Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Tulsa, OK

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
535 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
535 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND SEVERE RISK THRU THE WEEKEND...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This evening and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 8 pm.

	Area OF GREATER RISK...Mainly north of a McAlester to Fort Smith
						   line and along and south of Interstate 44.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 8 pm.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Mainly north of a McAlester to Fort Smith
						   line and along and south of Interstate 44.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 8 pm.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 8 pm.

DISCUSSION...
Severe storm chances along with potential flash flooding will
increase this evening and overnight tonight across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Very large hail to baseball size,
damaging winds to 70 mph, and an isolated tornado are possible.

Clusters of thunderstorms continuing to develop over the Oklahoma
and Texas Panhandles will continue to push eastward and move into
Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas late this evening and
overnight. At the same time...additional thunderstorms are
forecast to develop this evening and tonight along and north of a
warm frontal boundary lifting north across Southeast Oklahoma and
Western Arkansas. All modes of severe weather will be possible
with this activity through into the overnight hours and transition
to more of a large hail and damaging wind threat late tonight
across the region.

Also through tonight...multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are
expected to develop across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas
as the frontal boundary becomes nearly stationary over the region.
This will increase the potential for flash flooding with the
greater potential over Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas.
A flash flood watch is in effect starting this evening and
continuing into Sunday morning.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will continue to impact the region
Saturday and Saturday night as a powerful upper level storm system
develops to our west and interacts with a frontal boundary draped
over the region. Storm total rainfall in the 4 to 7 inch range is
expected, with locally heavier amounts likely across much of northeast
and east central Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas thru Sunday.
This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and significant flooding of area rivers and lakes. Locations
downstream from dams could see significant flooding as water is
released from the flooded lakes.

The quasi-stationary frontal boundary and approaching upper system
will continue to be the focus for storms with severe potential
during the afternoon and evening hours Saturday. The severe
weather threat...and heavy rainfall threat will will come to an
end from west to east as a cold front sweeps across the region
late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Towards the middle of next week...another storm system will bring
the potential for more storms to the region. This system is expected
to push through too quickly to bring significant rainfall. Organized
severe weather is not expected either.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
This is an evolving system and the axis of heavy rainfall will
likely continue to be fine tuned. Continue to follow the latest
updates and forecasts over the next 24 to 36 hours regarding the
expected hazardous weather that will affect much of the area this
weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
241 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

OKZ054-059-290815-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
241 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OSAGE AND NORTHWESTERN
PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

At 241 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles south of
Ralston, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawhuska...                       Pawnee...
Fairfax...                        Shidler...
Ralston...                        Burbank...
Blackburn...                      Skedee...

LAT...LON 3627 9675 3648 9696 3689 9661 3662 9625
TIME...MOT...LOC 0741Z 224DEG 36KT 3646 9675

69

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
246 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

OKZ057-058-062-063-068-069-290830-
Adair OK-Craig OK-Cherokee OK-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-Mayes OK-
246 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG...DELAWARE...
SOUTHERN OTTAWA...EASTERN MAYES...NORTHWESTERN ADAIR AND NORTHEASTERN
CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

At 246 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles northwest of Bernice to 3 miles east of Peggs.
Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel to penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be
possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Jay...                            Grove...
Fairland...                       Afton...
West Siloam Springs...            Langley...
Colcord...                        Kansas...
Bernice...                        Ketchum...
Spavinaw...                       Wyandotte...
Disney...                         Oaks...
Honey Creek State Park...         Cherokee State Park...
Rose...                           Bernice State Park...
Leach...                          Cleora...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 288 and 304.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3650 9462 3618 9458 3598 9510 3668 9509
      3697 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0746Z 233DEG 39KT 3664 9497 3609 9503

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
449 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 W SKIATOOK            36.37N 96.04W
04/29/2017  E60 MPH          OSAGE              OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            60 MPH WINDS AND NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

RJS

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