River Flood Warning 29, NWS Springfield, MO

048 
WGUS83 KSGF 201613
FLSSGF
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1113 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Jacks Fork at Alley Spring affecting Shannon County 
   
.Heavy rainfall over the last 24 hours will result in significant 
rises on the Jacks Fork river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for updates or local media for 
updates.

Additional river information can be found on our Advanced Hydrologic 
Prediction Service page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/ 
index.php?wfo=sgf 

&&

MOC203-210711-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-180521T1442Z/
/ALYM7.1.ER.180520T1812Z.180521T0000Z.180521T0842Z.NO/
1113 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

...For the Jacks Fork at Alley Spring...
* At 10:30 AM Sunday The stage was 7.6 feet. 
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to
  rise to near 11.9 feet by this evening.  The river will fall below 
  flood stage by early tomorrow.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Moderate flooding begins at the gage site.  
  Water inundates the entire picnic area one quarter mile downstream 
  from the gage site.

&&


               FLOOD  OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM

LOCATION       STAGE STAGE  DAY TIME     Mon   Tue   Wed

Jacks Fork River Basin
  Alley Spring      9   7.6 Sun 10 AM    7.9   5.0   3.9


&&


LAT...LON 3717 9139 3711 9140 3710 9150 3711 9152
      3717 9150                       
 

$$

429 
WGUS83 KSGF 210151
FLSSGF
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
851 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018


 ...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Jacks Fork at Alley Spring affecting Shannon County
   
.River levels have fallen ending the flood threat. 
affect the public]

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for updates or local media for 
updates.

&&

MOC203-210221-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-180521T1442Z/
/ALYM7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
851 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

The Flood Warning has been cancelled for: 
 The Jacks Fork at Alley Spring.
* At  8:30 PM Sunday The stage was 5.5 feet. 
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet. 
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 8.8 feet. The 
  river will fall to 5.1 feet by .

&&


               FLOOD  OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM

LOCATION       STAGE STAGE  DAY TIME     Mon   Tue   Wed

Jacks Fork River Basin
  Alley Spring      9   5.5 Sun 08 PM   5.1   4.0   3.7


&&


LAT...LON 3717 9139 3711 9140 3710 9150 3711 9152
      3717 9150                       
 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
320 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Several clusters of convection were ongoing from central Missouri
back to the southwest into southern Kansas and central Oklahoma.
The largest area of convection was centered in Oklahoma within a
better instability axis and stronger llj. MU capes in our area
were generally around 1000-1500j/kg with the highest values in far
southern missouri where that area has been missed from the bulk of
the precip. Surface low pressure was over Central Kansas with a
trailing boundary into Oklahoma as well as extending up into
northwest Missouri.

Expect convection to continue to develop and move into and through
the area this morning. Just enough instability and shear exists
for a marginal severe threat with large hail and damaging winds
the main threats this morning. PW values are around 1.2-1.5in and
we have seen heavy precip rates therefore some flash flooding is
possible with any training storms, especially across locations
that have already seen heavy rainfall from the last 24 hours.

High res guidance indicates that the bulk of this precip will move
through the morning with a potential lull around mid day. By the
afternoon and evening, more shortwave energy will move into the
region and interact with the remaining front over our area. Our
atmosphere may be pretty worked over by then, however if the
atmosphere can destabilize, then storms that develop could become
severe. RAP forecasts for late afternoon into the evening show
about 2000j/kg of ML cape with 30kts of 0-6km bulk shear. Mid
level lapse rates dont look to be nearly as impressive as
yesterday therefore not currently expecting quite the episode we
experienced yesterday however some damaging winds and large hail
would be possible during the afternoon and evening hours across
the entire area if this instability materializes. With high PW
values forecast, locally heavy rainfall and flooding could also
occur. Precip will end from west to east during the early
overnight hours. Lastly, high temperatures today will vary quite a
bit and be dependent on the amount of cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Monday and Tuesday both look primarily dry other than a scattered
storm or two across far southern missouri. Height rises are
occuring both days and not seeing a strong trigger for storms at
this point. Temperatures will remain very warm.

Several shortwaves embedded in the flow approach by midweek with
rainfall chances lingering into the end of the week. Temps will
remain above average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Will monitor showers and thunderstorms that develop in Kansas and
Oklahoma tonight. They will attempt to move in from the west
overnight. Currently have VCTS at the sites. Outside of
thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected. Winds will remain out
of the southeast. Additional showers and storms are possible
during the day Sunday however coverage is uncertain at this
juncture.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
339 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-210845-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
339 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

 Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will move through during
the morning hours from Kansas and Oklahoma. A few of these storms
could be severe with winds up to 60 mph and hail up to the size
of quarters. Frequent cloud to ground lightning will occur. Flash
flooding could develop where storms train over the same areas.

 Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
across the area during the afternoon and evening hours. If enough
instability can develop then a few severe thunderstorms would be
possible with large hail to the size of quarters and damaging
winds in excess of 60 mph. Flash flooding is also possible in the
heavier thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms should come to an
end during the late evening and overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday and
Tuesday mainly across far southern Missouri. Severe thunderstorms
are not expected at this time.

Additional thunderstorm chances will occur from mid week into the
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be possible across the area today and
tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
221 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             2 E SQUIRES             36.86N 92.59W
05/19/2018  E2.00 INCH       DOUGLAS            MO   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA PICTURES OF HAIL AT LEAST
            2.00IN IN DIAMETER.

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
233 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             SEYMOUR                 37.14N 92.76W
05/19/2018  E1.25 INCH       WEBSTER            MO   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA PICTURES OF HAIL SLIGHTLY
            LARGER THAN QUARTERS.

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
250 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE NEWBURG            37.92N 91.89W
05/19/2018                   PHELPS             MO   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINES DOWN ON HIGHWAY T NORTH OF
            NEWBURG.

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
350 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             SAGINAW                 37.02N 94.47W
05/19/2018  E1.00 INCH       NEWTON             MO   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA VIDEO OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN
            SAGINAW.

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE STOCKTON          37.74N 93.78W
05/19/2018                   CEDAR              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            3 MILES NORTH OF STOCKTON J HWY 9 TO 14"
            TREE DOWN WITH SEVERAL SMALL TREES DOWN.

&&

BURCHFIELD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
429 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

KSZ073-097-101-201015-
Cherokee KS-Bourbon KS-Crawford KS-
429 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BOURBON...
NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 515 AM CDT...

At 429 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mccune, or 13 miles southwest of Girard, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsburg...                      Frontenac...
Girard...                         Arma...
Cherokee...                       Sherman...
Scammon...                        Mccune...
Franklin...                       Walnut...
West Mineral...                   Hepler...
Roseland...                       Beulah...
Carona...                         Farlington...
Brazilton...                      Sherwin...
Porterville...                    Greenbush...

LAT...LON 3771 9509 3776 9508 3767 9462 3715 9489
      3724 9507 3738 9507 3739 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0929Z 208DEG 27KT 3736 9500

Lindenberg