Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1003 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...UPDATE...
This evening a warm frontal boundary had entered into Southeast
Oklahoma while a cold frontal boundary had pushed southeast into
Northwest Oklahoma and Southeast Kansas. These two boundaries were
associated with a surface boundary over Southwest Texas and an
upper low moving into Northern New Mexico. In response...scattered
showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with a couple storms in Northwest
Arkansas quickly becoming strong to potentially severe.

Through the overnight hours...the warm frontal boundary is
expected to lift a little further north to perhaps near/slightly
north of the Interstate 40 corridor while the cold push in
Southeast Kansas moves into the northern part of Northeast
Oklahoma. This will allow for thunderstorms to continue to develop
and spread across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...with
the greater potential north of the warm front. Mostly elevated
convection late this evening should continue overnight.
However...any storms that can develop and be rooted with the warm
front could have the potential to become more surface based. The
result will continue severe potentials overnight with large
hail...damaging winds and also a small tornado threat across the
CWA.

Late tonight into Saturday morning...convection out west should
also spread into CWA and transform the severe potential into more
of a large hail and damaging wind threat. Also...tonight into
Saturday with the multiple rounds of thunderstorms
forecast...periods of heavy rainfall increasing flash flooding
conditions will become possible. Thus...will keep the current
flash flood watch as is.

Temperatures overnight...should remain on the warm side within the
warm sector across Southeast Oklahoma...while parts of Northeast
Oklahoma could fall into the lower 50s behind the cold push moving
toward the region.

In response to the events for tonight...for the evening update...
have added minor tweaks to the overnight grids based on current
trends as the current forecast seems to be in fairly good shape.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  72  49  58 / 100 100  80  50
FSM   68  82  59  68 /  60 100 100  50
MLC   68  79  51  63 /  70  90  80  30
BVO   56  65  48  55 / 100  90  80  50
FYV   64  76  56  60 /  80 100 100  60
BYV   64  78  61  61 / 100 100 100  60
MKO   65  77  52  61 /  80 100  80  50
MIO   61  71  53  57 / 100 100  90  60
F10   65  76  49  60 /  70 100  80  30
HHW   71  80  55  64 /  40  90  90  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ049-053-057-058-
     060>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
535 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
535 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND SEVERE RISK THRU THE WEEKEND...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This evening and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 8 pm.

	Area OF GREATER RISK...Mainly north of a McAlester to Fort Smith
						   line and along and south of Interstate 44.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 8 pm.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Mainly north of a McAlester to Fort Smith
						   line and along and south of Interstate 44.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 8 pm.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 8 pm.

DISCUSSION...
Severe storm chances along with potential flash flooding will
increase this evening and overnight tonight across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Very large hail to baseball size,
damaging winds to 70 mph, and an isolated tornado are possible.

Clusters of thunderstorms continuing to develop over the Oklahoma
and Texas Panhandles will continue to push eastward and move into
Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas late this evening and
overnight. At the same time...additional thunderstorms are
forecast to develop this evening and tonight along and north of a
warm frontal boundary lifting north across Southeast Oklahoma and
Western Arkansas. All modes of severe weather will be possible
with this activity through into the overnight hours and transition
to more of a large hail and damaging wind threat late tonight
across the region.

Also through tonight...multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are
expected to develop across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas
as the frontal boundary becomes nearly stationary over the region.
This will increase the potential for flash flooding with the
greater potential over Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas.
A flash flood watch is in effect starting this evening and
continuing into Sunday morning.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will continue to impact the region
Saturday and Saturday night as a powerful upper level storm system
develops to our west and interacts with a frontal boundary draped
over the region. Storm total rainfall in the 4 to 7 inch range is
expected, with locally heavier amounts likely across much of northeast
and east central Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas thru Sunday.
This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and significant flooding of area rivers and lakes. Locations
downstream from dams could see significant flooding as water is
released from the flooded lakes.

The quasi-stationary frontal boundary and approaching upper system
will continue to be the focus for storms with severe potential
during the afternoon and evening hours Saturday. The severe
weather threat...and heavy rainfall threat will will come to an
end from west to east as a cold front sweeps across the region
late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Towards the middle of next week...another storm system will bring
the potential for more storms to the region. This system is expected
to push through too quickly to bring significant rainfall. Organized
severe weather is not expected either.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
This is an evolving system and the axis of heavy rainfall will
likely continue to be fine tuned. Continue to follow the latest
updates and forecasts over the next 24 to 36 hours regarding the
expected hazardous weather that will affect much of the area this
weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1120 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W CAMERON             35.13N 94.55W
04/28/2017                   LE FLORE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE TO A MOBILE HOME WEST OF CAMERON.

&&

AEJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1120 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2017

ARZ010-019-290445-
Washington AR-Crawford AR-
1120 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD AND
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

At 1120 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Devils Den
State Park, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fayetteville...                   Elkins...
West Fork...                      Greenland...
Winslow...                        Chester...
Brentwood...                      Devils Den State Park...
Strickler...                      Blackburn...
Lee Creek...                      Black Oak...
Wyola...                          Tuttle...
Sulphur City...                   Woolsey...
Hicks...                          Arnett...
Durham...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 33 and 55.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
northwestern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3593 9395 3562 9420 3569 9448 3570 9448
      3608 9408 3603 9394
TIME...MOT...LOC 0420Z 216DEG 41KT 3578 9429

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1122 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     HAIL             ONAPA                   35.41N 95.55W
04/28/2017  E1.00 INCH       MCINTOSH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

AEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1125 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     HAIL             MOFFETT                 35.39N 94.45W
04/28/2017  E0.75 INCH       SEQUOYAH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

AEJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1125 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2017

OKZ054-059-060-064-290500-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Creek OK-
1125 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...WESTERN
CREEK...SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE AND WEST CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1124 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Shamrock,
moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel to penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Northwestern Tulsa...             Sand Springs...
Cleveland...                      Mannford...
Drumright...                      Oilton...
Depew...                          Jennings...
Westport...                       Osage...
Hallett...                        Blackburn...
Terlton...                        Shamrock...
Keystone State Park...            Walnut Creek State Park...
Silver City...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 178 and 192.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3639 9661 3620 9602 3575 9648 3576 9662
      3616 9662 3616 9667
TIME...MOT...LOC 0424Z 207DEG 40KT 3594 9657

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1133 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2017

ARZ001-010-290500-
Benton AR-Washington AR-
1133 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BENTON AND NORTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1132 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles southwest of Gravette to 2 miles east of
Springdale. Movement was north at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fayetteville...                   Springdale...
Rogers...                         Bentonville...
Siloam Springs...                 Bella Vista...
Lowell...                         Pea Ridge...
Gentry...                         Tontitown...
Bethel Heights...                 Gravette...
Cave Springs...                   Decatur...
Highfill...                       Garfield...
Gateway...                        Springtown...
Hiwasse...                        Hobbs State Park...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 66 and 84, and
between mile markers 86 and 93.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
northwestern Arkansas...and northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3639 9388 3638 9389 3637 9388 3621 9390
      3608 9395 3614 9456 3650 9460 3650 9386
TIME...MOT...LOC 0432Z 191DEG 37KT 3638 9448 3619 9409