Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
135 PM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1044 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018/

UPDATE...

Updated grids through the next 24 hours to adjust trends based on the
ongoing, current, and model evolution of the series of waves
impacting the area in the northwest flow pattern. Looks like the
initial wave will remain more active through the remainder of the
morning and into the afternoon across mainly north and eventually
western portions of the forecast area. Still seeing the second wave
progged to drop south with the main impacts remaining west of the
forecast area. Biggest severe weather threat with the current system
remains very heavy rainfall and strong to damaging winds.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 742 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 440 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

Current radar loop shows some isolated showers and thunderstorms
continuing to move SE out of TN and moving across the CWA. These
storms are weakening and moving slowly SE, but they dont seem to be
diminishing as fast as earlier thought. As these storms move further
south they will be moving into areas that were worked over by the
earlier convection so they should diminish with in the next few
hours.  As for the forecast...The upper level ridge is still
building but it has become more centered over the northwestern Gulf
and eastern TX. This has allowed a broad upper level trough to dig
into the southeastern and mid atlantic states, with very little
movement expected over the next few days. This pattern puts GA right
into the Northwesterly flow with impulses continuing to ride over
the ridge center and right into our area. These waves will help to
produce diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms Today and Friday.
Expecting scattered coverage with storms today and tomorrow with a
marginal chance of any storms becoming severe. The greatest threats
will be gusty winds, heavy rain, frequent lightning, and some hail.

Temperatures will continue to stay on the warm side with heat index
values across central GA expected around 100-103. For now not
planning to issue another heat advisory for today as it requires
heat index values of 105 or higher. Will keep a close eye on things
and update as needed.

01

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

The upper ridge will be centered east of the MS River at the start
of the period. The ridge gets shifted east somewhat late in the
weekend as an upper trough deepens into the Great Lakes...although
the ridge rebounds towards the end of the period. A weak low
pressure area persists in the vicinity of the northern Gulf and
meanders around that area through Wednesday. In general...our
forecast area will be dominated by mainly diurnal showers and
thunderstorms each day. A few thunderstorms may last all night and
have kept at least a slight chance in for each overnight period.
Have shown some higher pops for portions of central GA Sunday and
Monday due to the effects of the northern Gulf low. GFS and ECMWF
seem to show a strengthening of the low during that time frame. No
big changes to the temperature trend.

41

AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Mostly VFR ceilings but SHRA/TSRA is moving in rapidly and things
will be changing soon. This first round of precip will move
through over the next few hours but another round is expected to
push south out of TN later this afternoon bringing more SHRA/TSRA
to the TAF sites. Ceilings will be up and down today but should
stay in the MVFR to VFR range. VSBYs will do the same. Winds
will start out of the SW and turn slowly to the NW through
tonight. Winds will continue to turn to the NE through Friday
morning. Wind speeds will stay 10kt or less except some gust to
25kt in ad around any stronger storms today.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium to high on all elements

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  94  73  92 /  30  30  20  40
Atlanta         73  92  74  91 /  40  30  20  50
Blairsville     65  88  67  87 /  30  30  20  40
Cartersville    70  92  72  91 /  40  30  10  40
Columbus        74  93  75  91 /  60  40  30  60
Gainesville     71  92  73  90 /  30  30  20  40
Macon           73  94  74  91 /  50  40  30  50
Rome            70  92  72  92 /  40  30  10  40
Peachtree City  71  92  73  91 /  40  30  20  50
Vidalia         74  93  75  91 /  50  50  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for the
following zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Butts...Carroll...Chattooga...
Coweta...Crawford...Fayette...Floyd...Haralson...Harris...
Heard...Houston...Jones...Lamar...Macon...Meriwether...Monroe...
Peach...Pike...Polk...Spalding...Talbot...Taylor...Troup...
Twiggs...Upson...Washington...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1158 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-291600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1158 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today into this
evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely. Therefore a
severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for a portion of north
and central GA. Any severe thunderstorm that develops will have
the potential to produce damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning
strikes and locally heavy rainfall. An isolated brief tornado
cannot be ruled out. The most likely time for strong to severe
storms would be this afternoon and evening, however a few storms
could last overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day for the rest of the
time period through the middle of next week, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours with few storms becoming strong to
severe each day with gusty winds, frequent lightning and isolated
flooding from heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
228 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N MENLO               34.50N  85.48W
06/28/2018                   CHATTOOGA          GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN ON SIXTH AVE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800512

LREAVES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
231 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1143 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE UNION HILL        34.20N  84.37W
06/28/2018                   CHEROKEE           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN ON OLD JONES ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800513

LREAVES

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
231 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

GAZ078>080-089>093-281900-
Macon GA-Schley GA-Chattahoochee GA-Harris GA-Taylor GA-Marion GA-
Talbot GA-Muscogee GA-
231 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MACON...NORTHERN SCHLEY...
NORTHEASTERN CHATTAHOOCHEE...SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS...TAYLOR...NORTHERN
MARION...SOUTHWESTERN TALBOT AND NORTHEASTERN MUSCOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL
300 PM EDT...

At 231 PM EDT...the leading edge of a line of strong thunderstorms
was along a line extending from Waverly Hall to near Buena Vista to
near Butler...and moving south at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Buena Vista, Butler, Oglethorpe, Talbotton, Montezuma, Marshallville,
Reynolds, Waverly Hall, Ideal, Junction City, Geneva, Upatoi,
Brantley, Shiloh, Ellerslie, Murrays Crossroads, Whitewater State
Park, Juniper, Rupert and Baughville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3229 8446 3255 8494 3280 8470 3262 8442
      3262 8407 3260 8407 3256 8405 3255 8402
      3253 8400 3251 8402 3251 8397 3250 8395
      3226 8396
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 358DEG 28KT 3270 8475 3253 8446 3253 8419

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
235 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1211 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW UNION HILL         34.21N  84.40W
06/28/2018                   CHEROKEE           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN AT UNION HILL ROAD AND EAST
            CHEROKEE DRIVE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800514

LREAVES

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

GAZ090-281915-
Chattahoochee GA-
245 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTY
UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 245 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near North Fort Benning, or
near Cusseta...moving south at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cusseta and Eelbeck/West Fort Benning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3229 8479 3240 8485 3242 8481 3241 8479
      3242 8478 3242 8477 3243 8477 3245 8474
      3236 8465 3236 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 339DEG 16KT 3239 8479

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH