Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
317 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.UPDATE...Severe Thunderstorm Watch #118 has been issued for
Southeast New Mexico and Far West Texas thru 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Wednesday...if you like very or
extremely hot weather than this weekend and next week is for you.

Have a strong storm over the Davis Mtns at this time. Some more
storms are starting to form over the Guadalupe Mtns. These storms
will continue to increase in coverage and intensity this
aftn/evening over SE NM and West Texas as moisture is banked
against the mtns in combination with intense heating and upslope
flow. These storms will (should) dissipate before reaching the
central PB tonight since they will be moving into the ridge and BL
stabilization. Have followed the 12Z NAM NEST since it seems to
have a good handle on the pattern. Storms could have gusty
winds...large hail...and very heavy rains. Even though CAPE's will
be in excess of 3000 J with little CIN in SE New Mexico and West
Texas the limiting factor will be weak vertical shear.

Storms will be on the decrease late tonight then dry weather is
expected thru the weekend as ridging builds over the southern
Plains. With the H85 ridge edging closer and the the low level
moisture mixing temps will rise to record levels over the weekend.
Expect temps 100-105 over the PB...around 105 in the Trans
Pecos...and 110+ possible over the Rio Grande. Temps will be
similar on Monday.

Ridging will remain entrenched over the southern Plains next week.
Have kept the CWA mainly dry...but there could be enough moisture
trapped under the ridge combined with intense heating for an
isolated storm. But the main story will be the extremely hot
temperatures. With H85 temps exceeding 30C...and as hot as 34C
from Tue thru Thursday it's possible we can break the all-time
high temperature record for the month of May at Midland Intl Air
and Space Port (the current all-time record for May at MAF is 108
degrees set in 1989 and 2000). For now...have high temps Tue and
Wed around 105 in the PB...up to 110 in the Trans Pecos...and up
to 115 along the Rio Grande. It's entirely possible that high
temps could be as much as five degrees hotter than the current
forecast.

The temperatures next week will be dangerously hot. Remember to
wear loose clothing and drink plenty of water (stay away from
caffeine and alcohol since that will dehydrate you). Do not leave
children...the elderly...and pets unattended in vehicles! Remember
to stay hydrated!

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  93  72  98 /  10   0  10  10
Carlsbad                       63  92  67  99 /  40  10  10   0
Dryden                         70  94  72  97 /  20   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  67  92  70  98 /  40  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 62  85  68  90 /  30  10  10   0
Hobbs                          62  91  65  96 /  40   0  10   0
Marfa                          60  87  63  91 /  30  30  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           69  93  71  98 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         68  93  71  98 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                           68  94  70 100 /  40   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/33

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
118 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-241830-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
118 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018 /1218 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening mainly across
southeast New Mexico southward to the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.
A few storms will also be possible across the far western and
northwestern Permian Basin south to the Big Bend area. Storms could
become strong with a few severe, large hail, damaging winds, and
locally heavy rain being the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms, some strong, are possible Thursday mainly in the
Davis Mountains area. Strong winds and heavy rain will be the main
threats. A few storms will possible on Friday across the eastern
areas.

The weather is expected to turn unusually hot starting Saturday and
will gain momentum through the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
432 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND GST     21 W ORLA               31.83N 104.27W
05/23/2018  M55.00 MPH       Culberson          TX   PUBLIC

&&

AKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
437 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     HAIL             6 WSW WHITES CITY       32.14N 104.47W
05/23/2018  E1.75 INCH       Eddy               NM   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            GOLF BALL HAIL IN CARLSBAD CAVERNS NATIONAL PARK

&&

MATT.SALERNO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
448 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             31 W ORLA               31.83N 104.44W
05/23/2018  E2.00 INCH       Culberson          TX   PUBLIC

            OVER 20 VEHICLES DAMAGED ALONG FM RD 652.

&&

MATT.SALERNO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
450 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

TXZ058-074-075-232230-
Pecos TX-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos TX-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area TX-
450 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PECOS...SOUTH CENTRAL
REEVES AND EASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 450 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Saragosa, or 24 miles southeast of Toyah, moving northeast at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Balmorhea Lake, Saragosa and Verhalen.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 208 and 237.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3077 10368 3115 10378 3123 10335 3080 10319
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 246DEG 6KT 3102 10356

29

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
359 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2018

NMZ028-033-232245-
Eddy County Plains NM-Central Lea County NM-
359 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN EDDY AND WEST
CENTRAL LEA COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 358 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 7 miles west of Maljamar, or 30 miles east of Artesia,
moving north at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Maljamar, Halfway and Loco Hills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations
and available television stations for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3296 10363 3230 10377 3234 10398 3247 10409
      3297 10393
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 202DEG 14KT 3286 10389

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
404 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2018

NMZ028-232245-
Eddy County Plains NM-
404 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM MDT...

At 404 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hope, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3293 10484 3297 10480 3296 10431 3276 10476
      3289 10485
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 231DEG 20KT 3286 10477

03