Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
440 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

Current radar loop shows some isolated showers and thunderstorms
continuing to move SE out of TN and moving across the CWA. These
storms are weakening and moving slowly SE, but they dont seem to be
diminishing as fast as earlier thought. As these storms move further
south they will be moving into areas that were worked over by the
earlier convection so they should diminish with in the next few
hours.  As for the forecast...The upper level ridge is still
building but it has become more centered over the northwestern Gulf
and eastern TX. This has allowed a broad upper level trough to dig
into the southeastern and mid atlantic states, with very little
movement expected over the next few days. This pattern puts GA right
into the Northwesterly flow with impulses continuing to ride over
the ridge center and right into our area. These waves will help to
produce diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms Today and Friday.
Expecting scattered coverage with storms today and tomorrow with a
marginal chance of any storms becoming severe. The greatest threats
will be gusty winds, heavy rain, frequent lightning, and some hail.

Temperatures will continue to stay on the warm side with heat index
values across central GA expected around 100-103. For now not
planning to issue another heat advisory for today as it requires
heat index values of 105 or higher. Will keep a close eye on things
and update as needed.

01

.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

The upper ridge will be centered east of the MS River at the start
of the period. The ridge gets shifted east somewhat late in the
weekend as an upper trough deepens into the Great Lakes...although
the ridge rebounds towards the end of the period. A weak low
pressure area persists in the vicinity of the northern Gulf and
meanders around that area through Wednesday. In general...our
forecast area will be dominated by mainly diurnal showers and
thunderstorms each day. A few thunderstorms may last all night and
have kept at least a slight chance in for each overnight period.
Have shown some higher pops for portions of central GA Sunday and
Monday due to the effects of the northern Gulf low. GFS and ECMWF
seem to show a strengthening of the low during that time frame. No
big changes to the temperature trend.

41

&&

AVIATION...
06Z Update...
Mostly VFR ceilings right now but expecting them to fall into the
IFR to LIFR range over the next few hours. Ceilings will lift
back into the VFR range by 13z-14z. Expecting another round of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms like we have seen over the
past few days. Will see ceilings and VSBYs fall into the MVFR
range in and around any SHRA/TSRA. Winds will stay out of the W to
NW with speeds 10kt or less. Will se some gust winds to 20kt in
and around the afternoon convection.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium to high on all elements

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          92  72  94  73 /  40  30  30  20
Atlanta         91  73  92  74 /  50  30  30  10
Blairsville     85  65  88  67 /  40  30  30  20
Cartersville    90  70  92  72 /  50  30  30  10
Columbus        94  74  93  75 /  60  40  40  30
Gainesville     89  71  92  73 /  40  30  20  20
Macon           94  73  94  74 /  50  50  40  30
Rome            91  70  92  72 /  50  30  30  10
Peachtree City  91  71  92  73 /  50  40  30  20
Vidalia         94  74  93  75 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
452 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-290900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
452 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today
into this evening. Strong thunderstorms are likely, but a few
severe thunderstorms are not out of the question. Any severe
thunderstorm that develops will have the potential to produce
damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes and locally heavy
rainfall. An isolated brief tornado cannot be ruled out. The most
likely time for strong to severe storms would be this afternoon
and evening, however a few storms could last overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day for the rest of the
time period through the middle of next week, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours with few storms becoming strong to
severe each day with gusty winds, frequent lightning and isolated
flooding from heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
554 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

GAZ006>009-013>016-021-281030-
Gilmer GA-Dawson GA-Union GA-Towns GA-Cherokee GA-Pickens GA-
White GA-Lumpkin GA-Fannin GA-
554 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILMER...DAWSON...UNION...
TOWNS...NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE...PICKENS...WHITE...LUMPKIN AND FANNIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM EDT...

At 552 AM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Gumlog to Fairmount...and moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph...pea sized hail and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Dahlonega, Jasper, Cleveland, Dawsonville, Ellijay, Blue Ridge,
Hiawassee, Blairsville, Ball Ground, Nelson, Young Harris, East
Ellijay, Helen, Morganton, Talking Rock, Suches, Unicoi State Park,
Dougherty, Amicalola Falls State Park and Robertstown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3495 8355 3494 8360 3492 8359 3488 8366
      3482 8365 3480 8368 3477 8363 3474 8362
      3446 8391 3447 8393 3445 8392 3443 8397
      3440 8397 3433 8404 3433 8426 3427 8426
      3441 8465 3469 8465 3499 8423 3499 8355
TIME...MOT...LOC 0952Z 270DEG 33KT 3496 8395 3446 8469

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH