Tornado Warning 25, NWS Fort Worth, TX

485 
WWUS54 KFWD 132131
SVSFWD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
431 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

TXC161-289-132200-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-181013T2200Z/
Freestone TX-Leon TX-
431 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN FREESTONE AND NORTHEASTERN LEON COUNTIES...
    
At 430 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 8 miles northeast of Buffalo, or 15 miles southeast of
Fairfield, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Freestone and northeastern Leon Counties, including the
following locations... Oakwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a
vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter now!  Get to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building and avoid
windows.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3149 9605 3162 9607 3165 9602 3169 9583
      3167 9581 3168 9578 3163 9580 3160 9577
      3161 9575 3165 9575 3165 9574 3162 9571
      3158 9573 3156 9571 3155 9575 3153 9576
      3152 9574 3149 9572
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 248DEG 19KT 3156 9598 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

Godwin

460 
WWUS54 KFWD 132151
SVSFWD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
451 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

TXC161-289-132200-
/O.EXP.KFWD.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-181013T2200Z/
Freestone TX-Leon TX-
451 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN FREESTONE AND NORTHEASTERN
LEON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 500 PM CDT...
                
The rotation associated with the storm that prompted the Tornado
Warning has weakened, and no longer appears capable of producing a
tornado. Therefore the Tornado Warning will be allowed to expire.
However heavy rain is still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT for central Texas.

LAT...LON 3149 9605 3162 9607 3165 9602 3169 9583
      3167 9581 3168 9578 3163 9580 3160 9577
      3161 9575 3165 9575 3165 9574 3162 9571
      3158 9573 3156 9571 3155 9575 3153 9576
      3152 9574 3149 9572
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 267DEG 22KT 3157 9584 

$$

Godwin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
347 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight/

Thunderstorms will end from northwest to southeast through sunset
with the passage of the upper level shortwave and the arrival of
cooler and drier air behind a cold front. We will not remove PoPs
across the south completely tonight since the cold front may have
a difficult time clearing the CWA.

We will clear several of the western counties out of Tornado Watch
413 with the release of the afternoon package, but will leave the
southeast zones in the watch through its duration since they will
remain in the unstable and highly sheared warm sector.

Even though much of the rain will end before 7 PM, we will let
the current Flash Flood ride until expiration to account for
lingering street flooding.

Otherwise, it will remain cloudy and damp through the night with
patchy areas of fog. However, extensive cloud cover should prevent
widespread dense fog from developing. The cloud cover will also
keep low temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

79

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Sunday through Friday/

A very unsettled weather pattern is expected across the entire
region Sunday through next weekend with multiple opportunities for rain
and very cool/cold temperatures.

Sunday will be somewhat of a transitional day as today's cold
front attempts to lift back to the north in response to another
developing low pressure system in the west. As the front lifts
northward it will interact with lingering moisture to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The better chance of storms
will arrive across the northwest zones late Sunday afternoon when
a strong cold front enters the region. There will be some
potential for strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon with
moderate mid level lapse rate and favorable shear. The extent of
the severe weather will largely hinge on how much the air can heat
up in the warm sector given the extensive cloud cover expected.
Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary hazards with the
strongest storms.

The front will move through the entire region Sunday night/Monday,
bringing much colder and breezy conditions along with some post
frontal showers and thunderstorms. Post frontal precipitation
chances will continue Monday night/Tuesday as a cutoff low
deepens over the Desert Southwest, supplying large scale lift and
moisture.

This general wet and cool pattern will persist through
the end of the week. We will likely need another flash flood watch
for portions if not all of the area for at least the first half
of next week, but for now we will hold off on issuing one and let
later shifts assess what areas are most vulnerable to flooding.
The only good news is that the mid level instability will decrease
next week so convective precip will be less likely.

Precipitation chances will end from north to south Friday
night/next Saturday when another strong cold front moves across
the Southern Plains.

After a much warmer day Sunday with highs in the 70s and 80s,
temperatures will cool significantly with highs Monday and Tuesday
generally in the 40s and lower 50s. We will even see some lows in
the 30s across the northwest zones Sunday night and Monday night.
High temperatures Wednesday through Friday will slowly warm into
the 50s and lower 60s with lows mainly in 40s.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1252 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018/
/18z TAFs/

A line of thunderstorms is currently exiting most of the DFW TAF
sites, and will soon move through the Waco TAF site this afternoon
as well. Included a TEMPO group for Waco, which will need to be
monitored over the next few hours. Winds have shifted to the north
across the Metroplex sites and should remain northerly through
the end of the forecast period. Expect winds to shift at ACT late
this evening.

As for tonight and tomorrow, expect widespread IFR and possible
some MVFR ceilings to continue across the Metroplex TAF sites and
spread into Central Texas overnight. We'll continue to monitor
the potential for showers and thunderstorms for Sunday as model
guidance is able to come into agreement.

Villanueva

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    60  77  43  47  43 /  10  50  80  80  80
Waco                65  84  48  50  46 /  20  40  80  80  80
Paris               60  75  46  49  44 /  10  40  80  80  70
Denton              57  75  42  46  43 /  10  50  80  80  70
McKinney            59  76  44  47  44 /  10  50  80  80  70
Dallas              62  78  45  48  45 /  10  50  80  80  80
Terrell             63  79  47  50  46 /  20  50  80  80  80
Corsicana           65  82  49  51  46 /  20  40  80  80  80
Temple              67  84  48  50  46 /  40  40  80  80  80
Mineral Wells       58  78  41  46  42 /  10  50  80  80  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ093>095-
103>106-118>121-130>134-141-143>145.

&&

79/79

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
408 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-140915-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
408 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across
North and Central Texas through this evening. Heavy rainfall will be
the main threat although there will be a severe threat generally
south of I-20. Damaging winds will be the main severe threat,
although there will be an isolated tornado threat from the Waco area
southward. Rain and thunderstorms will end later this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Rain and thunderstorms will increase in coverage late Sunday
afternoon and continue through the overnight hours and into Tuesday.
There is a low chance for severe weather Sunday afternoon and
evening with hail being the main threat. The more significant threat
through late Tuesday will be the potential for heavy rainfall.
Additional rainfall amounts in excess of 5 inches will be possible
resulting in flash flooding. Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall
will also result in river flooding through the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation may be requested this morning into midday
mainly south of I-20.

Dunn

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
129 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0107 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WAXAHACHIE              32.40N  96.85W
10/13/2018                   ELLIS              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND DAMAGE REPORTED AT WAXAHACHIE HIGH SCHOOL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
213 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 PM     TORNADO          1 N ANGUS               32.03N  96.43W
10/13/2018                   NAVARRO            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED TORNADO ON I-45 NORTH OF
            ANGUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
215 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     TORNADO          HILLSBORO               32.00N  97.13W
10/13/2018                   HILL               TX   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA PHOTOS RECEIVED OF DAMAGE IN HILLSBORO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
322 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             10 SE ATHENS            32.10N  95.73W
10/13/2018  E1.50 INCH       HENDERSON          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY SPOTTER ON 175
            SOUTH OF ATHENS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MILDRED                 32.04N  96.34W
10/13/2018                   NAVARRO            TX   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF DAMAGE NEAR MILDRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
404 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     TORNADO          4 SE TEAGUE             31.54N  96.18W
10/13/2018                   FREESTONE          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED TORNADO 7 NNW OF BUFFALO.