Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Bismarck, ND

335 
WWUS53 KBIS 290656
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
156 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

NDC009-049-069-079-290715-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-180629T0715Z/
Bottineau ND-Pierce ND-McHenry ND-Rolette ND-
156 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM CDT
FOR EASTERN BOTTINEAU...PIERCE...SOUTHEASTERN MCHENRY AND SOUTHERN
ROLETTE COUNTIES...

At 156 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Rolette to 7 miles east of Rugby to 8 miles north of
Harvey, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Rolette around 200 AM CDT.
  Wolford around 215 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Nanson, Silva, Selz, Agate, Orrin, Thorne, Mylo and Overly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4872 9952 4872 9949 4837 9949 4837 9985
      4802 9985 4802 9981 4785 9981 4786 10026
      4875 10018 4877 9953
TIME...MOT...LOC 0656Z 251DEG 24KT 4868 9982 4837 9983 4788 9987 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JONES

544 
WWUS53 KBIS 290714 RRA
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
214 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

NDC009-049-069-079-290724-
/O.EXP.KBIS.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-180629T0715Z/
Bottineau ND-Pierce ND-McHenry ND-Rolette ND-
214 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN BOTTINEAU...PIERCE...
SOUTHEASTERN MCHENRY AND SOUTHERN ROLETTE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 215
AM CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
north central North Dakota.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
southeastern Rolette and northeastern Pierce Counties. 

LAT...LON 4872 9952 4872 9949 4837 9949 4837 9985
      4802 9985 4802 9981 4785 9981 4786 10026
      4875 10018 4877 9953
TIME...MOT...LOC 0714Z 262DEG 27KT 4870 9963 4839 9964 4790 9969 

$$

JONES

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1250 AM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

Line of severe thunderstorms continues moving east across central
and southwestern North Dakota. Sever thunderstorm watch remains in
effect until 8 am CDT, however do expect to take counties out of the
watch from west to east throughout the nighttime hours as the line
of storms moves east. Otherwise no big changes in current forecast
for the early morning hours.

UPDATE Issued at 1010 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Based on recent radar trends and evening CAM simulations,
confidence remains high that a widespread wind threat will cross
western and central ND over roughly the next six hours. As the
cold-pool-driven forward propagation takes hold and the the speed
at which the line moves eastward averages 60+ mph, the threat may
rapidly spread eastward faster than even recent HRRR simulations
would suggest. Accordingly, collaboration is taking place with SPC
and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued before 04
UTC to replace the current Tornado Watch and which would likely
extend eastward across most of the state.

UPDATE Issued at 840 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Quick update to add Wells county to the Flash Flood Watch per
radar trends through 0145 UTC, with additional rounds of
convection expected through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Very active late afternoon and night with significant severe
weather expected. Tornado watch was issued during the hour for all
but the northern tier counties along the Canadian border. The
tornado watch is in effect until 11 pm CDT, but it is important to
note that additional watches will likely be needed for this
event, which will last through much of the night. In addition, a
flash flood watch is in effect for west central through north
central counties. Please see previous discussion that covered the
factors supporting the flash flood threat.

Otherwise, SPC meso page continues to show extreme CAPE in excess
of 5000 J/KG across the southwest, decreasing northward.
Convective development has been hindered much of this afternoon
with lack of large scale forcing, which should change as upper
level support increases with approaching upper level trough. CAM
solutions continue to struggle with convection, but all trend
toward a better organized convective system moving in from Montana
this evening.

Friday SPC day 2 outlook continues to show general thunderstorms
for ND, however latest SREF guidance appears to be pointing toward
the possibility of some stronger storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Upper level trough continues moving across the Northern Plains
supporting continued thunderstorm chances through the weekend
under cyclonic flow. High temps cool down into the 70s before
rebounding again into the 80s early next week. Near zonal flow
with occasional impulses working through the flow will support a
continue active pattern with chances of showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

As of 0530z, a line of severe thunderstorms extended from near
Bottineau to east of KMOT to near KBIS to east of KDIK to KHEI.
Variable winds with gusts around 50kts ahead, along, and behind this
line of severe storms as they move east across the state early this
Friday morning. Some locales may see winds in excess of 65kts, large
hail, and LIFR conditions associated with the thunderstorms.
Otherwise southeast winds mainly out ahead of the line of storms,
and northwesterly winds behind the line.

MVFR ceilings possible from time to time after line of storms move
through.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning for
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021>023-031-032.

&&

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1258 AM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

NDZ001-009-017-031-300600-
Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Golden Valley-
1258 AM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018 /1158 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 7 AM CDT Friday morning. 2
to 4 inches of rain with locally higher amounts had been
expected. Most of the line of strong to severe storms has exited
far western North Dakota, but any more rain that falls may
exacerbate areas already flooded.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The chance for thunderstorms continues Friday and Saturday across
much of western and central North Dakota. A few storms could be
strong Friday across the far south central and James River
Valley, but severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and tonight.

NDZ002>005-010>013-018>023-025-032>037-040>048-050-051-300600-
Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-
Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Billings-Stark-
Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-
Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
1258 AM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018 /1158 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A significant and widespread line of severe thunderstorms was
moving east across central and southwestern North Dakota early
this Friday morning. Damaging winds to near 80 mph, and very heavy
rain are the main threats. Large hail to around golfball size is
also still possible with this line of severe storms tonight.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 7 AM CDT Friday morning. 2
to 4 inches of rain with locally higher amounts is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The chance for thunderstorms continues Friday and Saturday across
much of western and central North Dakota. A few storms could be
strong Friday across the far south central and James River
Valley, but severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and tonight.

JV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1215 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     HAIL             5 NW SUNSET BUTTE       46.20N 103.88W
06/28/2018  E1.00 INCH       BOWMAN             ND   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

KING/HAMILTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1222 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NE KENMARE            48.70N 102.05W
06/29/2018  E2.00 INCH       WARD               ND   PUBLIC

            REPORT RELAYED THROUGH BROADCAST
            METEOROLOGIST. LOCATION ESTIMATED.

&&

JP MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     TSTM WND GST     HEBRON                  46.90N 102.05W
06/29/2018  E60 MPH          MORTON             ND   PUBLIC

            BRANCHES DOWN IN HEBRON. REPORT RELAYED BY
            BROADCAST METEOROLOGIST. WIND SPEED
            ESTIMATED.

&&

JP MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1249 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 NW NEW SALEM          46.86N 101.43W
06/29/2018  M58 MPH          MORTON             ND   MESONET

            NDOT WIND EQUIPMENT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
102 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     TSTM WND GST     WASHBURN                47.29N 101.03W
06/29/2018  E60 MPH          MCLEAN             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JP MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
108 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 N TURTLE LAKE         47.58N 100.89W
06/29/2018  M65 MPH          MCLEAN             ND   MESONET

&&

MH