Alert archive / Colorado / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Pueblo, CO

July 23, 2018El Paso County, Pueblo County, Colorado

NWS Pueblo, CO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 23, 2018, 4:56 PM MDT for El Paso County, Pueblo County, Colorado. It was in force for 49 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 23, 2018, 4:56 PM MDT (22:56 UTC)
Expired: Jul 23, 2018, 5:45 PM MDT
In force: 49 min
Issued by: NWS Pueblo, CO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties El Paso County, CO, Pueblo County, CO

The radar

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 48 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 23, 1:27 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 187 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 267 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -81 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 981 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -4 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 80 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

015 
WUUS55 KPUB 232256
SVRPUB
COC041-101-232345-
/O.NEW.KPUB.SV.W.0147.180723T2256Z-180723T2345Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
456 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southwestern El Paso County in east central Colorado...
  North central Pueblo County in southeastern Colorado...

* Until 545 PM MDT.

* At 454 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Fountain, or
  13 miles southeast of Colorado Springs, moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
           damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
           wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Southeastern Colorado Springs, Fountain, Hanover, Fort Carson,
  Pinon, Security, Security-Widefield, Stratmoor and Pueblo West.

THIS STORM HAS A LONG HISTORY OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT FLASH 
FLOODING AND DAMAGING HAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10489 3881 10471 3855 10419 3840 10478
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 322DEG 14KT 3867 10468 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Hodanish

2 follow-up statements

566 
WWUS55 KPUB 232302
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
502 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

COC041-101-232345-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-180723T2345Z/
El Paso CO-Pueblo CO-
502 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN EL PASO AND NORTH CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTIES...

At 501 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Fountain, or 15
miles southeast of Colorado Springs, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Colorado Springs, Fountain, Hanover, Fort Carson, Pinon,
Security, Security-Widefield, Stratmoor and Pueblo West.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10489 3881 10471 3855 10419 3840 10478
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 322DEG 14KT 3865 10466 

HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Hodanish

311 
WWUS55 KPUB 232312
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
512 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

COC041-101-232345-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-180723T2345Z/
El Paso CO-Pueblo CO-
512 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN EL PASO AND NORTH CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTIES...

At 511 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles south of
Fountain, or 20 miles southeast of Colorado Springs, moving southeast
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Colorado Springs, Fountain, Hanover, Fort Carson, Pinon,
Security, Security-Widefield, Stratmoor and Pueblo West.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10489 3881 10471 3855 10419 3840 10478
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 335DEG 20KT 3857 10465 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Hodanish

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 23, 3:13 PM MDT, 1 hour 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 23, 3:13 PM MDT, 1 hour 43 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
313 PM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018

...Heavy rain and severe storms possible through this evening...

Currently...

Bulk shear is running higher than previously expected...40-50
knots across parts of the Pikes Peak Region. Additionally, Mixed
Layer CAPES are running an estimated 1,000-2,000 J/kg. With
steepening mid level lapse rates through the afternoon, should all
be sufficient for rotating storms. Plus, high res models are
showing supercellular structures, particularly over the Pikes
Peak Region. As storms continue to evolve through the afternoon
into the evening, bowing structures noted...suggestive of high
wind potential. Also, some initial quarter size hail possible
mountains and immediately adjacent plains as storms get going
this afternoon. So, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect
until 7 this evening. The Flash Flood Watch also remains in
effect. Busy weather ahead in the short term. lw

For later tonight...HRRR shows a secondary round of stronger
convection moving across the greater Pikes Peak region from mid
evening to around midnight. Dunno if this will come to pass as
HRRR is notorious for producing 2nd rounds of storms and not
materializing (or much weaker than initially forecasted). For now
will draw up fcst based on HRRR output and keep convection going
through the nighttime hours going on the plains.

Tomorrow...

Anticipate most of the activity tomorrow will be over the mountains
as plains at this time appear to be too stable and relatively drier.
With precip over the mtns, burn scar flooding will be the main
concern tomorrow, especially the Spring burn scar.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018

...Active Thunderstorm and Locally Heavy Rain Pattern to Continue...

Southern Colorado will remain in an active monsoon pattern through
the week.  The center of a large upper level high pressure system
will remain over the southwest U.S. through the period.  This will
allow monsoon moisture to rotate around the high, adjoin with
shortwaves moving over the top of the ridge, and then enter the
eastern plains through the back door.  Forecast models have
shortwaves moving through the stronger flow to the north, clipping
southern Colorado almost daily through the weekend, before things
start to dry out early next week.  This is a good setup for rain
across the eastern slopes and plains as each shortwave will help to
initiate and organize convection.  Also, each shortwave will likely
send a boundary south which will help to focus low level moisture.
The combination of the two will help to realize all the monsoonal
moisture that is available in the atmosphere. With each day that
passes this week, antecedent soil moisture will increase. As a
result, the flash flood threat will escalate over time. Burn scars
will be primary targets for flash flooding through the week but
urban areas will also be prime targets.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018

Thunderstorms and low cigs will be the primary issues at KCOS and
KPUB rest of today and this evening. Storms will move over the
region this afternoon, with a secondary round being indicated by the
short range guidance later this evening. Low cigs will be likely at
both KPUB and KCOS tonight into tomorrow morning. Thunderstorms will
likely remain over the mtns tomorrow.

KALS will be VFR, with isold TSRA during the afternoon and
evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ072>089-
093>099.

&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 23, 11:48 AM MDT, 5 hours 8 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1148 AM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018

COZ058>089-093>099-241800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1148 AM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Flash flooding is possible this afternoon and evening across the
region. High resolution guidance continues to indicate
thunderstorms, capable of producing very heavy rain, will develop
by mid afternoon and and move southeast across the southern
mountains and then I-25 corridor region. Some of these models
explicitly show intense storms moving over the Colorado Springs
and Pueblo regions. Heavy rain is also being indicated over the
numerous burn scars, especially Waldo Canyon. Heavy rain will also
be possible over the remainder of the plains.

In addition to the heavy rain potential, severe thunderstorms
will be possible across the area, and these storms will be capable
of producing damaging winds up to 70 mph and hail up to teh size
of ping pong balls.

An additional round of thunderstorms capable of producing heavy
rain will be possible later this evening across the region.

Residents and visitors alike should be weather aware today and
tonight, and be prepared to seek safe shelter if dangerous
weather develops.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Moisture will remain in place across the area throughout the
week, and thunderstorms will be possible each day. At this time
the best chance for widespread storms will be Wednesday, Thursday
and Saturday, with the eastern mountains and plains having the
best chance for heavy rainfall. The main threats from storms will
be locally heavy downpours, small hail, wind gusts to 45 mph and
lightning. There will the potential for flash flooding each day,
especially on recent burn scars. By late week, some severe
thunderstorms may be possible as winds aloft increase over the
eastern plains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
highly likely this afternoon and tonight across the eastern
mountains and plains.

Hodanish

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 23, 4:15 PM MDT, 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
415 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     HAIL             1 WNW WOODLAND PARK     39.00N 105.06W
07/23/2018  M0.50 INCH       TELLER             CO   PUBLIC

&&

Local storm report, Jul 23, 4:23 PM MDT, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
423 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      1 E CHIPITA PARK        38.92N 104.99W
07/23/2018                   EL PASO            CO   PUBLIC

            MILE MARKER 291 ON HWY 24 THERE HAS BEEN
            REPORTS OF A DEBRIS FLOW.

&&

Local storm report, Jul 23, 4:26 PM MDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
426 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     FLOOD            1 NNE GREEN MOUNTAIN FA 38.94N 105.02W
07/23/2018                   EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING OF FOUNTAIN CREEK AT GREEN MOUNTAIN
            FALLS. CREEK IS OUT OF BANKS.

&&

Local storm report, Jul 23, 4:32 PM MDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
432 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             2 N BLACK FOREST        39.05N 104.70W
07/23/2018  M0.50 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Local storm report, Jul 23, 4:43 PM MDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
443 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S COLORADO SPRINGS    38.77N 104.83W
07/23/2018  E60 MPH          EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60MPH WINDS AND PEA SIZED HAIL.

&&

Local storm report, Jul 23, 4:50 PM MDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
450 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     HAIL             3 NE FOUNTAIN           38.71N 104.67W
07/23/2018  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VIA HAM RADIO.

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Pueblo, CO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 22, 6:08 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Crowley	52 min
Jul 22, 6:21 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Las Animas	39 min
Jul 22, 6:24 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Kiowa	51 min
Jul 22, 6:30 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Las Animas	30 min
Jul 22, 6:46 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	Kiowa	29 min
Jul 22, 6:53 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	Las Animas	24 min
Jul 22, 7:02 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Bent	43 min
Jul 22, 7:16 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Kiowa	44 min
Jul 22, 7:31 PM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PUB	Kiowa	2 hr
Jul 22, 7:36 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Bent	39 min
Jul 22, 7:40 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Las Animas	50 min
Jul 22, 8:09 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	Baca, Bent, Prowers	36 min
Jul 22, 8:15 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Baca	45 min
Jul 22, 8:44 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Bent	46 min
Jul 22, 8:53 PM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PUB	Bent, Prowers	114 min
Jul 22, 8:54 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Baca	36 min
Jul 22, 8:57 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	Bent, Prowers	33 min
Jul 22, 9:04 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	Baca	26 min
Jul 22, 9:28 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	Baca	62 min
Jul 22, 10:27 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Baca	48 min
Jul 22, 11:13 PM MDT	Flash Flood Watch	PUB	Alamosa, Baca, Bent, Chaffee, Costilla, Crowley and 11 more	25 hr
Jul 23, 1:18 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Saguache	27 min
Jul 23, 1:41 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Fremont	34 min
Jul 23, 1:46 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Saguache	44 min
Jul 23, 2:01 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	Fremont	44 min
Jul 23, 2:09 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Saguache	51 min
Jul 23, 2:11 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Custer	49 min
Jul 23, 2:13 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	Custer, Fremont	32 min
Jul 23, 2:20 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	Teller	40 min
Jul 23, 2:23 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB		37 min
Jul 23, 2:38 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	El Paso, Teller	52 min
Jul 23, 2:59 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB		31 min
Jul 23, 3:24 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	El Paso, Teller	51 min
Jul 23, 3:29 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Huerfano	31 min
Jul 23, 3:42 PM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PUB	El Paso, Teller	3 hr
Jul 23, 3:48 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	PUB	El Paso, Teller	27 min
Jul 23, 4:07 PM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	PUB	El Paso, Teller	3 hr
Jul 23, 4:14 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	El Paso, Teller	46 min
Jul 23, 4:21 PM MDT	River Flood Warning	PUB	El Paso	3 hr
Jul 23, 4:22 PM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	PUB	Costilla, Huerfano	3 hr
Jul 23, 4:34 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	El Paso, Teller	26 min
Jul 23, 4:47 PM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	PUB	El Paso	3 hr
Jul 23, 5:14 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	El Paso, Pueblo	46 min
Jul 23, 5:20 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	PUB	El Paso, Pueblo	25 min
Jul 23, 5:26 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	Fremont	64 min
Jul 23, 5:56 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	Crowley, Otero, Pueblo	49 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Colorado, 2018 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.