Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
135 PM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1044 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018/

UPDATE...

Updated grids through the next 24 hours to adjust trends based on the
ongoing, current, and model evolution of the series of waves
impacting the area in the northwest flow pattern. Looks like the
initial wave will remain more active through the remainder of the
morning and into the afternoon across mainly north and eventually
western portions of the forecast area. Still seeing the second wave
progged to drop south with the main impacts remaining west of the
forecast area. Biggest severe weather threat with the current system
remains very heavy rainfall and strong to damaging winds.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 742 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 440 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

Current radar loop shows some isolated showers and thunderstorms
continuing to move SE out of TN and moving across the CWA. These
storms are weakening and moving slowly SE, but they dont seem to be
diminishing as fast as earlier thought. As these storms move further
south they will be moving into areas that were worked over by the
earlier convection so they should diminish with in the next few
hours.  As for the forecast...The upper level ridge is still
building but it has become more centered over the northwestern Gulf
and eastern TX. This has allowed a broad upper level trough to dig
into the southeastern and mid atlantic states, with very little
movement expected over the next few days. This pattern puts GA right
into the Northwesterly flow with impulses continuing to ride over
the ridge center and right into our area. These waves will help to
produce diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms Today and Friday.
Expecting scattered coverage with storms today and tomorrow with a
marginal chance of any storms becoming severe. The greatest threats
will be gusty winds, heavy rain, frequent lightning, and some hail.

Temperatures will continue to stay on the warm side with heat index
values across central GA expected around 100-103. For now not
planning to issue another heat advisory for today as it requires
heat index values of 105 or higher. Will keep a close eye on things
and update as needed.

01

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

The upper ridge will be centered east of the MS River at the start
of the period. The ridge gets shifted east somewhat late in the
weekend as an upper trough deepens into the Great Lakes...although
the ridge rebounds towards the end of the period. A weak low
pressure area persists in the vicinity of the northern Gulf and
meanders around that area through Wednesday. In general...our
forecast area will be dominated by mainly diurnal showers and
thunderstorms each day. A few thunderstorms may last all night and
have kept at least a slight chance in for each overnight period.
Have shown some higher pops for portions of central GA Sunday and
Monday due to the effects of the northern Gulf low. GFS and ECMWF
seem to show a strengthening of the low during that time frame. No
big changes to the temperature trend.

41

AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Mostly VFR ceilings but SHRA/TSRA is moving in rapidly and things
will be changing soon. This first round of precip will move
through over the next few hours but another round is expected to
push south out of TN later this afternoon bringing more SHRA/TSRA
to the TAF sites. Ceilings will be up and down today but should
stay in the MVFR to VFR range. VSBYs will do the same. Winds
will start out of the SW and turn slowly to the NW through
tonight. Winds will continue to turn to the NE through Friday
morning. Wind speeds will stay 10kt or less except some gust to
25kt in ad around any stronger storms today.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium to high on all elements

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  94  73  92 /  30  30  20  40
Atlanta         73  92  74  91 /  40  30  20  50
Blairsville     65  88  67  87 /  30  30  20  40
Cartersville    70  92  72  91 /  40  30  10  40
Columbus        74  93  75  91 /  60  40  30  60
Gainesville     71  92  73  90 /  30  30  20  40
Macon           73  94  74  91 /  50  40  30  50
Rome            70  92  72  92 /  40  30  10  40
Peachtree City  71  92  73  91 /  40  30  20  50
Vidalia         74  93  75  91 /  50  50  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for the
following zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Butts...Carroll...Chattooga...
Coweta...Crawford...Fayette...Floyd...Haralson...Harris...
Heard...Houston...Jones...Lamar...Macon...Meriwether...Monroe...
Peach...Pike...Polk...Spalding...Talbot...Taylor...Troup...
Twiggs...Upson...Washington...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1158 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-291600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1158 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today into this
evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely. Therefore a
severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for a portion of north
and central GA. Any severe thunderstorm that develops will have
the potential to produce damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning
strikes and locally heavy rainfall. An isolated brief tornado
cannot be ruled out. The most likely time for strong to severe
storms would be this afternoon and evening, however a few storms
could last overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day for the rest of the
time period through the middle of next week, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours with few storms becoming strong to
severe each day with gusty winds, frequent lightning and isolated
flooding from heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
159 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE BILL ARP           33.70N  84.77W
06/28/2018                   DOUGLAS            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN ON YEAGER ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800506

LREAVES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
200 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE BILL ARP          33.63N  84.78W
06/28/2018                   DOUGLAS            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN ON HIGHWAY 166 NEAR BIG A
            ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800507

LREAVES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
202 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE COOSA             34.29N  85.26W
06/28/2018                   FLOYD              GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN ON A HOUSE ON WILLIAMSBURG
            DRIVE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800508

LREAVES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
203 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW STARRS MILL       33.35N  84.56W
06/28/2018                   FAYETTE            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE REPORTED DOWN ON POWER LINES NEAR THE INTERSECTION
            OF COOPER CIRCLE AND HWY 74.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800509

KING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
210 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE STARRS MILL       33.37N  84.50W
06/28/2018                   FAYETTE            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN AT THE 100 BLOCK OF LAURA
            LANE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800510

KING

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
213 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

GAZ081-083-084-093>097-105-107-109-281845-
Macon GA-Peach GA-Wilkinson GA-Dooly GA-Houston GA-Crawford GA-
Laurens GA-Bleckley GA-Dodge GA-Twiggs GA-Pulaski GA-
213 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MACON...PEACH...
SOUTHEASTERN WILKINSON...NORTHERN DOOLY...HOUSTON...CRAWFORD...
LAURENS...BLECKLEY...DODGE...SOUTHERN TWIGGS AND PULASKI COUNTIES
UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 212 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Fort Valley to near Royal to Rockledge...and moving
southeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Dublin, Perry, Fort Valley, Cochran, Eastman, Hawkinsville, Warner
Robins, Centerville, Byron, Unadilla, East Dublin, Chester,
Marshallville, Dexter, Dudley, Cadwell, Pinehurst, Chauncey, Rentz
and Danville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3214 8366 3224 8395 3272 8395 3266 8360
      3268 8361 3265 8337 3270 8283 3269 8279
      3266 8279 3261 8267 3246 8266 3245 8269
      3233 8275 3231 8272 3227 8276 3213 8293
      3215 8293 3209 8302
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 326DEG 40KT 3256 8390 3247 8341 3246 8269

WIND...40MPH