The Ontario River
Control Center reports that water levels have dropped behind the ice
jam, allowing the Flash Flood Watch to be dropped. Efforts to break
up the ice jam are ongoing.

Another rise in the river level is expected Wednesday morning due to
a lake seiche. Depending on the status of the ice jam, there is a
risk that levels will rise behind the ice jam. Areas susceptible to
ice jam flooding include Grand Island, Cayuga Island in Niagara
Falls, and the river shoreline between North Tonawanda and Niagara
Falls.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Several surges of arctic air producing bands of lake effect
snow to close out the month of January may bring daily records
for both temperatures and snowfall. Below are the record low
maximum, low minimum and daily record snow for our three primary
climate stations.

Buffalo:

	Date			Low Maximum		Low Minimum 	Daily Snow

    Tuesday 1/29	4/1934			-7/1977			6.0/1894
	Wednesday 1/30	8/1948			-3/2003			11.6/1966
	Thursday 1/31	5/1920			-11/1920		5.5/1982

Rochester:

	Date

	Tuesday 1/29	1/1873			-9/1873			8.5/1925
	Wednesday 1/30	5/1908			-12/1873		18.0/1966
	Thursday 1/31	3/1920			-10/1994		11.7/1878

Watertown:

	Date

	Tuesday 1/29	1/1952			-17/2000
	Wednesday 1/30	7/2010			-24/2010
	Thursday 1/31	6/1973			-23/2011

In addition Buffalo will finish the month of January
within the top 10 snowiest on record. Currently through
January 27th the snow total for the month is: 42.4 inches.
Below is a partial list of the top 10 snowiest months of
January on record.

	Rank	 Amount (in)	Year

	1		68.3		  1977
	2		65.9		  1985
	3		65.1		  1999
    4		56.5		  1978
	5		53.2		  1982
	..
	10		42.6		  1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for NYZ012-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ010-
     019-085.
     Wind Chill Warning from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday
     for NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ006>008.
     Wind Chill Warning from 5 PM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday
     for NYZ007-008.
     Wind Chill Warning from 2 PM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday
     for NYZ004>006-014.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for
     NYZ003.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ001-002.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM EST
     Thursday for NYZ019-020.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ010-011.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for NYZ013.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Gale Warning from 3 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 PM EST
         Thursday for LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for
         LOZ042>045.
         Gale Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR/Zaff
NEAR TERM...JJR/Zaff
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...Apffel/TMA
AVIATION...AR/JJR/Zaff
MARINE...JJR/Zaff
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
CLIMATE...Thomas

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
943 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

LEZ020-LOZ030-310245-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
943 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-310245-
Jefferson-Lewis-
943 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Wind Chill Warning.

Dangerously cold wind chills are possible Wednesday through Thursday
as a bitterly cold arctic airmass combines with strong winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ021-310245-
Allegany-
943 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ002-310245-
Orleans-
943 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Wind Chill Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-014-310245-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Ontario-
943 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003-310245-
Monroe-
943 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Wind Chill Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-310245-
Oswego-
943 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Wind Chill Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-310245-
Chautauqua-
943 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Advisory.
   Wind Chill Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ011-310245-
Genesee-
943 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Wind Chill Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ013-310245-
Livingston-
943 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-310245-
Wyoming-
943 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Wind Chill Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ020-310245-
Cattaraugus-
943 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ085-310245-
Southern Erie-
943 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Advisory.
   Wind Chill Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-310245-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
943 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heavy Freezing Spray Warning.
   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heavy Freezing Spray Warning.
   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-310245-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
943 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-310245-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
943 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heavy Freezing Spray Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heavy Freezing Spray Warning.
   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-310245-
Niagara-
943 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Wind Chill Warning.

An ice jam remains in place on the Niagara River. There a risk that
flooding will develop behind the ice jam on Wednesday, following an
increase in flows due to a lake seiche.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-310245-
Northern Erie-
943 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Advisory.
   Wind Chill Warning.

An ice jam remains in place on the Niagara River. There a risk that
flooding will develop behind the ice jam on Wednesday, following an
increase in flows due to a lake seiche.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
820 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     SNOW             2 NW TONAWANDA          43.00N  78.90W
01/29/2019  M7.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900569

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
840 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     SNOW             S WATERTOWN             43.97N  75.91W
01/29/2019  M4.7 INCH        JEFFERSON          NY   COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900570

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
856 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     SNOW             BUFFALO AIRPORT         42.94N  78.74W
01/29/2019  M5.4 INCH        ERIE               NY   NWS OFFICE

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900571

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
936 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     SNOW             3 SSW REDFIELD          43.50N  75.85W
01/29/2019  M7.0 INCH        OSWEGO             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900572

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
959 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     SNOW             BUFFALO AIRPORT         42.94N  78.74W
01/29/2019  M5.8 INCH        ERIE               NY   NWS OFFICE

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900573

JAM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1012 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2019

NYZ001>003-010-011-300415-
Orleans-Genesee-Niagara-Monroe-Northern Erie-
1012 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2019

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ERIE...
NIAGARA...ORLEANS...NORTHWESTERN MONROE AND NORTHWESTERN GENESEE
COUNTIES...

At 1002 PM EST, a band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates
of 2 inches per hour is across the Buffalo Northtowns, and northern
Genesee County. This band of snow is expected to move northward
across Niagara and Orleans Counties this upcoming hour, before
settling back southward across the City of Buffalo and the Airport.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this band of lake effect
snow. The gusty winds will create blowing and drifting snow further
reducing the visibility.

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo, Niagara Falls, North Tonawanda, Clarence, Lockport,
Batavia, Kenmore, Amherst, Tonawanda, Lancaster, Brockport, Medina,
Albion, Hilton, and Williamsville.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 54 and 48.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4314 7904 4327 7907 4341 7857 4342 7840
      4341 7796 4339 7775 4335 7768 4297 7825
      4281 7892 4293 7891 4299 7901 4306 7900
      4308 7908

Thomas