Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
608 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect VFR conditions tonight and Wednesday morning, for the most
part.  KCNM and KPEQ appear to have the best chance to be affected
by TSRA through 23/03Z, then all terminals could see at least
temporary MVFR ceilings in the 23/12-23/15Z timeframe.  More
thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon, but will wait an
issuance or two before adding anything to the forecast due to low
probability.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018/

Expansive CU field observed in visible imagery with near
homogeneous surface Td with no surface boundary present. Clouds
are so much so that are limiting SB heating and thus we have
trended down PoPs a few points for remainder of the PM across the
PB. Backed flow thru 7H indicates that low-level mstr will
continue to remain in the mtns today, a far wwd position for this
time of yr. Water vapor does show the mid-level mst axis is moving
e leaving steep LR's. This with se flow thru about 750mb does
favor storms developing in or INVOF mtns. Storms will then be
favored to slowly move newd. Initially GDP Mtns area is favored
then SE NM and Van Horn-Davis Mtns. Pretty good agreement between
NAM12/NAM4K on this scenario and we will concentrate mostly high
end sct PoPs in these areas into the evening. Strong to possibly
severe multi- cell storms are supported by ML CAPES around 2000
J/KG, 0-6km bulk shear 20-25kts and 25-30 degree T-Td spreads thru
early- mid evening. NAM12 suggests precip will move into the PB
between 12Z- 18Z Wed? We are not optimistic this will happen
largely because it is not the typical scenario for this time of yr
and the NAM4K dissipates precip as it moves into PB, a more
common scenario. This scenario feeds back into the convective
potential on Wed PM, NAM12 leaves more stable conditions in wake
of exiting precip while NAM4KM rather robustly develops storms
during peak heating along mtns from GDP Mtns to between Davis and
Chisos Mtns, to near Pecos River. So again we will have scattered
PoPs INVOF/just e of the mtns. Mid-level ridging/weakening flow
aloft will be the set- up on Thur and mostly isold-slight chance
PoPs warranted across the w again. As aforementioned ridge
develops and persists temps will start to soar again 1st across
the w on Fri, but expanding into PB over the weekend into early
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  90  67  92 /  10  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       63  89  63  93 /  60  40  20  20
Dryden                         68  89  68  93 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  66  89  66  92 /  10  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 63  86  63  88 /  60  30  20  20
Hobbs                          62  86  62  90 /  50  30  20  20
Marfa                          57  87  56  89 /  30  20  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           67  90  68  93 /  20  20  10  10
Odessa                         67  90  68  93 /  20  20  10  10
Wink                           66  92  66  95 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
131 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-231845-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
131 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018 /1231 PM MDT Tue May 22 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening across the
Guadalupe Mountains and the plains of Southeast New Mexico... with
lower chances across the Upper Trans Pecos and Western Permian Basin.
Some of these storms could become strong with a few becoming severe
with large hail... damaging wind... and locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Wednesday mainly over the
higher terrain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
613 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

TXZ074-230000-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area TX-
613 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN REEVES AND NORTH CENTRAL
JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 612 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Kent, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of western Reeves and
north central Jeff Davis Counties.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 191 and 196.

LAT...LON 3091 10412 3104 10420 3109 10392 3088 10392
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 263DEG 12KT 3098 10411

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
623 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

TXZ058-230030-
Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos TX-
623 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN REEVES AND EAST
CENTRAL CULBERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 623 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 26
miles north of Kent, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Reeves
and east central Culberson Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3175 10418 3148 10392 3137 10426 3146 10433
      3148 10434
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 207DEG 11KT 3146 10423

67

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
648 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

TXZ074-230030-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area TX-
648 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM CDT...

At 646 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Balmorhea State Park, or 16 miles north of Fort Davis,
moving east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo Trail Scout Camp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3072 10401 3077 10414 3090 10410 3088 10395
      3086 10384 3075 10383
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 269DEG 103KT 3083 10383

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
655 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

TXZ058-230030-
Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos TX-
655 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL REEVES COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM CDT...

At 654 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Toyah, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Reeves
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 10377 3132 10389 3137 10396 3148 10392
      3150 10394 3154 10397 3157 10400 3160 10396
      3162 10376 3152 10361 3144 10357
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 238DEG 90KT 3142 10386

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
710 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

TXZ074-230045-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area TX-
710 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTY
UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 710 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Fort Davis in open country, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Jeff
Davis County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 10371 3073 10380 3077 10366 3078 10361
      3074 10356 3070 10350 3064 10349
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 147DEG 22KT 3062 10374

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
721 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

TXZ058-230100-
Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos TX-
721 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN REEVES...
NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON AND NORTHWESTERN LOVING COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM
CDT...

At 720 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Orla, or 27 miles west of Mentone, moving north at
20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Red Bluff Reservoir.

LAT...LON 3195 10426 3199 10395 3195 10394 3195 10393
      3194 10392 3167 10396 3168 10416
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 180DEG 16KT 3176 10407

24