Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Bismarck, ND

684 
WWUS53 KBIS 290409
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1109 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

NDC007-025-053-055-057-061-290445-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0138.000000T0000Z-180629T0445Z/
Dunn ND-McLean ND-Billings ND-McKenzie ND-Mountrail ND-Mercer ND-
1109 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM
CDT/1045 PM MDT/ FOR DUNN...NORTHWESTERN MCLEAN...NORTHEASTERN
BILLINGS...EAST CENTRAL MCKENZIE...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTRAIL AND MERCER
COUNTIES...

At 1109 PM CDT/1009 PM MDT/, severe thunderstorms were located along
a line extending from 9 miles northwest of Roseglen to Halliday to 7
miles north of Dickinson, moving east at 45 mph.

These are very dangerous storms.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

These severe storms will be near...
  Dodge around 1015 PM MDT.
  Roseglen around 1020 PM MDT.
  Golden Valley around 1125 PM CDT.
  Zap around 1135 PM CDT.
  Beulah, Garrison and Hazen around 1145 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include Skunk
Creek Bay Recreation Area, White Shield, Twin Buttes, Pouch Point
Recreation Area, Hirschville, Deep Water Creek Recreation Area,
Dakota Waters Recreation Area, Oakdale, Raub and Emmet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

&&

LAT...LON 4736 10309 4784 10308 4785 10135 4738 10141
      4724 10177 4698 10177 4698 10214 4701 10215
      4701 10252 4699 10253 4699 10323
TIME...MOT...LOC 0409Z 277DEG 38KT 4781 10202 4736 10231 4698 10280 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...80MPH
 
$$

JONES

583 
WWUS53 KBIS 290440
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1140 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

NDC007-025-053-055-057-061-290449-
/O.EXP.KBIS.SV.W.0138.000000T0000Z-180629T0445Z/
Dunn ND-McLean ND-Billings ND-McKenzie ND-Mountrail ND-Mercer ND-
1140 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DUNN...NORTHWESTERN MCLEAN...
NORTHEASTERN BILLINGS...EAST CENTRAL MCKENZIE...SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTRAIL AND MERCER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1145 PM CDT/1045 PM
MDT/...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
and gusty winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT/700 AM
MDT/ for south central, southwestern, north central and northwestern
North Dakota.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
eastern Dunn...McLean...and Mercer Counties

LAT...LON 4736 10309 4784 10308 4785 10135 4738 10141
      4724 10177 4698 10177 4698 10214 4701 10215
      4701 10252 4699 10253 4699 10323
TIME...MOT...LOC 0439Z 269DEG 42KT 4781 10152 4736 10181 4699 10230 

$$

JONES

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1010 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Based on recent radar trends and evening CAM simulations,
confidence remains high that a widespread wind threat will cross
western and central ND over roughly the next six hours. As the
cold-pool-driven forward propagation takes hold and the the speed
at which the line moves eastward averages 60+ mph, the threat may
rapidly spread eastward faster than even recent HRRR simulations
would suggest. Accordingly, collaboration is taking place with SPC
and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued before 04
UTC to replace the current Tornado Watch and which would likely
extend eastward across most of the state.

UPDATE Issued at 840 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Quick update to add Wells county to the Flash Flood Watch per
radar trends through 0145 UTC, with additional rounds of
convection expected through the night.

&&

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 805 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

A significant severe weather outbreak is unfolding across western
and central ND. Through 03 UTC, the greatest threat to include
potentially very large hail to around baseball size and possibly
tornadoes will accompany the supercells evolving from Dunn County
eastward across Mercer, McLean, Sheridan and Wells Counties. A
large convective cluster with potentially widespread damaging
winds will then likely enter western ND beginning between 02 and
03 UTC and will rapidly race eastward overnight.

The 00 UTC Bismarck sounding showed weak residual capping centered
near 760 mb, though at the time of the balloon launch low-level
moisture had mixed out slightly on a local basis, and modifying it
for dewpoints above 70 F suggests MLCIN is essentially minimized.
Surface analyses show the warm frontal boundary -- while loosely
defined -- extending from southern McKenzie County eastward toward
Beulah and Harvey. Ascent associated with a leading impulse aloft
has likely aided convective initiation and the environment along
the warm frontal zone is characterized by strong deep-layer shear
with effective bulk wind differences on the order of 60 kt and
MLCAPE ranging from 4500 J/kg on the Dunn/Mercer County segment
of the frontal zone to 3000 J/kg in the Sheridan/Wells County part
of the front, per the 00 UTC RAP-based objective analysis run at
SPC. This is supporting an environment which is highly favorable
for significant hail production. Objective analyses also support
0-1-km SRH in the 100-200 m2/s2 range in support of fixed-layer
significant tornado parameter values around 4 along and about 50
miles either side of the warm frontal zone. The hodograph from the
00 UTC Bismarck RAOB displayed a distinct concavity in the 1 to 3
km layer, which model simulations have consistently advertised and
which may be limiting low-level mesocyclone intensity thus far. We
expect low-level hodographs to enlarge with concurrent increases
in SRH and reductions in the current concavity by about 02 UTC,
which may support an increase in tornado potential in the next 60
to 90 minutes if discrete storm modes can be maintained.

Otherwise, upscale growth is ongoing with convection in eastern MT
in association with more well-defined height falls aloft. Clusters
of storms are relatively closely spaced and in time are organizing
in a more linear fashion, which is expected to generate expanding
cold pools the next few hours, which should eventually support a
forward-propagating MCS. Strong westerly flow aloft atop stout
low-level east-southeast flow will support downshear-propagating
meso-beta element (Corfidi) vectors on the order of 60-70 kt and
thus once the cold-pool-driven propagation takes hold the MCS is
expected to rapidly move across western ND between roughly 02 and
05 UTC, and central ND between 05 and 09 UTC. Given the degree of
bouyancy and strong wind fields, significant-severe-caliber winds
of 80 mph are likely with bowing segments of the line tonight, and
widespread damaging winds remain a considerable concern.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Very active late afternoon and night with significant severe
weather expected. Tornado watch was issued during the hour for all
but the northern tier counties along the Canadian border. The
tornado watch is in effect until 11 pm CDT, but it is important to
note that additional watches will likely be needed for this
event, which will last through much of the night. In addition, a
flash flood watch is in effect for west central through north
central counties. Please see previous discussion that covered the
factors supporting the flash flood threat.

Otherwise, SPC meso page continues to show extreme CAPE in excess
of 5000 J/KG across the southwest, decreasing northward.
Convective development has been hindered much of this afternoon
with lack of large scale forcing, which should change as upper
level support increases with approaching upper level trough. CAM
solutions continue to struggle with convection, but all trend
toward a better organized convective system moving in from Montana
this evening.

Friday SPC day 2 outlook continues to show general thunderstorms
for ND, however latest SREF guidance appears to be pointing toward
the possibility of some stronger storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Upper level trough continues moving across the Northern Plains
supporting continued thunderstorm chances through the weekend
under cyclonic flow. High temps cool down into the 70s before
rebounding again into the 80s early next week. Near zonal flow
with occasional impulses working through the flow will support a
continue active pattern with chances of showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 840 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

As of 0145 UTC, severe thunderstorms have thus far avoided the
TAF sites across western and central North Dakota. However, a
significant line of severe thunderstorms across eastern Montana
will track across western and central North Dakota tonight.
Damaging winds in excess of 65kts, large hail, and LIFR conditions
are expected. TAFs will be updated based on radar trends.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Friday for
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021>023-031-032.

&&

UPDATE...CJS
MESOSCALE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...PA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
339 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-022-031-032-292045-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-McLean-Sheridan-Golden Valley-
Billings-
339 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018 /239 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A significant and widespread severe weather event is expected
across western and central North Dakota this afternoon through
tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along a warm front
between I-94 and US Highway 2 this afternoon. More numerous
thunderstorms are expected Thursday evening and into the night
across a larger portion of western and central North Dakota. Very
large hail to around baseball size, damaging winds to near 80 mph,
a few tornadoes, and localized flash flooding are the primary
threats. A significant, widespread damaging wind threat is
possible late this evening and tonight.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from 7 PM CDT this evening to 7
AM CDT Friday morning. 2 to 4 inches of rain with locally higher
amounts is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The chance for thunderstorms continues Friday and Saturday across
much of western and central North Dakota. A few storms could be
strong Friday across the far south central and James River
Valley, but severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and tonight.

NDZ020-023-025-033>037-040>048-050-051-292045-
Oliver-Wells-Foster-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Slope-
Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-
Dickey-
339 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018 /239 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A significant and widespread severe weather event is expected
across western and central North Dakota this afternoon through
tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along a warm front
between I-94 and US Highway 2 this afternoon. More numerous
thunderstorms are expected Thursday evening and into the night
across a larger portion of western and central North Dakota. Very
large hail to around baseball size, damaging winds to near 80 mph,
a few tornadoes, and localized flash flooding are the primary
threats. A significant, widespread damaging wind threat is
possible late this evening and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The chance for thunderstorms continues Friday and Saturday across
much of western and central North Dakota. A few storms could be
strong Friday across the far south central and James River
Valley, but severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and tonight.

jns

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1000 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

NDZ011-021-290345-
Ward ND-McLean ND-
1000 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL WARD AND
NORTHWESTERN MCLEAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

At 1000 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Roseglen, or
17 miles west of Garrison, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Ryder, Rice Lake, Douglas, Roseglen, Raub and White Shield.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south
central, north central and northwestern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4794 10115 4754 10190 4775 10206 4785 10190
      4785 10188 4787 10187 4814 10142
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 226DEG 28KT 4774 10177

SIMOSKO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1015 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 N RAY                 48.40N 103.17W
06/28/2018  M78 MPH          WILLIAMS           ND   MESONET

&&

MH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1017 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1006 PM     HAIL             5.1S TWIN BUTTES        47.44N 102.23W
06/28/2018  E1.00 INCH       DUNN               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL LASTED ABOUT 5 MINUTES UNTIL 1011 PM.

&&

JP MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1024 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E WATFORD CITY        47.80N 103.26W
06/28/2018  M60 MPH          MCKENZIE           ND   AWOS

            RECORDED AT THE WATFORD CITY AIRPORT.

&&

MH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1040 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5.1S TWIN BUTTES        47.44N 102.23W
06/28/2018                   DUNN               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CREEKS RUNNING VERY HARD, SOME NOW COMING
            OUT OF THEIR BANKS. SO FAR NO STRUCTURES
            KNOWN TO BE FLOODED. MEASURED 2.92 INCHES OF
            RAIN FROM THIS EVENINGS STORMS. STILL
            RAINING HARD.

&&

JP MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1041 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND GST     TIOGA                   48.40N 102.94W
06/28/2018  E75 MPH          WILLIAMS           ND   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED WINDS OF 70 TO 75 MPH WERE
            ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

KING