Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
324 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Impressive setup taking shape for significant rainfall event
across much of eastern OK and western AR. Bottom line is that high
risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding will exist through
tonight as has been advertised. Widespread 4-6 inch rainfall
amounts likely with local totals around 10 inches definitely
possible before all is said and done.

Early AM sfc analysis showed an increasingly well-defined warm
front from just north of KFSM and extending back into southwest
OK near KLAW. Front zone has sharpened as low level flow to the
south responds to approaching upper system and widespread precip
to the north reinforces the cooling to the north. Boundary not
expected to move significantly during the day and will remain the
focus for the more significant flooding and severe weather
potential. Very impressive moisture transport continues to ride
into frontal zone with widespread showers and thunderstorms
continuing to move over same general area. Airmass south of the
front remains quite moist and unstable with sfc CAPE near 4000j/kg
and while most storms should remain elevated to the north of the
front, with very large hail and some threat of damaging winds, any
storm that can become rooted in the boundary layer and ingest
this air will pose a threat of tornadoes.

Slow movement of upper system will allow continued northward
moisture transport and strong synoptic forcing through this
evening, before front finally moves east of the area by Sunday.
Windy and cool conditions will prevail Sunday with a few showers
remaining possible in northern areas.

A faster moving shortwave in northwest flow will bring another
shot of widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Storms should mainly be elevated north of sfc
boundary, and fast movement of system will keep rainfall amounts
much more reasonable. Long stretch of dry weather should follow
beyond that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  49  56  42 / 100  80  20  10
FSM   80  57  65  45 / 100  90  30  10
MLC   79  50  61  44 / 100  80  20   0
BVO   59  49  53  41 / 100  80  30  10
FYV   74  55  58  43 / 100  90  30  10
BYV   74  59  62  42 / 100  90  40  10
MKO   72  51  58  43 / 100  80  20  10
MIO   68  52  57  42 / 100  80  30  20
F10   68  49  59  43 / 100  80  20  10
HHW   80  54  64  46 / 100  90  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ049-053-057-058-
     060>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
543 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
543 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT FLOOD AND SEVERE RISK THRU THE WEEKEND...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...East Central and Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...This afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...East Central and Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Along and southeast of I-44.
	ONSET...This morning.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Along and southeast of I-44.
	ONSET...This morning.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Between I-44 and I-40.

DISCUSSION...

Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms are expected across
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas today and tonight. Large
hail to baseball size and damaging wind gusts to 70 mph are the
main threats. A limited tornado threat exists later today into
the evening down closer to the warm front across east central and
southeast Oklahoma as well as west central Arkansas. What may be
of more significance is the increasing and potentially life-
threatening flood threat as these multiple rounds of storms track
over the same areas.

Storms this morning across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas will pose a severe wind and hail risk. Storms may
actually persist off and on thru the day across this region, with
an increasing flash flood risk with time.

Additional storm development is expected this afternoon across
east central and southeast Oklahoma closer to the front with the
activity expected to move into west central Arkansas by early
evening. This activity will have the potential to produce the
greatest severe threat, with very large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes possible. A flash flood threat will also
increase with time over this area.

The severe threat will decrease tonight as the storms exit the
region to the east. However, the flood threat will likely linger
through the weekend.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... Activation
of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms will be exiting the region to the east Sunday
morning. Winds will increase as an area of low pressure
intensifies to our north and will become gusty at times.

Another storm system diving into the region from the northwest
will bring thunderstorm potential late Tuesday into Wednesday.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
545 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 AM     TSTM WND DMG     TALALA                  36.53N 95.70W
04/29/2017                   ROGERS             OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF BLOWN OFF HOUSE.

&&

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
557 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 N PRYOR               36.37N 95.32W
04/29/2017  E65 MPH          MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

RJS

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