Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
328 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A high impact flooding event continues across the region...with
several flash flood warnings in effect for a large part of
northeast OK and northwest AR. Multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms have resulted in widespread 2-5 inch rain amounts
with some local amounts over 6-7 inches. We've received numerous
reports of street flooding...closed bridges and high
water...especially across northwest AR. Mainstem river flooding
will be a major issue...with 23 forecast points currently in
flood (many moderate to major).

Currently...a stationary front was draped across northwest AR into
southeast OK to a surface wave near Durant. One area of heavy rain
continues along this boundary...with a secondary area of
showers/storms farther west along inverted surface trof. The
multiple rounds of precipitation have sufficiently squashed the
warm sector...although far southeast OK remains quite warm/moist
and unstable (dewpoints running in the lower/mid 70s). Will need
to monitor this area over the next few hours for potential severe
convection.

The secondary area of showers/storms will persist through the
rest of the afternoon/early evening...moving back over areas that
received significant rainfall. Expect flash flood/areal flood
warnings to continue well into the overnight hours.

Rainfall will taper off later this evening and overnight as the
deep upper cyclone lifts northeast into KS. Could see some
lingering wraparound showers into Sunday morning...otherwise
expect a cool and very breezy day.

The next chance of precipitation comes Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a fast moving upper trof drops southeast through the
Rockies. A developing surface boundary across the region will be
the main focus...with most precipitation mainly along and north of
the front. This would result in additional rainfall across areas
that have been hit hard over the past 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  58  42  72 /  80  30  10  10
FSM   59  66  44  74 /  90  20  10  10
MLC   51  61  45  74 /  80  10  10   0
BVO   48  54  40  70 /  80  40  10  10
FYV   54  59  42  67 /  90  30  10  10
BYV   59  64  42  66 / 100  40  10  10
MKO   51  58  42  72 /  80  20  10  10
MIO   52  58  42  66 /  80  50  20  10
F10   49  58  43  72 /  80  20  10   0
HHW   54  64  45  74 /  90  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1131 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1131 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT FLOOD AND SEVERE RISK THRU THE WEEKEND...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Much of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...East of Highway 69 in Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...East of Highway 69 in Oklahoma.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...East of Highway 69 in Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms producing very heavy rain continue late
this morning across far northwest Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma
in the vicinty of the a slow moving frontal boundary. Showers and
thunderstorms along this boundary will slowly shift to the east
Today and into Tonight and intensify as an upper level low over
New Mexico moves closer to the area. An additional 4 to 6 inches
of rain will be possible through tonight with locally higher amounts, mainly east
of Highway 69. This will lead to potentially life threatening flooding.
Lesser amounts of rain are expected north of Interstate 44.

Severe weather will also be possible as well in the vicinity of the
frontal boundary with damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes all
possible.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY and Friday...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will be exiting the region to the east Sunday
morning. Winds will increase as an area of low pressure
intensifies to our north and will become gusty at times.

Another storm system diving into the region from the northwest
will bring thunderstorm potential late Tuesday into Wednesday.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
346 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

OKZ070-071-073>075-292115-
Haskell OK-Pittsburg OK-Latimer OK-Muskogee OK-McIntosh OK-
346 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HASKELL...EAST
CENTRAL MCINTOSH...WESTERN LATIMER...EASTERN PITTSBURG AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MUSKOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 346 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles east of
Blocker, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mcalester...                      Wilburton...
Stigler...                        Hartshorne...
Krebs...                          Quinton...
Whitefield...                     Alderson...
Kinta...                          Higgins...
Briartown...                      Blocker...
Robbers Cave State Park...        Enterprise...
Damon...                          Arrowhead State Park...
Haileyville...                    Gowen...
Dow...                            Bache...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 9578 3542 9548 3527 9509 3468 9540
      3468 9549
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 202DEG 41KT 3508 9546

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
348 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N SILOAM SPRINGS      36.22N 94.54W
04/29/2017  M7.87 INCH       BENTON             AR   MESONET

&&

PMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
349 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E SILOAM SPRINGS      36.19N 94.49W
04/29/2017  M6.41 INCH       BENTON             AR   MESONET

&&

PMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
355 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 N MAYSVILLE           36.48N 94.61W
04/29/2017  M4.61 INCH       BENTON             AR   MESONET

&&

PMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
356 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N HIWASSE             36.46N 94.33W
04/29/2017  M4.42 INCH       BENTON             AR   MESONET

&&

PMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
407 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HEAVY RAIN       JAY                     36.42N 94.80W
04/29/2017  M1.61 INCH       DELAWARE           OK   MESONET

            RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS

0350 PM     HEAVY RAIN       TAHLEQUAH               35.92N 94.97W
04/29/2017  M3.19 INCH       CHEROKEE           OK   MESONET

            RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS

0355 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WESTVILLE               35.99N 94.57W
04/29/2017  M1.76 INCH       ADAIR              OK   MESONET

            RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS

0355 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WEBBERS FALLS           35.51N 95.13W
04/29/2017  M2.46 INCH       MUSKOGEE           OK   MESONET

            RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS

&&

AEJ