Severe Thunderstorm Warning 287, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
607 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing convection along the I-44 corridor is expected to increase
in coverage and spread eastward through the evening and early
morning hours. Aviation impacts should be expected with additional
lower ceilings following the frontal passage across all terminals
through the morning hours. VFR conditions are likely by Sat
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 324 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Latest surface analysis shows a stalled front across western
Oklahoma with various convective boundaries across the area.
Strong to severe storms are ongoing across northwest Arkansas.
More storms are approaching the area from southern and central
Oklahoma and this marks the next wave. Tornado watch will be
issued shortly.

Latest model guidance and radar trends would suggest the heaviest
rain will be across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
However with front and upper trough still west of the area, and
ongoing convection, will maintain flash flood watch and add
Pushmataha/Choctaw counties to the watch. The main severe threat
will be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes where storms can
take advantage of existing boundaries/increased SRH. Flash
flooding will also be a threat with another 1-3 inches of rain
possible, with the heaviest rains likely along and south of
Interstate 40.

Precipitation will end across eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas Saturday morning, with clearing from west to east by
Saturday afternoon. Cold front may make it to our western zones
by Saturday morning, and have lowered min temps a bit for this
possibility. Weather will be much improved by Sunday with light
winds and highs in the 70s. Overnight lows will be chilly by
Sunday morning, ranging from the mid to upper 40s across
northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas to mid 50s across southeast
Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  72  51  77 /  90  20   0   0
FSM   68  76  52  79 / 100  50   0   0
MLC   62  74  52  78 / 100  30   0   0
BVO   55  70  45  76 /  90  20   0   0
FYV   63  71  47  74 /  80  40   0   0
BYV   64  74  49  74 /  80  40   0   0
MKO   62  72  51  77 /  90  30   0   0
MIO   62  72  48  75 /  90  20   0   0
F10   61  73  51  77 /  90  20   0   0
HHW   66  76  55  80 / 100  60   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
454 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
454 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD POTENTIAL CONTINUES THRU TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA....Along and especially southeast of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Southeast of Interstate 44.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Primarily along and southeast of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Primarily along and southeast of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms through this
evening along and south of I-40 across Southeast Oklahoma into
West Central Arkansas. There is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms across Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas
through this evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the main
threats. Isolated tornadoes are possible where storms interact
with lingering boundaries, or with any bowing line segments late
this afternoon and into the evening.

Storms will continue to form along and southeast of Interstate 44
late this afternoon, likely remaining elevated in nature. Several
clusters of storms will continue to lift northeast across Eastern Oklahoma
and Western Arkansas through tonight. Other scattered storms may
develop near a developing surface low or trough and ahead of the
cold front across North Central Oklahoma either late this
afternoon or into the evening and will move across generally far
Northeast Oklahoma this evening. The better probability for
surface-based updraft development, and threat of isolated
tornadoes, remains across southeast Oklahoma and west central
Arkansas south of an outflow boundary. A locally enhanced tornado
threat will exist with storms that can interact with this
boundary.

There were multiple swaths of 2 to 4 inch rains across Eastern
Oklahoma from last night's convection. Depending on how convection
evolves today and whether this convection tracks over these same
areas, there will be a flash flood threat. There may be some river
flooding that occurs as well, but this will depend on the basins
where the heavy rains fall. At this time, the heavier rains are
more likely to fall generally near and south of I-44.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... Activation
of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY through TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY through THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms will end from west to east during the
day Saturday. The next storm system will affect the area Monday
into Tuesday bringing a chance of thunderstorms, but only a
limited risk of severe weather.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
623 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     HAIL             WAGONER                 35.96N 95.37W
05/19/2017  E0.88 INCH       WAGONER            OK   PUBLIC

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
635 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     HAIL             WAGONER                 35.96N 95.37W
05/19/2017  E1.25 INCH       WAGONER            OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

KAH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
716 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

ARZ001-OKZ063-068-069-200045-
Benton AR-Adair OK-Cherokee OK-Delaware OK-
716 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BENTON...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHWESTERN ADAIR AND NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 716 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 2 miles west of Maysville to 6 miles west of Scraper.
Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Siloam Springs...                 Jay...
Gentry...                         Gravette...
Decatur...                        West Siloam Springs...
Colcord...                        Kansas...
Oaks...                           Maysville...
Hiwasse...                        Leach...
Twin Oaks...                      Sulphur Springs...
Lake Eucha State Park...          Cherokee City...
Natural Falls State Park...

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northwestern
Arkansas...and northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3650 9462 3650 9422 3619 9456 3603 9508
      3616 9504 3616 9501 3629 9501 3641 9497
      3652 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 245DEG 37KT 3640 9464 3611 9496

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
722 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

OKZ060-061-067-200045-
Tulsa OK-Rogers OK-Wagoner OK-
722 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL ROGERS...
NORTHWESTERN WAGONER AND SOUTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM
CDT...

At 722 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Tulsa to 3 miles east of Mounds. Movement was
northeast at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Owasso...                         Bixby...
Jenks...                          Glenpool...
Catoosa...                        Liberty...
Leonard...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 220 and 237.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3633 9572 3586 9575 3585 9592 3586 9592
      3586 9603 3617 9600
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 223DEG 31KT 3615 9597 3586 9600

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
736 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
05/19/2017                   TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMB DOWNED AT 51ST AND ST LOUIS.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
738 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S KIEFER              35.92N 96.07W
05/19/2017                   CREEK              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING ON HIGHWAY 75A BETWEEN 161ST STREET SOUTH AND
            171ST STREET SOUTH.

&&

KAH