Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
305 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

In a bit of a lull right now with morning convection having
stabilized conditions. Convection is firing along a distinct
outflow boundary over northeast AR. The boundary becomes less
distinct has farther to west into NW AR. Another shortwave that
extends form south central KS into central OK will shift northeast
with lift increasing over the area, especially the western cwfa
late this afternoon and this early this evening. MLCAPE values off
the HRRR reach 1000-1500 j/kg with around 30kts 0-6km bulk shear
which would support multicell or possibly supercells with a large
hail and damaging wind risk for a few hours before the wave lifts
off to the northeast. Questions still consist of how long
convection will linger into the eastern counties overnight. Have
raised rain chances using a blend of cams/short term guidance.

In general, Monday looks more quiet with weak mid level height
rises.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Mid level shortwave ridging and height rises are expected through
midweek as an upstream closed upper low moves into the western
CONUS. Can't rule out some diurnally driven isolated pulse
convection through midweek, but coverage looks limited. The
western upper trough opens up and lifts well northwest of the
area. Late in the week a blocking upper level pattern develops
with a slow moving upper low moving north out of the Gulf of
Mexico and another moving east from the western CONUS. Chaotic
upper level flow doesn't generate much confidence in the forecast.
May see an uptick in diurnal convection late in the period, but
no major systems are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: An upper level disturbance will move
northeast from OK with scattered thunderstorms developing or
moving into the area late this afternoon (toward 22z). Have tempo
groups for the most likely time frame. Guidance shows chances for
lower ceilings (IFR or low end MVFR ceilings) for a few hours
toward 12z. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will generally be
light.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Burchfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
438 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-212145-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
438 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

Elevated hail risk.
Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
Limited flooding risk.
Elevated lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and move north
and northeast through parts of southeast Kansas and central and
southwest Missouri. Some of these storms may be severe with hail
to the size of half dollars and damaging wind gusts. Frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall can also be expected with
these storms. The threat for severe storms will begin to diminish
by late evening.

Due to recent heavy rainfall, the potential for flooding will
persist into tonight mainly from extreme southeastern Kansas into
west-central Missouri.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible at times this
week, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. In
general the storm coverage is expected to be more limited and
organized severe weather is not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening for damaging
winds and hail reports.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

DSA

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
348 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

MOZ088-202130-
Jasper MO-
348 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN JASPER COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM CDT...

At 347 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Duenweg, or 7 miles south of Carthage, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Carthage...                       Sarcoxie...
Fidelity...                       Avilla...
Reeds...                          Maple Grove...
Dudenville...

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 44 between mile markers 14 and 28.
 Interstate 49 between mile markers 36 and 41, and near mile marker
46.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3735 9422 3735 9410 3734 9409 3730 9408
      3729 9405 3715 9406 3705 9415 3706 9440
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 218DEG 26KT 3708 9433

Wise

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
353 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

MOZ088-093-202145-
Jasper MO-Newton MO-
353 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN NEWTON AND WESTERN
JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 353 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Galena, or near Baxter Springs, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Joplin...                         Carthage...
Webb City...                      Carl Junction...
Galena...                         Oronogo...
Carterville...                    Duquesne...
Duenweg...                        Jasper...
Airport Drive...                  Leawood...
Silver Creek...                   Alba...
Purcell...                        Shoal Creek Drive...
Saginaw...                        Carytown...
Neck City...                      Redings Mill...

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 44 between mile markers 0 and 13.
 Interstate 49 near mile marker 35, between mile markers 42 and 45,
and between mile markers 47 and 56.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southeastern Kansas...and southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3736 9452 3735 9422 3706 9440 3700 9451
      3700 9462 3715 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 218DEG 26KT 3703 9462

Wise

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
358 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     HAIL             1 N FIDELITY            37.08N 94.31W
05/20/2018  E0.75 INCH       JASPER             MO   PUBLIC

&&

FEH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
437 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

MOZ066-077-078-202230-
Vernon MO-Cedar MO-Barton MO-
437 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BARTON...
NORTHWESTERN CEDAR AND SOUTHEASTERN VERNON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM
CDT...

At 437 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Lamar, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Montevallo...                     Jerico Springs...
Milford...                        Olympia...
Caplinger Mills...                Filley...
Wagoner...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southwestern and west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3785 9417 3783 9368 3763 9392 3758 9404
      3758 9407 3756 9407 3752 9412 3756 9424
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 213DEG 29KT 3759 9412

Wise

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
439 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

MOZ103-104-202230-
Taney MO-Stone MO-
439 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TANEY AND CENTRAL
STONE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 439 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kimberling City, moving north at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Branson...                        Table Rock Lake...
Silver Dollar City...             Kimberling City...
Reeds Spring...                   Indian Point...
Branson West...                   Galena...
Mccord Bend...                    Coney Island...
Cape Fair...

LAT...LON 3659 9354 3683 9350 3682 9334 3682 9324
      3681 9321 3657 9337
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 195DEG 23KT 3665 9343

Wise