Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2017

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Tulsa, OK

April 29, 2017Carroll County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 29, 2017, 6:10 AM CDT for Carroll County, Arkansas. It was in force for 35 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 29, 2017, 6:10 AM CDT (11:10 UTC)
Expired: Apr 29, 2017, 6:45 AM CDT
In force: 35 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Carroll County, AR

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Apr 28, 10:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 64 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 65 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -331 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 506 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 74 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 55 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 72 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

654 
WUUS54 KTSA 291110
SVRTSA
ARC015-291145-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0180.170429T1110Z-170429T1145Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
610 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northeastern Carroll County in northwestern Arkansas...

* Until 645 AM CDT

* At 610 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Urbanette,
  moving northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage 
           to roofs, siding, and trees. 

* Locations in or near the path include...
  Berryville...                     Green Forest...
  Urbanette...                      Blue Eye...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3629 9345 3637 9363 3650 9358 3650 9330
      3642 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1110Z 209DEG 38KT 3640 9349 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

2 follow-up statements

414 
WWUS54 KTSA 291124
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

ARC015-291145-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0180.000000T0000Z-170429T1145Z/
Carroll AR-
624 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY...

At 624 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Urbanette,
moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations in or near the path include...
Berryville...                     Green Forest...
Urbanette...                      Blue Eye...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3629 9345 3637 9363 3650 9358 3650 9330
      3642 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1124Z 223DEG 38KT 3644 9351 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

479 
WWUS54 KTSA 291141
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
641 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

ARC015-291151-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0180.000000T0000Z-170429T1145Z/
Carroll AR-
641 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 645 AM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore the warning will be
allowed to expire.  However heavy rain is still possible with this
thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Tulsa.

LAT...LON 3629 9345 3637 9363 3650 9358 3650 9330
      3642 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1141Z 270DEG 38KT 3659 9341 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 29, 3:24 AM CDT, 2 hours 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 29, 3:24 AM CDT, 2 hours 46 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
324 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Impressive setup taking shape for significant rainfall event
across much of eastern OK and western AR. Bottom line is that high
risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding will exist through
tonight as has been advertised. Widespread 4-6 inch rainfall
amounts likely with local totals around 10 inches definitely
possible before all is said and done.

Early AM sfc analysis showed an increasingly well-defined warm
front from just north of KFSM and extending back into southwest
OK near KLAW. Front zone has sharpened as low level flow to the
south responds to approaching upper system and widespread precip
to the north reinforces the cooling to the north. Boundary not
expected to move significantly during the day and will remain the
focus for the more significant flooding and severe weather
potential. Very impressive moisture transport continues to ride
into frontal zone with widespread showers and thunderstorms
continuing to move over same general area. Airmass south of the
front remains quite moist and unstable with sfc CAPE near 4000j/kg
and while most storms should remain elevated to the north of the
front, with very large hail and some threat of damaging winds, any
storm that can become rooted in the boundary layer and ingest
this air will pose a threat of tornadoes.

Slow movement of upper system will allow continued northward
moisture transport and strong synoptic forcing through this
evening, before front finally moves east of the area by Sunday.
Windy and cool conditions will prevail Sunday with a few showers
remaining possible in northern areas.

A faster moving shortwave in northwest flow will bring another
shot of widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Storms should mainly be elevated north of sfc
boundary, and fast movement of system will keep rainfall amounts
much more reasonable. Long stretch of dry weather should follow
beyond that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  49  56  42 / 100  80  20  10
FSM   80  57  65  45 / 100  90  30  10
MLC   79  50  61  44 / 100  80  20   0
BVO   59  49  53  41 / 100  80  30  10
FYV   74  55  58  43 / 100  90  30  10
BYV   74  59  62  42 / 100  90  40  10
MKO   72  51  58  43 / 100  80  20  10
MIO   68  52  57  42 / 100  80  30  20
F10   68  49  59  43 / 100  80  20  10
HHW   80  54  64  46 / 100  90  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ049-053-057-058-
     060>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 29, 5:43 AM CDT, 27 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
543 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
543 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT FLOOD AND SEVERE RISK THRU THE WEEKEND...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...East Central and Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...This afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...East Central and Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Along and southeast of I-44.
	ONSET...This morning.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Along and southeast of I-44.
	ONSET...This morning.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Between I-44 and I-40.

DISCUSSION...

Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms are expected across
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas today and tonight. Large
hail to baseball size and damaging wind gusts to 70 mph are the
main threats. A limited tornado threat exists later today into
the evening down closer to the warm front across east central and
southeast Oklahoma as well as west central Arkansas. What may be
of more significance is the increasing and potentially life-
threatening flood threat as these multiple rounds of storms track
over the same areas.

Storms this morning across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas will pose a severe wind and hail risk. Storms may
actually persist off and on thru the day across this region, with
an increasing flash flood risk with time.

Additional storm development is expected this afternoon across
east central and southeast Oklahoma closer to the front with the
activity expected to move into west central Arkansas by early
evening. This activity will have the potential to produce the
greatest severe threat, with very large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes possible. A flash flood threat will also
increase with time over this area.

The severe threat will decrease tonight as the storms exit the
region to the east. However, the flood threat will likely linger
through the weekend.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... Activation
of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms will be exiting the region to the east Sunday
morning. Winds will increase as an area of low pressure
intensifies to our north and will become gusty at times.

Another storm system diving into the region from the northwest
will bring thunderstorm potential late Tuesday into Wednesday.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

Lacy

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 29, 3:39 AM CDT, 2 hours 31 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
339 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

OKZ054-290915-
Osage OK-
339 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
415 AM CDT...

At 339 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles northwest of
Bigheart, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Elgin...                          Bigheart...
Wah Sha She State Park...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3700 9601 3672 9629 3684 9649 3700 9644
TIME...MOT...LOC 0839Z 219DEG 40KT 3690 9633

69

Local storm report, Apr 29, 4:49 AM CDT, 1 hour 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
449 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 W SKIATOOK            36.37N 96.04W
04/29/2017  E60 MPH          OSAGE              OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            60 MPH WINDS AND NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

RJS

Special weather statement, Apr 29, 5:17 AM CDT, 53 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
517 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

OKZ054-059-291045-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
517 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OSAGE AND CENTRAL PAWNEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM CDT...

At 516 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles southwest of Burbank to 4 miles northwest of
Quay. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Fairfax...
Shidler...                        Ralston...
Burbank...                        Blackburn...
Maramec...                        Skedee...
Grainola...                       Foraker...
Eastern Kaw Lake...               Webb City...
Apperson...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9654 3646 9644 3616 9672 3616 9680
      3666 9690 3675 9685 3674 9683 3677 9682
      3677 9679 3678 9679 3678 9675 3689 9675
      3700 9668
TIME...MOT...LOC 1016Z 211DEG 39KT 3664 9685 3620 9677

Local storm report, Apr 29, 5:44 AM CDT, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
544 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 AM     TSTM WND GST     TALALA                  36.53N 95.70W
04/29/2017  M77 MPH          ROGERS             OK   MESONET

&&

RJS

Local storm report, Apr 29, 5:45 AM CDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
545 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 AM     TSTM WND DMG     TALALA                  36.53N 95.70W
04/29/2017                   ROGERS             OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF BLOWN OFF HOUSE.

&&

RJS

Local storm report, Apr 29, 5:57 AM CDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
557 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 N PRYOR               36.37N 95.32W
04/29/2017  E65 MPH          MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

RJS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 28, 9:37 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Madison	23 min
Apr 28, 9:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll, Madison	47 min
Apr 28, 10:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Madison, Washington	43 min
Apr 28, 10:25 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Sebastian	35 min
Apr 28, 10:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Washington	33 min
Apr 28, 10:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Madison, Washington	25 min
Apr 28, 10:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Crawford	33 min
Apr 28, 10:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Washington	27 min
Apr 28, 10:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll	23 min
Apr 28, 10:58 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Crawford, Sebastian	31 min
Apr 28, 10:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Washington	31 min
Apr 28, 11:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Washington	23 min
Apr 28, 11:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Carroll	34 min
Apr 28, 11:20 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	25 min
Apr 28, 11:33 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison, Washington	6 hr
Apr 28, 11:33 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	27 min
Apr 28, 11:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll	26 min
Apr 28, 11:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Washington	27 min
Apr 29, 12:06 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Madison, Washington	39 min
Apr 29, 12:16 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	29 min
Apr 29, 12:22 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Washington	38 min
Apr 29, 12:41 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Carroll	34 min
Apr 29, 1:02 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Washington	43 min
Apr 29, 1:26 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Washington	34 min
Apr 29, 1:45 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll	15 min
Apr 29, 1:49 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Washington	41 min
Apr 29, 2:01 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Washington	29 min
Apr 29, 2:22 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll	38 min
Apr 29, 2:27 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Washington	33 min
Apr 29, 2:57 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Washington	33 min
Apr 29, 5:21 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison, Washington	6 hr
Apr 29, 8:38 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Benton, Washington	10 hr
Apr 29, 12:36 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian, Washington	6 hr
Apr 29, 1:01 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	29 min
Apr 29, 1:07 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison, Washington	6 hr
Apr 29, 1:20 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Sebastian	25 min
Apr 29, 1:47 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Carroll, Franklin, Madison	6 hr
Apr 29, 1:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Franklin	33 min
Apr 29, 3:19 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Madison	26 min
Apr 29, 4:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Washington	32 min
Apr 29, 4:58 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Crawford, Washington	14 min
Apr 29, 5:16 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	44 min
Apr 29, 5:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Washington	34 min
Apr 29, 5:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	27 min
Apr 29, 5:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Washington	23 min
Apr 29, 6:19 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more	10 hr
Apr 29, 6:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	52 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2017 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.