Alert archive / Texas / Tornado Watches in 2018
Tornado Watch 413
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 13, 2018, 9:54 AM CDT for 28 counties in Texas. It was in force for 9 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 13, 2018, 9:54 AM CDT (14:54 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 13, 2018, 7:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 9 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 28 counties
Anderson County, TX, Bell County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Falls County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, Llano County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Mills County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Williamson County, TX
The radar
The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 93 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 50%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 30%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 40%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 20%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 10%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 10%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 60%
Warnings issued inside it
17 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 9:56 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | FWD | Comanche, Eastland | 21 min |
| Oct 13, 11:00 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FWD | Erath, Hamilton | 45 min |
| Oct 13, 12:16 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FWD | Ellis, Johnson | 29 min |
| Oct 13, 12:44 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FWD | Ellis | 46 min |
| Oct 13, 12:47 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FWD | Ellis, Hill, Navarro | 43 min |
| Oct 13, 12:52 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FWD | Hill, Navarro | 38 min |
| Oct 13, 1:23 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FWD | Ellis, Hill, Navarro | 52 min |
| Oct 13, 1:34 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FWD | Kaufman | 41 min |
| Oct 13, 1:39 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FWD | Bosque, Hill | 40 min |
| Oct 13, 1:47 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FWD | Navarro | 28 min |
| Oct 13, 2:08 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FWD | McLennan | 52 min |
| Oct 13, 2:12 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FWD | Henderson, Navarro | 48 min |
| Oct 13, 2:55 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FWD | Anderson, Henderson | 50 min |
| Oct 13, 3:09 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FWD | Limestone | 51 min |
| Oct 13, 3:34 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FWD | Freestone | 41 min |
| Oct 13, 3:40 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FWD | Anderson | 13 min |
| Oct 13, 4:08 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FWD | Freestone, Leon | 52 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 2.9 hours before the alert went out and 122 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 5 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 469 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 45 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 258 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 268 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.7
The text
As transmitted.
241 WWUS20 KWNS 131451 SEL3 SPC WW 131451 TXZ000-132300- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 413 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 955 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Texas * Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 955 AM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Persistent supercell structures across the Concho Valley and Big Country will spread east into this afternoon across central Texas. Rich low-level moisture and strong wind profiles will support a risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles south southwest of Stephenville TX to 35 miles east of Corsicana TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 412... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Grams
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 7:22 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crane, Crockett, Ector, Glasscock, Irion, Jeff Davis and 9 more | 2 hr |
| Oct 12, 8:14 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Andrews, Brewster, Crane, Culberson, Ector, Glasscock and 13 more | 8 hr |
| Oct 12, 10:58 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crane, Ector, Glasscock, Loving, Midland, Pecos and 6 more | 2 hr |
| Oct 13, 1:40 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Concho, Crane, Crockett, Ector, Gillespie, Glasscock and 16 more | 65 min |
| Oct 13, 1:59 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Concho, Crockett, Irion, Kimble, McCulloch, Mason and 5 more | 6 hr |
| Oct 13, 7:40 AM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Brown, Coleman, Concho, McCulloch, Menard, Runnels and 3 more | 4 hr |
| Oct 13, 7:47 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Brown, Burnet, Coleman, Comanche and 13 more | 118 min |
| Oct 13, 11:04 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Brown, Burnet, Comanche and 27 more | 116 min |
| Oct 13, 1:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Burnet, Cherokee and 23 more | 2 hr |
| Oct 13, 3:06 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Angelina, Cherokee, Gregg, Harrison, Houston, Madison and 7 more | 5 hr |
| Oct 13, 5:34 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Bell, Falls, Freestone, Leon, Milam and 1 more | 56 min |
| Oct 13, 6:41 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Angelina, Harrison, Houston, Madison, Nacogdoches, Panola and 4 more | 94 min |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.