Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
354 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday Night/
Tornado Watch 414 is currently in effect until 8 pm for much of
Texas south of I-20. Currently, there is an area of light to
moderate showers along the I-30 corridor stretching back to near
Tyler. Just west of this activity is a line of showers and strong
thunderstorms that has been aided by a surface low south of Dallas
and the instability out ahead of it. Some of these storms can turn
severe this afternoon and evening with isolated tornadoes and
large hail the primary threats. Otherwise, this line is
paralleling an inverted trough that is riding northeastward over
East Texas. This activity will continue to push northeastward into
the I-30 corridor where the higher rain chances are expected
throughout the next 36 hours. A cold front will begin to push
through the region, from north to south, during the afternoon and
evening hours on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will form along
this front as it moves southward. Heavier rain activity will also
form along the 700/850 mb front which is what will keep rain
chances up through the remainder of the forecast period.
Temperatures will remain near normal but will begin to drop after
the cold front. /35/

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday/
For the start to the work week the Four State Region will be in a
favorable wet weather pattern sandwiched between a large upper
level ridge of high pressure situated off the Southern Atlantic
Region that will expand Southwest across the Gulf of Mexico, and
an upper level longwave trough trailing Southwest from a closed
upper low over the Upper Midwest and reaching across the Four
Corners Region and to near the Southern California and Upper Baja
Coast. A surface cold front will be over Southwest Arkansas and
into East and Northeast Texas and approaching Northwest Louisiana.
Overnight Monday a closed upper low will take shape in the bottom
of the longwave trough of low pressure and split off from the
main flow, while slowly drifting toward the Four Corners Region
during mid week. Rain and thunderstorm chances will remain high
with a slight decrease in the afternoon Wednesday. The forecast
area will remain in between the upper level ridge over the Gulf of
Mexico, North Florida, and the South Atlantic Region and the
upper low over the Four Corners Region extending the chance for
rain and thunderstorms but slightly less than those of the first
half of the work week. With the thick cloud cover and cooler air
over the area a change in the daytime highs and overnight lows
will be fall like. Highs falling Monday and will be in the 50s and
60s through mid week with warming readings into the late week. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  67  69 /  60  60  60  70
MLU  72  86  69  77 /  30  30  30  50
DEQ  62  75  54  54 /  80  50  90  80
TXK  65  77  57  57 /  80  50  80  80
ELD  67  78  65  67 /  60  60  60  70
TYR  66  78  53  54 /  70  50  80  80
GGG  68  80  59  59 /  70  60  70  70
LFK  74  85  67  69 /  50  40  40  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
341 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ167-142045-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-
341 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma and east Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Thunderstorms will intermittently move across portions of the
region along I 30, with more isolated storms expected for the
remainder of the region through tonight. However, no widespread
hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Another round of thunderstorms may accompany a strong cold front
late Sunday into Sunday night. Lightning and heavy rain will be
the primary hazards.

Low thunderstorm chances will continue throughout much of the
upcoming week as a series of upper-level disturbances moves
northeast atop a shallow cool air mass at the surface. However,
severe weather is not anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will not be needed through tonight.

TXZ136>138-149>153-165-166-142045-
Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-
Angelina-San Augustine-
341 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east Texas and
northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Thunderstorms will move across East Texas, and although the
intensity may diminish into the evening hours, a few strong or
severe storms will be possible. Isolated tornadoes, large hail,
and damaging winds would be the primary hazard with any severe
storms. Heavy rain may result in some isolated flooding issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Another round of thunderstorms may accompany a strong cold front
late Sunday into Sunday night. Lightning and heavy rain will be
the primary hazards.

Low thunderstorm chances will continue throughout much of the
upcoming week as a series of upper-level disturbances moves
northeast atop a shallow cool air mass at the surface. However,
severe weather is not anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters may be requested late this
afternoon or this evening across portions of East Texas.

TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-142045-
Red River-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-
Marion-
341 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Thunderstorms will move across East Texas, and although the
intensity may diminish into the evening hours, a few strong or
severe storms will be possible. Damaging winds would be the
primary hazard with any severe storms. Heavy rain may result in
some isolated flooding issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Another round of thunderstorms may accompany a strong cold front
late Sunday into Sunday night. Lightning and heavy rain will be
the primary hazards.

Low thunderstorm chances will continue throughout much of the
upcoming week as a series of upper-level disturbances moves
northeast atop a shallow cool air mass at the surface. However,
severe weather is not anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters may be requested late this
afternoon or this evening across portions of East Texas.