Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2018

Mesoscale Discussion 1571

October 12, 201815 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 12, 2018, 7:22 PM CDT for 15 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 12, 2018, 7:22 PM CDT (00:22 UTC)
Expired: Oct 12, 2018, 9:45 PM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 60%

Counties Crane County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Ector County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Irion County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Midland County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410Oct 12, 8:10 PM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 0.4 hours before the alert went out and 105 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 481 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -5 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1136 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -36 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 65 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: -0.1
Supercell composite: -1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 12, 8:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Andrews, Brewster, Crane, Culberson, Ector, Glasscock and 13 more	8 hr
Oct 12, 10:58 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Crane, Ector, Glasscock, Loving, Midland, Pecos and 6 more	2 hr
Oct 13, 1:40 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Concho, Crane, Crockett, Ector, Gillespie, Glasscock and 16 more	65 min
Oct 13, 1:59 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Concho, Crockett, Irion, Kimble, McCulloch, Mason and 5 more	6 hr
Oct 13, 7:40 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Brown, Coleman, Concho, McCulloch, Menard, Runnels and 3 more	4 hr
Oct 13, 7:47 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bell, Bosque, Brown, Burnet, Coleman, Comanche and 13 more	118 min
Oct 13, 9:54 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Burnet, Comanche, Coryell and 22 more	9 hr
Oct 13, 11:04 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Brown, Burnet, Comanche and 27 more	116 min
Oct 13, 1:56 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anderson, Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Burnet, Cherokee and 23 more	2 hr
Oct 13, 3:06 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Angelina, Cherokee, Gregg, Harrison, Houston, Madison and 7 more	5 hr
Oct 13, 5:34 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anderson, Bell, Falls, Freestone, Leon, Milam and 1 more	56 min
Oct 13, 6:41 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Angelina, Harrison, Houston, Madison, Nacogdoches, Panola and 4 more	94 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2018 Every mesoscale discussion in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.