Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1003 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...UPDATE...
This evening a warm frontal boundary had entered into Southeast
Oklahoma while a cold frontal boundary had pushed southeast into
Northwest Oklahoma and Southeast Kansas. These two boundaries were
associated with a surface boundary over Southwest Texas and an
upper low moving into Northern New Mexico. In response...scattered
showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with a couple storms in Northwest
Arkansas quickly becoming strong to potentially severe.

Through the overnight hours...the warm frontal boundary is
expected to lift a little further north to perhaps near/slightly
north of the Interstate 40 corridor while the cold push in
Southeast Kansas moves into the northern part of Northeast
Oklahoma. This will allow for thunderstorms to continue to develop
and spread across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...with
the greater potential north of the warm front. Mostly elevated
convection late this evening should continue overnight.
However...any storms that can develop and be rooted with the warm
front could have the potential to become more surface based. The
result will continue severe potentials overnight with large
hail...damaging winds and also a small tornado threat across the
CWA.

Late tonight into Saturday morning...convection out west should
also spread into CWA and transform the severe potential into more
of a large hail and damaging wind threat. Also...tonight into
Saturday with the multiple rounds of thunderstorms
forecast...periods of heavy rainfall increasing flash flooding
conditions will become possible. Thus...will keep the current
flash flood watch as is.

Temperatures overnight...should remain on the warm side within the
warm sector across Southeast Oklahoma...while parts of Northeast
Oklahoma could fall into the lower 50s behind the cold push moving
toward the region.

In response to the events for tonight...for the evening update...
have added minor tweaks to the overnight grids based on current
trends as the current forecast seems to be in fairly good shape.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  72  49  58 / 100 100  80  50
FSM   68  82  59  68 /  60 100 100  50
MLC   68  79  51  63 /  70  90  80  30
BVO   56  65  48  55 / 100  90  80  50
FYV   64  76  56  60 /  80 100 100  60
BYV   64  78  61  61 / 100 100 100  60
MKO   65  77  52  61 /  80 100  80  50
MIO   61  71  53  57 / 100 100  90  60
F10   65  76  49  60 /  70 100  80  30
HHW   71  80  55  64 /  40  90  90  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ049-053-057-058-
     060>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
535 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
535 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND SEVERE RISK THRU THE WEEKEND...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This evening and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 8 pm.

	Area OF GREATER RISK...Mainly north of a McAlester to Fort Smith
						   line and along and south of Interstate 44.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 8 pm.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Mainly north of a McAlester to Fort Smith
						   line and along and south of Interstate 44.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 8 pm.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 8 pm.

DISCUSSION...
Severe storm chances along with potential flash flooding will
increase this evening and overnight tonight across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Very large hail to baseball size,
damaging winds to 70 mph, and an isolated tornado are possible.

Clusters of thunderstorms continuing to develop over the Oklahoma
and Texas Panhandles will continue to push eastward and move into
Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas late this evening and
overnight. At the same time...additional thunderstorms are
forecast to develop this evening and tonight along and north of a
warm frontal boundary lifting north across Southeast Oklahoma and
Western Arkansas. All modes of severe weather will be possible
with this activity through into the overnight hours and transition
to more of a large hail and damaging wind threat late tonight
across the region.

Also through tonight...multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are
expected to develop across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas
as the frontal boundary becomes nearly stationary over the region.
This will increase the potential for flash flooding with the
greater potential over Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas.
A flash flood watch is in effect starting this evening and
continuing into Sunday morning.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will continue to impact the region
Saturday and Saturday night as a powerful upper level storm system
develops to our west and interacts with a frontal boundary draped
over the region. Storm total rainfall in the 4 to 7 inch range is
expected, with locally heavier amounts likely across much of northeast
and east central Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas thru Sunday.
This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and significant flooding of area rivers and lakes. Locations
downstream from dams could see significant flooding as water is
released from the flooded lakes.

The quasi-stationary frontal boundary and approaching upper system
will continue to be the focus for storms with severe potential
during the afternoon and evening hours Saturday. The severe
weather threat...and heavy rainfall threat will will come to an
end from west to east as a cold front sweeps across the region
late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Towards the middle of next week...another storm system will bring
the potential for more storms to the region. This system is expected
to push through too quickly to bring significant rainfall. Organized
severe weather is not expected either.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
This is an evolving system and the axis of heavy rainfall will
likely continue to be fine tuned. Continue to follow the latest
updates and forecasts over the next 24 to 36 hours regarding the
expected hazardous weather that will affect much of the area this
weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
954 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2017

OKZ076-290330-
Le Flore OK-
954 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LE FLORE COUNTY UNTIL
1030 PM CDT...

At 954 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Lake Wister
State Park, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Poteau...                         Spiro...
Panama...                         Wister...
Howe...                           Cameron...
Lake Wister State Park...         Shady Point...
Rock Island...                    Scullyville...
Summerfield...

LAT...LON 3482 9473 3492 9490 3530 9461 3518 9444
      3516 9444
TIME...MOT...LOC 0254Z 215DEG 46KT 3494 9477

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1042 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2017

ARZ010-019-OKZ069-072-290415-
Washington AR-Crawford AR-Adair OK-Sequoyah OK-
1042 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH AND SOUTHEASTERN
ADAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1041 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Short, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel to penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Cedarville...                     Natural Dam...
Winslow...                        Chester...
Devils Den State Park...          Strickler...
Blackburn...                      Figure Five...
Lee Creek...                      Short...
Clyde...                          Uniontown...
Odell...                          Morrow...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 35 and 45.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Tulsa.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
northwestern Arkansas...and northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3548 9436 3555 9468 3594 9453 3579 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 0341Z 214DEG 37KT 3560 9450