Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
313 PM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018

...Heavy rain and severe storms possible through this evening...

Currently...

Bulk shear is running higher than previously expected...40-50
knots across parts of the Pikes Peak Region. Additionally, Mixed
Layer CAPES are running an estimated 1,000-2,000 J/kg. With
steepening mid level lapse rates through the afternoon, should all
be sufficient for rotating storms. Plus, high res models are
showing supercellular structures, particularly over the Pikes
Peak Region. As storms continue to evolve through the afternoon
into the evening, bowing structures noted...suggestive of high
wind potential. Also, some initial quarter size hail possible
mountains and immediately adjacent plains as storms get going
this afternoon. So, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect
until 7 this evening. The Flash Flood Watch also remains in
effect. Busy weather ahead in the short term. lw

For later tonight...HRRR shows a secondary round of stronger
convection moving across the greater Pikes Peak region from mid
evening to around midnight. Dunno if this will come to pass as
HRRR is notorious for producing 2nd rounds of storms and not
materializing (or much weaker than initially forecasted). For now
will draw up fcst based on HRRR output and keep convection going
through the nighttime hours going on the plains.

Tomorrow...

Anticipate most of the activity tomorrow will be over the mountains
as plains at this time appear to be too stable and relatively drier.
With precip over the mtns, burn scar flooding will be the main
concern tomorrow, especially the Spring burn scar.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018

...Active Thunderstorm and Locally Heavy Rain Pattern to Continue...

Southern Colorado will remain in an active monsoon pattern through
the week.  The center of a large upper level high pressure system
will remain over the southwest U.S. through the period.  This will
allow monsoon moisture to rotate around the high, adjoin with
shortwaves moving over the top of the ridge, and then enter the
eastern plains through the back door.  Forecast models have
shortwaves moving through the stronger flow to the north, clipping
southern Colorado almost daily through the weekend, before things
start to dry out early next week.  This is a good setup for rain
across the eastern slopes and plains as each shortwave will help to
initiate and organize convection.  Also, each shortwave will likely
send a boundary south which will help to focus low level moisture.
The combination of the two will help to realize all the monsoonal
moisture that is available in the atmosphere. With each day that
passes this week, antecedent soil moisture will increase. As a
result, the flash flood threat will escalate over time. Burn scars
will be primary targets for flash flooding through the week but
urban areas will also be prime targets.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018

Thunderstorms and low cigs will be the primary issues at KCOS and
KPUB rest of today and this evening. Storms will move over the
region this afternoon, with a secondary round being indicated by the
short range guidance later this evening. Low cigs will be likely at
both KPUB and KCOS tonight into tomorrow morning. Thunderstorms will
likely remain over the mtns tomorrow.

KALS will be VFR, with isold TSRA during the afternoon and
evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ072>089-
093>099.

&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1148 AM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018

COZ058>089-093>099-241800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1148 AM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Flash flooding is possible this afternoon and evening across the
region. High resolution guidance continues to indicate
thunderstorms, capable of producing very heavy rain, will develop
by mid afternoon and and move southeast across the southern
mountains and then I-25 corridor region. Some of these models
explicitly show intense storms moving over the Colorado Springs
and Pueblo regions. Heavy rain is also being indicated over the
numerous burn scars, especially Waldo Canyon. Heavy rain will also
be possible over the remainder of the plains.

In addition to the heavy rain potential, severe thunderstorms
will be possible across the area, and these storms will be capable
of producing damaging winds up to 70 mph and hail up to teh size
of ping pong balls.

An additional round of thunderstorms capable of producing heavy
rain will be possible later this evening across the region.

Residents and visitors alike should be weather aware today and
tonight, and be prepared to seek safe shelter if dangerous
weather develops.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Moisture will remain in place across the area throughout the
week, and thunderstorms will be possible each day. At this time
the best chance for widespread storms will be Wednesday, Thursday
and Saturday, with the eastern mountains and plains having the
best chance for heavy rainfall. The main threats from storms will
be locally heavy downpours, small hail, wind gusts to 45 mph and
lightning. There will the potential for flash flooding each day,
especially on recent burn scars. By late week, some severe
thunderstorms may be possible as winds aloft increase over the
eastern plains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
highly likely this afternoon and tonight across the eastern
mountains and plains.

Hodanish

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
222 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0221 PM     HAIL             6 ENE HILLSIDE          38.29N 105.50W
07/23/2018  M0.75 INCH       FREMONT            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CLOSER TO DIME SIZED THE SPOTTER SAID.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
223 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

COZ074-088-232100-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
223 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

At 222 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Segundo, or 18 miles west of Trinidad, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cokedale, Segundo, Boncarbo and Weston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3709 10504 3733 10491 3723 10448 3699 10463
      3699 10486
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 291DEG 15KT 3718 10485

KT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
235 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             3 N SILVER CLIFF        38.17N 105.45W
07/23/2018  M1.00 INCH       CUSTER             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CU18 WAS MOBILE, SAID HE OBSERVED PLENTY OF
            PEA SIZED HAIL, UP TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
253 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             9 W PALMER LAKE         39.13N 105.06W
07/23/2018  M0.75 INCH       TELLER             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
259 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

COZ074-075-088-232130-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft CO-
259 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL HUERFANO AND
SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

At 258 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stonewall, or 25 miles west of Trinidad, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cokedale, Gulnare, Spanish Peaks, Boncarbo, Stonewall, Segundo and
Weston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 3714 10507 3742 10496 3731 10452 3699 10470
      3699 10486
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 320DEG 13KT 3721 10496

KT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
329 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

COZ074-075-087-088-232200-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft CO-
329 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HUERFANO AND
SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM MDT...

At 329 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gulnare, or 21 miles northwest of Trinidad, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Trinidad, Aguilar, Cokedale, Starkville, Gulnare, Boncarbo, Hoehne
and Spanish Peaks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 3721 10499 3750 10492 3757 10431 3709 10436
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 262DEG 21KT 3739 10478

KT