Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1241 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Showers and thunderstorms will be ending before sunrise as a cxld
front moves east across the area. A period of MVFR ceilings will
be likely behind the front Saturday morning, with conditions
improving to VFR Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 923 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Clusters of mainly eleVATED storms continue to move northeast in
the area along and just southeast of I-44. A few of the more
organized bow segments have produced damaging wind gusts, along
with impressive rainfall amounts of nearly 3 inches per hour in
some places. Storms should continue to gradually translate east
into an environment that remains conducive to severe weather,
with sfc dew points in the lower 70s southeast of a boundary
extending from Franklin Co. to near KMLC. Low level wind shear
also remains supportive of at least a low-end tornado threat for
several more hours. Flash flooding remains a significant concern
along and south of I44 due to the excessive rainfall rates.

Changes to the forecast overall have been minor, asides from
adjusting POP forecast in the very near term and increasing the
QFP along and ahead of the slowly advancing line of storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 607 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing convection along the I-44 corridor is expected to increase
in coverage and spread eastward through the evening and early
morning hours. Aviation impacts should be expected with additional
lower ceilings following the frontal passage across all terminals
through the morning hours. VFR conditions are likely by Sat
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 324 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Latest surface analysis shows a stalled front across western
Oklahoma with various convective boundaries across the area.
Strong to severe storms are ongoing across northwest Arkansas.
More storms are approaching the area from southern and central
Oklahoma and this marks the next wave. Tornado watch will be
issued shortly.

Latest model guidance and radar trends would suggest the heaviest
rain will be across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
However with front and upper trough still west of the area, and
ongoing convection, will maintain flash flood watch and add
Pushmataha/Choctaw counties to the watch. The main severe threat
will be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes where storms can
take advantage of existing boundaries/increased SRH. Flash
flooding will also be a threat with another 1-3 inches of rain
possible, with the heaviest rains likely along and south of
Interstate 40.

Precipitation will end across eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas Saturday morning, with clearing from west to east by
Saturday afternoon. Cold front may make it to our western zones
by Saturday morning, and have lowered min temps a bit for this
possibility. Weather will be much improved by Sunday with light
winds and highs in the 70s. Overnight lows will be chilly by
Sunday morning, ranging from the mid to upper 40s across
northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas to mid 50s across southeast
Oklahoma.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1109 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1109 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD POTENTIAL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Line of strong to severe thunderstorms will slowly push to the
east across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas overnight in
association with an upper level low moving out of the rockies
and into the plains. The thunderstorms will have the potential
to produce damaging winds and possibly a tornado through much of
the overnight hours across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue across northeast Oklahoma
through much of the night. Heavy rain and flash flooding will continue
to be a major concern overnight with river flooding and areal flooding
continuing through the weekend.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms will end from west to east during the
day Saturday. The next storm system will affect the area Monday
into Tuesday bringing a chance of thunderstorms, but only a
limited risk of severe weather.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1224 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2017

ARZ011-020-200600-
Madison AR-Franklin AR-
1224 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MADISON AND
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

At 1224 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles south of
Cass, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
St. Paul...                       Cass...
Saint Paul...                     Pettigrew...
Witter...                         Boston...
Jethro...                         Dutton...
Barnes...                         Red Star...
Redding...                        Watalula...
Brashears...                      Turners Bend...
Taft...                           Paradise...

A tornado watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for northwestern
and west central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3588 9352 3576 9352 3577 9370 3556 9370
      3552 9376 3562 9394 3600 9368 3589 9351
TIME...MOT...LOC 0524Z 214DEG 37KT 3563 9380

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
146 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SAPULPA                 36.00N 96.11W
05/20/2017                   CREEK              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE-HALF INCH OF WATER IN HOME.

&&

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
147 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      KREBS                   34.93N 95.72W
05/20/2017                   PITTSBURG          OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER TO DOORWAYS OF HOMES.

&&

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
147 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2017

OKZ049-053-073-200745-
Pittsburg OK-Choctaw OK-Pushmataha OK-
147 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PUSHMATAHA...WESTERN CHOCTAW AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PITTSBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

At 146 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 9 miles northwest of Stanley to 4 miles southwest of
Albany. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Antlers...                        Clayton...
Boswell...                        Rattan...
Soper...                          Albion...
Clayton Lake State Park...        Kent...
Snow...                           Tuskahoma...
Stanley...                        Moyers...
Nashoba...                        Kiamichi...
Kosoma...                         Kellond...
Dunbar...                         Eubanks...
Sardis...                         Speer...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for southeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3388 9584 3391 9588 3393 9592 3395 9594
      3412 9594 3414 9596 3415 9598 3416 9578
      3442 9578 3451 9571 3451 9567 3456 9567
      3468 9558 3467 9502 3394 9559 3394 9560
      3391 9564 3388 9570 3390 9575 3387 9578
TIME...MOT...LOC 0646Z 232DEG 66KT 3465 9557 3382 9621

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
220 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2017

OKZ049-075-200815-
Latimer OK-Pushmataha OK-
220 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL PUSHMATAHA AND
LATIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

At 219 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 2 miles southwest of Wilburton to 7 miles northwest of
Clayton. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Wilburton...                      Red Oak...
Albion...                         Damon...
Higgins...                        Bengal...
Tuskahoma...                      Yanush...
Robbers Cave State Park...        Kiamichi...
Sardis...                         Gowen...
Panola...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for southeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3478 9552 3503 9543 3506 9494 3494 9499
      3494 9500 3491 9500 3485 9502 3485 9506
      3474 9506 3461 9511 3461 9551
TIME...MOT...LOC 0719Z 225DEG 47KT 3489 9533 3466 9546

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
248 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2017

OKZ049-074>076-200845-
Haskell OK-Latimer OK-Pushmataha OK-Le Flore OK-
248 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL...
NORTHEASTERN PUSHMATAHA...EASTERN LATIMER AND WESTERN LE FLORE
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

At 248 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles southeast of Lequire to 7 miles south of
Albion. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Talihina...                       Wister...
McCurtain...                      Bokoshe...
Fanshawe...                       Talimena State Park...
Bengal...                         Lake Wister State Park...
Whitesboro...                     Muse...
Summerfield...                    Milton...
Honobia...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for southeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3508 9505 3533 9470 3533 9469 3532 9468
      3451 9473 3451 9504 3450 9505 3450 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0748Z 219DEG 32KT 3506 9502 3456 9507