Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Tulsa, OK

149 
WWUS54 KTSA 291052
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
552 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

OKC117-291102-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-170429T1115Z/
Pawnee OK-
552 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PAWNEE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3672 9622 3654 9609 3632 9640 3643 9659
      3679 9673 3700 9649 3700 9647
TIME...MOT...LOC 1052Z 208DEG 50KT 3680 9646 3660 9643 3647 9644 

$$

OKC113-291115-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-170429T1115Z/
Osage OK-
552 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM CDT
FOR CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY...

At 552 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Pearsonia to 7 miles northwest of Wynona to 4 miles
northwest of Hominy, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawhuska...                       Hominy...
Barnsdall...                      Shidler...
Wynona...                         Foraker...
Pearsonia...                      Webb City...
Pershing...                       Nelagoney...
Tallant...                        

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3672 9622 3654 9609 3632 9640 3643 9659
      3679 9673 3700 9649 3700 9647
TIME...MOT...LOC 1052Z 208DEG 50KT 3680 9646 3660 9643 3647 9644 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
324 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Impressive setup taking shape for significant rainfall event
across much of eastern OK and western AR. Bottom line is that high
risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding will exist through
tonight as has been advertised. Widespread 4-6 inch rainfall
amounts likely with local totals around 10 inches definitely
possible before all is said and done.

Early AM sfc analysis showed an increasingly well-defined warm
front from just north of KFSM and extending back into southwest
OK near KLAW. Front zone has sharpened as low level flow to the
south responds to approaching upper system and widespread precip
to the north reinforces the cooling to the north. Boundary not
expected to move significantly during the day and will remain the
focus for the more significant flooding and severe weather
potential. Very impressive moisture transport continues to ride
into frontal zone with widespread showers and thunderstorms
continuing to move over same general area. Airmass south of the
front remains quite moist and unstable with sfc CAPE near 4000j/kg
and while most storms should remain elevated to the north of the
front, with very large hail and some threat of damaging winds, any
storm that can become rooted in the boundary layer and ingest
this air will pose a threat of tornadoes.

Slow movement of upper system will allow continued northward
moisture transport and strong synoptic forcing through this
evening, before front finally moves east of the area by Sunday.
Windy and cool conditions will prevail Sunday with a few showers
remaining possible in northern areas.

A faster moving shortwave in northwest flow will bring another
shot of widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Storms should mainly be elevated north of sfc
boundary, and fast movement of system will keep rainfall amounts
much more reasonable. Long stretch of dry weather should follow
beyond that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  49  56  42 / 100  80  20  10
FSM   80  57  65  45 / 100  90  30  10
MLC   79  50  61  44 / 100  80  20   0
BVO   59  49  53  41 / 100  80  30  10
FYV   74  55  58  43 / 100  90  30  10
BYV   74  59  62  42 / 100  90  40  10
MKO   72  51  58  43 / 100  80  20  10
MIO   68  52  57  42 / 100  80  30  20
F10   68  49  59  43 / 100  80  20  10
HHW   80  54  64  46 / 100  90  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ049-053-057-058-
     060>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
535 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
535 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND SEVERE RISK THRU THE WEEKEND...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This evening and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 8 pm.

	Area OF GREATER RISK...Mainly north of a McAlester to Fort Smith
						   line and along and south of Interstate 44.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 8 pm.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Mainly north of a McAlester to Fort Smith
						   line and along and south of Interstate 44.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 8 pm.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 8 pm.

DISCUSSION...
Severe storm chances along with potential flash flooding will
increase this evening and overnight tonight across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Very large hail to baseball size,
damaging winds to 70 mph, and an isolated tornado are possible.

Clusters of thunderstorms continuing to develop over the Oklahoma
and Texas Panhandles will continue to push eastward and move into
Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas late this evening and
overnight. At the same time...additional thunderstorms are
forecast to develop this evening and tonight along and north of a
warm frontal boundary lifting north across Southeast Oklahoma and
Western Arkansas. All modes of severe weather will be possible
with this activity through into the overnight hours and transition
to more of a large hail and damaging wind threat late tonight
across the region.

Also through tonight...multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are
expected to develop across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas
as the frontal boundary becomes nearly stationary over the region.
This will increase the potential for flash flooding with the
greater potential over Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas.
A flash flood watch is in effect starting this evening and
continuing into Sunday morning.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will continue to impact the region
Saturday and Saturday night as a powerful upper level storm system
develops to our west and interacts with a frontal boundary draped
over the region. Storm total rainfall in the 4 to 7 inch range is
expected, with locally heavier amounts likely across much of northeast
and east central Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas thru Sunday.
This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and significant flooding of area rivers and lakes. Locations
downstream from dams could see significant flooding as water is
released from the flooded lakes.

The quasi-stationary frontal boundary and approaching upper system
will continue to be the focus for storms with severe potential
during the afternoon and evening hours Saturday. The severe
weather threat...and heavy rainfall threat will will come to an
end from west to east as a cold front sweeps across the region
late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Towards the middle of next week...another storm system will bring
the potential for more storms to the region. This system is expected
to push through too quickly to bring significant rainfall. Organized
severe weather is not expected either.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
This is an evolving system and the axis of heavy rainfall will
likely continue to be fine tuned. Continue to follow the latest
updates and forecasts over the next 24 to 36 hours regarding the
expected hazardous weather that will affect much of the area this
weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
241 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

OKZ054-059-290815-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
241 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OSAGE AND NORTHWESTERN
PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

At 241 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles south of
Ralston, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawhuska...                       Pawnee...
Fairfax...                        Shidler...
Ralston...                        Burbank...
Blackburn...                      Skedee...

LAT...LON 3627 9675 3648 9696 3689 9661 3662 9625
TIME...MOT...LOC 0741Z 224DEG 36KT 3646 9675

69

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
246 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

OKZ057-058-062-063-068-069-290830-
Adair OK-Craig OK-Cherokee OK-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-Mayes OK-
246 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG...DELAWARE...
SOUTHERN OTTAWA...EASTERN MAYES...NORTHWESTERN ADAIR AND NORTHEASTERN
CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

At 246 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles northwest of Bernice to 3 miles east of Peggs.
Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel to penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be
possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Jay...                            Grove...
Fairland...                       Afton...
West Siloam Springs...            Langley...
Colcord...                        Kansas...
Bernice...                        Ketchum...
Spavinaw...                       Wyandotte...
Disney...                         Oaks...
Honey Creek State Park...         Cherokee State Park...
Rose...                           Bernice State Park...
Leach...                          Cleora...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 288 and 304.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3650 9462 3618 9458 3598 9510 3668 9509
      3697 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0746Z 233DEG 39KT 3664 9497 3609 9503

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
303 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

OKZ054-059-290900-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
303 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

At 302 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 2 miles northwest of Marland to 6 miles north of
Morrison to 3 miles northeast of Stillwater. Movement was northeast
at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Hominy...
Fairfax...                        Shidler...
Ralston...                        Burbank...
Blackburn...                      Maramec...
Skedee...                         Grainola...
Southern Kaw Lake...              Webb City...
Apperson...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3692 9662 3639 9638 3616 9682 3624 9682
      3625 9692 3633 9693 3634 9703 3651 9703
      3658 9689 3660 9692 3659 9705 3668 9706
      3670 9703 3668 9694 3675 9689 3674 9683
      3677 9682 3678 9675 3700 9675 3700 9667
TIME...MOT...LOC 0802Z 212DEG 45KT 3658 9717 3639 9705 3616 9703

69

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
339 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

OKZ054-290915-
Osage OK-
339 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
415 AM CDT...

At 339 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles northwest of
Bigheart, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Elgin...                          Bigheart...
Wah Sha She State Park...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3700 9601 3672 9629 3684 9649 3700 9644
TIME...MOT...LOC 0839Z 219DEG 40KT 3690 9633

69

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
449 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 W SKIATOOK            36.37N 96.04W
04/29/2017  E60 MPH          OSAGE              OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            60 MPH WINDS AND NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
517 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

OKZ054-059-291045-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
517 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OSAGE AND CENTRAL PAWNEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM CDT...

At 516 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles southwest of Burbank to 4 miles northwest of
Quay. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Fairfax...
Shidler...                        Ralston...
Burbank...                        Blackburn...
Maramec...                        Skedee...
Grainola...                       Foraker...
Eastern Kaw Lake...               Webb City...
Apperson...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9654 3646 9644 3616 9672 3616 9680
      3666 9690 3675 9685 3674 9683 3677 9682
      3677 9679 3678 9679 3678 9675 3689 9675
      3700 9668
TIME...MOT...LOC 1016Z 211DEG 39KT 3664 9685 3620 9677