Alert archive / Texas / Tornado Watches in 2018
Tornado Watch 414
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 13, 2018, 3:06 PM CDT for 13 counties in Texas. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 13, 2018, 3:06 PM CDT (20:06 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 13, 2018, 8:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 55 kt
Counties Angelina County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Houston County, TX, Madison County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Panola County, TX, Rusk County, TX, San Augustine County, TX, Shelby County, TX, Smith County, TX, Trinity County, TX
The radar
The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 157 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 30%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 20%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 20%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 10%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 40%
Warnings issued inside it
10 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 3:21 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | SHV | Cherokee, Smith | 54 min |
| Oct 13, 4:12 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SHV | Cherokee, Rusk, Smith | 63 min |
| Oct 13, 5:07 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | SHV | Panola, Rusk | 38 min |
| Oct 13, 5:11 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SHV | Cherokee, Gregg, Rusk, Smith | 29 min |
| Oct 13, 5:29 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | SHV | Panola | 46 min |
| Oct 13, 6:07 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | HGX | Houston | 38 min |
| Oct 13, 6:13 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | SHV | Panola | 7 min |
| Oct 13, 6:43 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SHV | Panola | 19 min |
| Oct 13, 7:28 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SHV | Nacogdoches | 16 min |
| Oct 13, 7:33 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | SHV | Nacogdoches | 12 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Shreveport, LA (KBAD), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 166 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 988 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 49 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 149 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 208 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted.
687 WWUS20 KWNS 132004 SEL4 SPC WW 132004 TXZ000-140100- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 414 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A couple of longer-lived supercells may continue east across parts of east-central Texas through early evening. All hazards are possible before the tornado risk diminishes later this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west southwest of Lufkin TX to 15 miles north northwest of Longview TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 413... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Grams
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 7:22 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crane, Crockett, Ector, Glasscock, Irion, Jeff Davis and 9 more | 2 hr |
| Oct 12, 8:14 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Andrews, Brewster, Crane, Culberson, Ector, Glasscock and 13 more | 8 hr |
| Oct 12, 10:58 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crane, Ector, Glasscock, Loving, Midland, Pecos and 6 more | 2 hr |
| Oct 13, 1:40 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Concho, Crane, Crockett, Ector, Gillespie, Glasscock and 16 more | 65 min |
| Oct 13, 1:59 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Concho, Crockett, Irion, Kimble, McCulloch, Mason and 5 more | 6 hr |
| Oct 13, 7:40 AM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Brown, Coleman, Concho, McCulloch, Menard, Runnels and 3 more | 4 hr |
| Oct 13, 7:47 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Brown, Burnet, Coleman, Comanche and 13 more | 118 min |
| Oct 13, 9:54 AM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Burnet, Comanche, Coryell and 22 more | 9 hr |
| Oct 13, 11:04 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Brown, Burnet, Comanche and 27 more | 116 min |
| Oct 13, 1:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Burnet, Cherokee and 23 more | 2 hr |
| Oct 13, 5:34 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Bell, Falls, Freestone, Leon, Milam and 1 more | 56 min |
| Oct 13, 6:41 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Angelina, Harrison, Houston, Madison, Nacogdoches, Panola and 4 more | 94 min |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.