Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
608 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect VFR conditions tonight and Wednesday morning, for the most
part.  KCNM and KPEQ appear to have the best chance to be affected
by TSRA through 23/03Z, then all terminals could see at least
temporary MVFR ceilings in the 23/12-23/15Z timeframe.  More
thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon, but will wait an
issuance or two before adding anything to the forecast due to low
probability.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018/

Expansive CU field observed in visible imagery with near
homogeneous surface Td with no surface boundary present. Clouds
are so much so that are limiting SB heating and thus we have
trended down PoPs a few points for remainder of the PM across the
PB. Backed flow thru 7H indicates that low-level mstr will
continue to remain in the mtns today, a far wwd position for this
time of yr. Water vapor does show the mid-level mst axis is moving
e leaving steep LR's. This with se flow thru about 750mb does
favor storms developing in or INVOF mtns. Storms will then be
favored to slowly move newd. Initially GDP Mtns area is favored
then SE NM and Van Horn-Davis Mtns. Pretty good agreement between
NAM12/NAM4K on this scenario and we will concentrate mostly high
end sct PoPs in these areas into the evening. Strong to possibly
severe multi- cell storms are supported by ML CAPES around 2000
J/KG, 0-6km bulk shear 20-25kts and 25-30 degree T-Td spreads thru
early- mid evening. NAM12 suggests precip will move into the PB
between 12Z- 18Z Wed? We are not optimistic this will happen
largely because it is not the typical scenario for this time of yr
and the NAM4K dissipates precip as it moves into PB, a more
common scenario. This scenario feeds back into the convective
potential on Wed PM, NAM12 leaves more stable conditions in wake
of exiting precip while NAM4KM rather robustly develops storms
during peak heating along mtns from GDP Mtns to between Davis and
Chisos Mtns, to near Pecos River. So again we will have scattered
PoPs INVOF/just e of the mtns. Mid-level ridging/weakening flow
aloft will be the set- up on Thur and mostly isold-slight chance
PoPs warranted across the w again. As aforementioned ridge
develops and persists temps will start to soar again 1st across
the w on Fri, but expanding into PB over the weekend into early
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  90  67  92 /  10  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       63  89  63  93 /  60  40  20  20
Dryden                         68  89  68  93 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  66  89  66  92 /  10  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 63  86  63  88 /  60  30  20  20
Hobbs                          62  86  62  90 /  50  30  20  20
Marfa                          57  87  56  89 /  30  20  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           67  90  68  93 /  20  20  10  10
Odessa                         67  90  68  93 /  20  20  10  10
Wink                           66  92  66  95 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
131 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-231845-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
131 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018 /1231 PM MDT Tue May 22 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening across the
Guadalupe Mountains and the plains of Southeast New Mexico... with
lower chances across the Upper Trans Pecos and Western Permian Basin.
Some of these storms could become strong with a few becoming severe
with large hail... damaging wind... and locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Wednesday mainly over the
higher terrain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
747 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

TXZ074-230115-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area TX-
747 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTY
UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 747 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Davis Mountains State Park, or near Fort Davis, moving northeast at
10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Davis, Davis Mountains State Park, Black Mountain, Indian Lodge
and Fort Davis National Historical Site.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3056 10376 3051 10404 3079 10405 3075 10393
      3075 10389 3069 10385 3063 10380
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 161DEG 11KT 3061 10398

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
806 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

TXZ058-230145-
Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos TX-
806 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL REEVES COUNTY UNTIL
845 PM CDT...

At 805 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles west of Toyah, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Reeves
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3124 10403 3136 10407 3153 10386 3136 10372
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 240DEG 10KT 3132 10400

67

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
833 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 PM     HAIL             11 S CARLSBAD           32.24N 104.24W
05/22/2018  M1.75 INCH       Eddy               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AKL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
850 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

NMZ027-028-TXZ258-230230-
Eddy County Plains NM-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County NM-
Guadalupe Mountains TX-
850 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN EDDY AND NORTH
CENTRAL CULBERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT/830 PM MDT/...

At 850 PM CDT/750 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 7 miles northeast of McKittrick Canyon, or 14 miles
northeast of Pine Springs, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Carlsbad Caverns National Park and Whites City.

LAT...LON 3227 10441 3202 10429 3200 10442 3200 10449
      3199 10449 3196 10468 3210 10475
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 247DEG 14KT 3205 10465

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
859 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

TXZ081-230230-
Big Bend Area TX-
859 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BREWSTER COUNTY
UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 858 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 3
miles north of Terlingua, or 14 miles northeast of Lajitas, moving
north at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Study Butte.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2926 10345 2928 10364 2951 10367 2946 10346
TIME...MOT...LOC 0158Z 166DEG 50KT 2942 10362

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
929 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 PM     HAIL             4 W ALPINE              30.36N 103.73W
05/22/2018  E1.75 INCH       Brewster           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MATT.SALERNO