Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1154 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.UPDATE...

We have issued a severe thunderstorm watch in effect until 8pm
for portion of north and central Georgia.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1044 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018/

UPDATE...

Updated grids through the next 24 hours to adjust trends based on the
ongoing, current, and model evolution of the series of waves
impacting the area in the northwest flow pattern. Looks like the
initial wave will remain more active through the remainder of the
morning and into the afternoon across mainly north and eventually
western portions of the forecast area. Still seeing the second wave
progged to drop south with the main impacts remaining west of the
forecast area. Biggest severe weather threat with the current system
remains very heavy rainfall and strong to damaging winds.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 742 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 440 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

Current radar loop shows some isolated showers and thunderstorms
continuing to move SE out of TN and moving across the CWA. These
storms are weakening and moving slowly SE, but they dont seem to be
diminishing as fast as earlier thought. As these storms move further
south they will be moving into areas that were worked over by the
earlier convection so they should diminish with in the next few
hours.  As for the forecast...The upper level ridge is still
building but it has become more centered over the northwestern Gulf
and eastern TX. This has allowed a broad upper level trough to dig
into the southeastern and mid atlantic states, with very little
movement expected over the next few days. This pattern puts GA right
into the Northwesterly flow with impulses continuing to ride over
the ridge center and right into our area. These waves will help to
produce diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms Today and Friday.
Expecting scattered coverage with storms today and tomorrow with a
marginal chance of any storms becoming severe. The greatest threats
will be gusty winds, heavy rain, frequent lightning, and some hail.

Temperatures will continue to stay on the warm side with heat index
values across central GA expected around 100-103. For now not
planning to issue another heat advisory for today as it requires
heat index values of 105 or higher. Will keep a close eye on things
and update as needed.

01

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

The upper ridge will be centered east of the MS River at the start
of the period. The ridge gets shifted east somewhat late in the
weekend as an upper trough deepens into the Great Lakes...although
the ridge rebounds towards the end of the period. A weak low
pressure area persists in the vicinity of the northern Gulf and
meanders around that area through Wednesday. In general...our
forecast area will be dominated by mainly diurnal showers and
thunderstorms each day. A few thunderstorms may last all night and
have kept at least a slight chance in for each overnight period.
Have shown some higher pops for portions of central GA Sunday and
Monday due to the effects of the northern Gulf low. GFS and ECMWF
seem to show a strengthening of the low during that time frame. No
big changes to the temperature trend.

41

AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Mostly VFR ceilings but SHRA/TSRA is moving in rapidly and things
will be changing soon. This first round of precip will move
through over the next few hours but another round is expected to
push south out of TN later this afternoon bringing more SHRA/TSRA
to the TAF sites. Ceilings will be up and down today but should
stay in the MVFR to VFR range. VSBYs will do the same. Winds
will start out of the SW and turn slowly to the NW through
tonight. Winds will continue to turn to the NE through Friday
morning. Wind speeds will stay 10kt or less except some gust to
25kt in ad around any stronger storms today.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium to high on all elements

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  72  94  73 /  80  30  30  20
Atlanta         90  73  92  74 /  70  40  30  20
Blairsville     84  65  88  67 /  90  30  30  20
Cartersville    89  70  92  72 /  70  40  30  10
Columbus        93  74  93  75 /  60  60  40  30
Gainesville     88  71  92  73 /  90  30  30  20
Macon           93  73  94  74 /  70  50  40  30
Rome            90  70  92  72 /  70  40  30  10
Peachtree City  90  71  92  73 /  70  40  30  20
Vidalia         93  74  93  75 /  60  50  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for the
following zones: Baldwin...Bartow...Bibb...Butts...Carroll...
Chattooga...Cherokee...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...
Dade...DeKalb...Douglas...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Glascock...
Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hancock...Haralson...Harris...
Heard...Henry...Houston...Jasper...Jefferson...Jones...Lamar...
Macon...Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan...Newton...North Fulton...
Paulding...Peach...Pike...Polk...Putnam...Rockdale...South
Fulton...Spalding...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Troup...
Twiggs...Upson...Walker...Walton...Warren...Washington...
Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1158 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-291600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1158 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today into this
evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely. Therefore a
severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for a portion of north
and central GA. Any severe thunderstorm that develops will have
the potential to produce damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning
strikes and locally heavy rainfall. An isolated brief tornado
cannot be ruled out. The most likely time for strong to severe
storms would be this afternoon and evening, however a few storms
could last overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day for the rest of the
time period through the middle of next week, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours with few storms becoming strong to
severe each day with gusty winds, frequent lightning and isolated
flooding from heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1247 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

GAZ031-043-044-281715-
Douglas GA-Paulding GA-South Fulton GA-
1247 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS...SOUTHEASTERN PAULDING
AND SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM EDT...

At 1247 PM EDT...a line of scattered strong thunderstorms was along
a line extending from near Yorkville to near Union City...and moving
south at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Douglasville, Dallas, East Point, Union City, Villa Rica, Fairburn,
Hiram, Braswell, Brownsville, Chapel Hill, Winston, Lake Val-Do-Mar,
Campbellton and New Georgia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3398 8495 3365 8450 3354 8453 3352 8459
      3374 8490 3378 8491 3380 8497
TIME...MOT...LOC 1647Z 343DEG 17KT 3389 8493 3364 8455

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1249 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 AM     TSTM WND DMG     RANGER                  34.50N  84.71W
06/28/2018                   GORDON             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ALONG HWY-411 FROM RANGER TO
            FAIRMONT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800494

PAGANO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
103 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

GAZ053>058-068-070-071-281730-
Butts GA-Fayette GA-Lamar GA-Monroe GA-Clayton GA-Coweta GA-
Spalding GA-Pike GA-Henry GA-
103 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BUTTS...FAYETTE...
LAMAR...WESTERN MONROE...SOUTHWESTERN CLAYTON...NORTHEASTERN
COWETA...SPALDING...NORTHEASTERN PIKE AND SOUTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTIES
UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

At 103 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Cannongate to Brooks to Johnstonville...and moving
south at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to nickel sized hail and frequent
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Newnan, Griffin, Fayetteville, Barnesville, Jackson, Forsyth,
Zebulon, Peachtree City, Hampton, Tyrone, Lovejoy, Locust Grove,
Senoia, Milner, Brooks, Jenkinsburg, Williamson, Sharpsburg, Turin
and Orchard Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3341 8477 3354 8453 3356 8446 3346 8436
      3329 8393 3291 8398 3318 8449 3322 8451
      3322 8454
TIME...MOT...LOC 1703Z 018DEG 19KT 3345 8463 3332 8445 3311 8406

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
106 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

GAZ031-041>044-053-281730-
Douglas GA-Coweta GA-Haralson GA-Carroll GA-Paulding GA-
South Fulton GA-
106 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DOUGLAS...NORTHERN
COWETA...EASTERN HARALSON...EASTERN CARROLL...SOUTHWESTERN PAULDING
AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

At 106 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Eubank Lake to near Temple to Cannongate...and
moving southwest at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Newnan, Douglasville, Carrollton, Buchanan, Union City, Villa Rica,
Fairburn, Bremen, Palmetto, Temple, Whitesburg, Chattahoochee Hill
Country, Plant Yates, Bill Arp, Seaton Lake, Fairplay, Dunaway
Gardens, Abilene, Draketown and Winston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3388 8525 3392 8498 3380 8486 3355 8453
      3352 8459 3339 8480 3359 8508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1706Z 041DEG 22KT 3391 8513 3372 8500 3349 8467

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
107 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW SEQUOYAH LAKE     34.52N  84.42W
06/28/2018                   PICKENS            GA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            A LARGE TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN ON HIGHWAY 136 NEAR
            GRAND VIEW ROAD. THE TREE HAS BEEN CLEARED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800495

LREAVES

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
109 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

GAZ072>074-083>085-281745-
Wilkinson GA-Washington GA-Baldwin GA-Johnson GA-Jones GA-Twiggs GA-
109 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WILKINSON...SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON...SOUTHWESTERN BALDWIN...NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON...
SOUTHEASTERN JONES AND NORTHEASTERN TWIGGS COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM
EDT...

At 109 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Mountain Springs to Toomsboro to near Tennille...
and moving southeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Sandersville, Wrightsville, Irwinton, Gordon, Tennille, Ivey,
McIntyre, Harrison, Toomsboro, Oconee, James, Donovan, Mountain
Springs, Greenberry Crossroads, Pringle, Myricks Mill, New Home and
Nicklesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3270 8282 3272 8286 3271 8296 3268 8304
      3275 8341 3301 8349 3293 8311 3302 8279
      3277 8259
TIME...MOT...LOC 1709Z 330DEG 24KT 3286 8343 3282 8306 3289 8280

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH