Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
608 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect VFR conditions tonight and Wednesday morning, for the most
part.  KCNM and KPEQ appear to have the best chance to be affected
by TSRA through 23/03Z, then all terminals could see at least
temporary MVFR ceilings in the 23/12-23/15Z timeframe.  More
thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon, but will wait an
issuance or two before adding anything to the forecast due to low
probability.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018/

Expansive CU field observed in visible imagery with near
homogeneous surface Td with no surface boundary present. Clouds
are so much so that are limiting SB heating and thus we have
trended down PoPs a few points for remainder of the PM across the
PB. Backed flow thru 7H indicates that low-level mstr will
continue to remain in the mtns today, a far wwd position for this
time of yr. Water vapor does show the mid-level mst axis is moving
e leaving steep LR's. This with se flow thru about 750mb does
favor storms developing in or INVOF mtns. Storms will then be
favored to slowly move newd. Initially GDP Mtns area is favored
then SE NM and Van Horn-Davis Mtns. Pretty good agreement between
NAM12/NAM4K on this scenario and we will concentrate mostly high
end sct PoPs in these areas into the evening. Strong to possibly
severe multi- cell storms are supported by ML CAPES around 2000
J/KG, 0-6km bulk shear 20-25kts and 25-30 degree T-Td spreads thru
early- mid evening. NAM12 suggests precip will move into the PB
between 12Z- 18Z Wed? We are not optimistic this will happen
largely because it is not the typical scenario for this time of yr
and the NAM4K dissipates precip as it moves into PB, a more
common scenario. This scenario feeds back into the convective
potential on Wed PM, NAM12 leaves more stable conditions in wake
of exiting precip while NAM4KM rather robustly develops storms
during peak heating along mtns from GDP Mtns to between Davis and
Chisos Mtns, to near Pecos River. So again we will have scattered
PoPs INVOF/just e of the mtns. Mid-level ridging/weakening flow
aloft will be the set- up on Thur and mostly isold-slight chance
PoPs warranted across the w again. As aforementioned ridge
develops and persists temps will start to soar again 1st across
the w on Fri, but expanding into PB over the weekend into early
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  90  67  92 /  10  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       63  89  63  93 /  60  40  20  20
Dryden                         68  89  68  93 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  66  89  66  92 /  10  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 63  86  63  88 /  60  30  20  20
Hobbs                          62  86  62  90 /  50  30  20  20
Marfa                          57  87  56  89 /  30  20  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           67  90  68  93 /  20  20  10  10
Odessa                         67  90  68  93 /  20  20  10  10
Wink                           66  92  66  95 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
131 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-231845-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
131 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018 /1231 PM MDT Tue May 22 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening across the
Guadalupe Mountains and the plains of Southeast New Mexico... with
lower chances across the Upper Trans Pecos and Western Permian Basin.
Some of these storms could become strong with a few becoming severe
with large hail... damaging wind... and locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Wednesday mainly over the
higher terrain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
710 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

TXZ074-230045-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area TX-
710 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTY
UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 710 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Fort Davis in open country, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Jeff
Davis County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 10371 3073 10380 3077 10366 3078 10361
      3074 10356 3070 10350 3064 10349
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 147DEG 22KT 3062 10374

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
721 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

TXZ058-230100-
Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos TX-
721 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN REEVES...
NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON AND NORTHWESTERN LOVING COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM
CDT...

At 720 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Orla, or 27 miles west of Mentone, moving north at
20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Red Bluff Reservoir.

LAT...LON 3195 10426 3199 10395 3195 10394 3195 10393
      3194 10392 3167 10396 3168 10416
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 180DEG 16KT 3176 10407

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
725 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

TXZ058-074-230100-
Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos TX-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area TX-
725 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL REEVES...NORTHERN
JEFF DAVIS AND EAST CENTRAL CULBERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 724 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles west of Toyah, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central
Reeves...northern Jeff Davis and east central Culberson Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3117 10378 3102 10408 3140 10416 3148 10393
      3140 10395 3137 10397 3132 10390 3131 10385
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 147DEG 21KT 3128 10405

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
747 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

TXZ074-230115-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area TX-
747 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTY
UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 747 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Davis Mountains State Park, or near Fort Davis, moving northeast at
10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Davis, Davis Mountains State Park, Black Mountain, Indian Lodge
and Fort Davis National Historical Site.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3056 10376 3051 10404 3079 10405 3075 10393
      3075 10389 3069 10385 3063 10380
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 161DEG 11KT 3061 10398

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
806 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

TXZ058-230145-
Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos TX-
806 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL REEVES COUNTY UNTIL
845 PM CDT...

At 805 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles west of Toyah, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Reeves
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3124 10403 3136 10407 3153 10386 3136 10372
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 240DEG 10KT 3132 10400

67

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
833 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 PM     HAIL             11 S CARLSBAD           32.24N 104.24W
05/22/2018  M1.75 INCH       Eddy               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AKL