Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
620 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...MVFR to IFR conditions prevail through 23.06z,
with lower cigs/vis possible in some of the heavier showers and
thunderstorms throughout the period. Southerly winds around 15 to
25 knots gusting to 30 knots continue through 23.00z before
gradually settling to around 10 to 15 knots overnight. /49

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 502 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

..IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH CINDY CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...Area radars detecting
eastern outer rain bands associated with Tropical Storm Cindy as
it makes landfall in southwestern Louisiana. Numerous to definite
rain showers along with embedded scattered thunderstorms will
persist throughout the day. Some of the showers and storms will
again be capable of producing periods of heavy rainfall and brief
isolated tornadoes. The precipitation will then taper off from
southeast to northwest tonight as Cindy continues to move
northward, but scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should
persist past midnight west of the Alabama River.

A moderate to strong southerly wind flow will persist through
today, especially along the coastal sections. As a result, a
Coastal Flood Warning will remain in effect for southwest Alabama
through 6 pm today, and a Coastal Flood Advisory will remain in
effect for the western Florida panhandle. A High Surf Advisory
and a High Rip Current Risk also remains in effect along the
beaches of Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. In
addition...expanded the Wind Advisory to include the central
portions of Mobile and Baldwin counties for today.

The periods of heavy rainfall will mainly occur today and this
evening, with widespread total rainfall amounts ranging from 1 to
3 inches. Locally higher amounts of 4 to 8 inches are certainly
possible, especially where the more persistent rain bands set up.

High temperatures today will be in the lower 80s. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the mid 70s inland areas, and
upper 70s along the coast. /22

SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...With the remnants
of Tropical Storm Cindy swept up, up and away in the mid-latitude
westerlies, the plume of deep tropical moisture over the local
area pushes west and north as it's squeezed between high pressure
building overhead from the western Atlantic and a sagging frontal
boundary draped over the central Mississippi River Valley. With
this shift, expect shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday and
Saturday to remain mostly limited to the western and northern
halves of the local area, with the best chances west and north of
Interstate 65. Meanwhile, winds continue to relax and temperatures
return to near-seasonal levels, with afternoon highs in the upper
80's and overnight lows in the low to mid 70's each day and
night, respectively. /49

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Heading into Sunday, the
aforementioned frontal boundary continues to push southeast
before stalling over or just north of the local area. As a result,
expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue across the
local area into early next week as a weak mid-level impulse takes
advantage of the underlying summertime airmass south of the
stalled front. The front is then progged to sag south to the coast
by midweek, perhaps providing some relief from the wet weather
for inland areas, before pushing off to the east as the next
impulse approaches and unsettled weather returns. The return of
unsettled weather through the long term period will be accompanied
by below-seasonal daytime temperatures, with highs in the low to
mid 80's each afternoon. Lows will remain in the low to mid 70's
each night. /49

MARINE...Strong southerly flow will continue to bring hazardous
conditions for small craft over the bays, sounds and coastal
waters of Alabama and the western Florida panhandle and out 60
nautical miles through early Friday. Large swells will persist
into Thursday. Small craft will need to exercise caution through
Friday evening until winds and seas subside further. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ261>266.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for FLZ201>206.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-
     204-206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for GMZ631-632-650-
     655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for GMZ630-633>635.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
657 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-231200-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
657 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The heavy rain threat and flash flooding potential continues
today into tonight, especially across central and southern
portions of the area. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the
entire local area through 1 am tonight.

Dangerous surf conditions will continue through tonight, with
surf heights of 6 to 9 feet, with a few breakers up to 10 feet
along area beaches. A High Surf Advisory and a High Risk of Rip
Currents remain in effect.

Minor coastal flooding of the typically flood prone coastal roads
along Alabama and northwest Florida panhandle beaches is also
possible, especially during times of high tide this morning. A
Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for southwest Alabama, and a
Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the western Florida
panhandle through 6 pm today.

Isolated storms will be capable of producing brief tornadoes
across coastal portions of southeast Mississippi, southwest
Alabama and the northwest Florida Panhandle through much of the
day.

Strong winds will remain along the immediate Alabama and western
Florida panhandle coast. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with
occasional higher gusts are expected. Thus, a Wind Advisory is in
effect for the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Dangerous surf conditions will likely persist into Friday as long
periods swells continue to come ashore. A High Risk of Rip
Currents will likely need to be extended through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are encouraged to relay any reports of flooding
or damage.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-231200-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Destin to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
657 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue over the bays,
sounds, and coastal gulf waters of Alabama and the western Florida
panhandle out 60 nautical miles through tonight. Sustained winds
of 20 to 30 knots with higher gusts are expected. Seas 9 to 13
feet remain throughout the day, subsiding to 6 to 9 feet by late
tonight. Bays and sounds will be choppy to rough.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Small craft will need to exercise caution through Friday evening
until winds and seas subside further.

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