Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
923 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Clusters of mainly eleVATED storms continue to move northeast in
the area along and just southeast of I-44. A few of the more
organized bow segments have produced damaging wind gusts, along
with impressive rainfall amounts of nearly 3 inches per hour in
some places. Storms should continue to gradually translate east
into an environment that remains conducive to severe weather,
with sfc dew points in the lower 70s southeast of a boundary
extending from Franklin Co. to near KMLC. Low level wind shear
also remains supportive of at least a low-end tornado threat for
several more hours. Flash flooding remains a significant concern
along and south of I44 due to the excessive rainfall rates.

Changes to the forecast overall have been minor, asides from
adjusting POP forecast in the very near term and increasing the
QFP along and ahead of the slowly advancing line of storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 607 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing convection along the I-44 corridor is expected to increase
in coverage and spread eastward through the evening and early
morning hours. Aviation impacts should be expected with additional
lower ceilings following the frontal passage across all terminals
through the morning hours. VFR conditions are likely by Sat
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 324 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Latest surface analysis shows a stalled front across western
Oklahoma with various convective boundaries across the area.
Strong to severe storms are ongoing across northwest Arkansas.
More storms are approaching the area from southern and central
Oklahoma and this marks the next wave. Tornado watch will be
issued shortly.

Latest model guidance and radar trends would suggest the heaviest
rain will be across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
However with front and upper trough still west of the area, and
ongoing convection, will maintain flash flood watch and add
Pushmataha/Choctaw counties to the watch. The main severe threat
will be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes where storms can
take advantage of existing boundaries/increased SRH. Flash
flooding will also be a threat with another 1-3 inches of rain
possible, with the heaviest rains likely along and south of
Interstate 40.

Precipitation will end across eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas Saturday morning, with clearing from west to east by
Saturday afternoon. Cold front may make it to our western zones
by Saturday morning, and have lowered min temps a bit for this
possibility. Weather will be much improved by Sunday with light
winds and highs in the 70s. Overnight lows will be chilly by
Sunday morning, ranging from the mid to upper 40s across
northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas to mid 50s across southeast
Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  72  51  77 / 100  20   0   0
FSM   68  76  52  79 / 100  50   0   0
MLC   62  74  52  78 / 100  30   0   0
BVO   55  70  45  76 /  70  20   0   0
FYV   63  71  47  74 / 100  40   0   0
BYV   64  74  49  74 / 100  40   0   0
MKO   62  72  51  77 / 100  30   0   0
MIO   62  72  48  75 / 100  20   0   0
F10   61  73  51  77 / 100  20   0   0
HHW   66  76  55  80 / 100  60   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
454 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
454 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD POTENTIAL CONTINUES THRU TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA....Along and especially southeast of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Southeast of Interstate 44.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Primarily along and southeast of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Primarily along and southeast of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms through this
evening along and south of I-40 across Southeast Oklahoma into
West Central Arkansas. There is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms across Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas
through this evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the main
threats. Isolated tornadoes are possible where storms interact
with lingering boundaries, or with any bowing line segments late
this afternoon and into the evening.

Storms will continue to form along and southeast of Interstate 44
late this afternoon, likely remaining elevated in nature. Several
clusters of storms will continue to lift northeast across Eastern Oklahoma
and Western Arkansas through tonight. Other scattered storms may
develop near a developing surface low or trough and ahead of the
cold front across North Central Oklahoma either late this
afternoon or into the evening and will move across generally far
Northeast Oklahoma this evening. The better probability for
surface-based updraft development, and threat of isolated
tornadoes, remains across southeast Oklahoma and west central
Arkansas south of an outflow boundary. A locally enhanced tornado
threat will exist with storms that can interact with this
boundary.

There were multiple swaths of 2 to 4 inch rains across Eastern
Oklahoma from last night's convection. Depending on how convection
evolves today and whether this convection tracks over these same
areas, there will be a flash flood threat. There may be some river
flooding that occurs as well, but this will depend on the basins
where the heavy rains fall. At this time, the heavier rains are
more likely to fall generally near and south of I-44.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... Activation
of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY through TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY through THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms will end from west to east during the
day Saturday. The next storm system will affect the area Monday
into Tuesday bringing a chance of thunderstorms, but only a
limited risk of severe weather.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
909 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

OKZ058-200300-
Ottawa OK-
909 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OTTAWA COUNTY UNTIL 1000 PM
CDT...

At 908 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles northwest of Narcissa to 8 miles northeast of
Grove. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Miami...                          Commerce...
Quapaw...                         Wyandotte...
Picher...                         Narcissa...
Ottawa...                         Peoria...
Cardin...                         Twin Bridges State Park...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 302 and 324.

LAT...LON 3670 9462 3681 9500 3684 9500 3700 9482
      3700 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 235DEG 40KT 3684 9497 3667 9465

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
940 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

OKZ063-068-069-072-200330-
Adair OK-Sequoyah OK-Cherokee OK-Delaware OK-
940 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE...
NORTHWESTERN SEQUOYAH...ADAIR AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM
CDT...

At 940 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles northeast of Peggs to 3 miles southeast of
Greenleaf State Park. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tahlequah...                      Stilwell...
West Siloam Springs...            Kansas...
Hulbert...                        Oaks...
Marble City...                    Adair State Park...
Brushy...                         Christie...
Peggs...                          Pumpkin Center...
Maryetta...                       Cookson...
Brushy Lake State Park...         Cherokee Landing State Park...
Scraper...                        Bunch...
Lake Tenkiller State Park...      Baron...

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northeastern
and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3628 9459 3553 9463 3555 9513 3581 9513
      3581 9514 3607 9513 3608 9512 3611 9512
TIME...MOT...LOC 0240Z 266DEG 28KT 3612 9506 3559 9511

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1000 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BEGGS                   35.74N 96.07W
05/19/2017                   OKMULGEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 16 IN BEGGS CLOSED. SECTION OF HIGHWAY 75 CLOSED.
            SEVERAL OTHER KEY ROADWAYS ACROSS THE COUNTY CLOSED.
            MOTORISTS STRANDED. ALL CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1010 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1007 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W WAGONER             35.96N 95.39W
05/19/2017                   WAGONER            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING ON CHEROKEE ST IN WAGONER. FLOODED
            NEIGHBORHOODS. CREEKS AND DITCHES ARE FULL, DRAINS AT
            CAPACITY AND OVERFLOWING.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1011 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     FLASH FLOOD      OKMULGEE                35.62N 95.96W
05/19/2017                   OKMULGEE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

1008 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CHECOTAH                35.47N 95.52W
05/19/2017                   MCINTOSH           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            STREET FLOODING IN AND AROUND CHECOTAH.

&&

CAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1028 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

OKZ073-200400-
Pittsburg OK-
1028 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PITTSBURG COUNTY
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 1027 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles north of Krebs to near Ashland. Movement was
north at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mcalester...                      Krebs...
Savanna...                        Crowder...
Alderson...                       Canadian...
Ashland...                        Haywood...
Scipio...                         Arrowhead State Park...
Arpelar...                        Bache...

A tornado watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for southeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3500 9609 3522 9563 3490 9560 3472 9607
      3487 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 0327Z 171DEG 8KT 3502 9571 3477 9605