Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
332 PM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

Busy day starting to slowly wind down as the large convective
complex continues to sink south into central and western Georgia.
Secondary wave sinking south through the Mid-South region appears to
be on target to remain mainly west of north and central Georgia
tonight. Have kept high chance POPs west and south into the early
evening, slowly diminishing through the overnight hours from
northeast to southwest. With the current trends, we are allowing
what is left of the previously issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch to
ride without expanding southward, however, a few strong to severe
storms will be possible as the line of strongest convection drops
through the far southern reaches of the forecast area this
afternoon.

Weak upper ridging builds into the region Friday, however enough
weak mid-level energy trapped across south and central Georgia in
the vicinity of a weak surface boundary for scattered convection.
Upper ridge not dominant enough to rule out isolated showers and
thunderstorms across the north Friday afternoon/early evening.

20

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

Minor changes made to the long term.

26

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 440 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018/

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

The upper ridge will be centered east of the MS River at the start
of the period. The ridge gets shifted east somewhat late in the
weekend as an upper trough deepens into the Great Lakes...although
the ridge rebounds towards the end of the period. A weak low
pressure area persists in the vicinity of the northern Gulf and
meanders around that area through Wednesday. In general...our
forecast area will be dominated by mainly diurnal showers and
thunderstorms each day. A few thunderstorms may last all night and
have kept at least a slight chance in for each overnight period.
Have shown some higher pops for portions of central GA Sunday and
Monday due to the effects of the northern Gulf low. GFS and ECMWF
seem to show a strengthening of the low during that time frame. No
big changes to the temperature trend.

41

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

Wide mixture of IFR to VFR conditions across the forecast area at
this time. Main line of convection pressing into central Georgia and
should be out of the north TAF vicinities by 20Z and out of the
southern TAF sites by 22-24Z. Most areas recover to VFR conditions
through 00Z with scattered areas of MVFR or lower ceilings and
visibilities developing between 06Z and 14Z. Best chance for impacts
will be at the southern and eastern TAF sites, less so for the
Atlanta Metro TAF sites. Generally VFR conditions after 14Z tomorrow
outside of any isolated to scattered convection. West to northwest
winds 6-10kt, variable and much stronger in areas of convection,
through 00Z, diminishing to 3-6kt after and becoming more northwest
to north before transitioning to north to northeast by 15Z Friday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium all elements

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  93  72  92 /  20  20  20  30
Atlanta         73  92  74  90 /  30  20  20  30
Blairsville     64  88  65  88 /  10  30  20  30
Cartersville    70  92  71  92 /  20  20  20  30
Columbus        75  93  75  91 /  50  40  30  50
Gainesville     71  92  72  90 /  20  20  20  30
Macon           73  93  73  91 /  30  30  30  50
Rome            70  93  71  93 /  30  20  10  30
Peachtree City  71  93  72  91 /  30  20  20  40
Vidalia         74  92  74  90 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for the
following zones: Carroll...Haralson...Harris...Heard...Houston...
Macon...Meriwether...Peach...Polk...Talbot...Taylor...Troup...
Twiggs.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
304 PM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-291915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
304 PM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through this
evening, mainly across central GA. Strong to severe thunderstorms
are expected to continue over the next couple of hours. Any
severe thunderstorm that develops will have the potential to
produce damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes and
locally heavy rainfall. An isolated brief tornado cannot be ruled
out. The most likely time for strong to severe storms would be
this afternoon and evening, however a few storms could last
overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day for the rest of the
time period through the middle of next week, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours with few storms becoming strong to
severe each day with gusty winds, frequent lightning and isolated
flooding from heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
326 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE COOSA             34.29N  85.26W
06/28/2018                   FLOYD              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN ON WILLIAMSBURG DRIVE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800522

LREAVES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
327 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W ROME                34.26N  85.24W
06/28/2018                   FLOYD              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN ON KENWOOD DRIVE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800523

LREAVES

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