Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1159 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...MVFR to IFR cigs and visibilities through 23.06z.
Lower cigs mainly in the some of the heavier showers or
thunderstorms which prevail through the forecast period. Winds
will continue from the south at 15 to 25 kt with occasional gusts
to 30 knots through the forecast period. 32/ee

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1115 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land and marine areas below.

UPDATE...No major changes to previous forecast thinking and
noFM230300 16018KT P6SM OVC015=updates required to current
forecast package. Widespread heavy rainfall has temporarily ended
across much of the forecast area this evening, expect over the
eastern third from near Fort Walton Beach Florida northward
through Andalusia then up to near Luverne and Greenville Alabama.
Many locations received anywhere from 3 to 6 inches of rainfall on
Wednesday, with some areas receiving even higher amounts of 4 to
8 inches. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for our entire
forecast area through Thursday night. Mesoscale models indicate
that additional bands of very heavy rainfall will develop over the
Gulf late tonight into Thursday morning, and lift north into
portions of the forecast area. This will bring a continued threat
of heavy rainfall and potentially life threatening flash flooding
to the region. Flash flooding and river flooding has/is already
occurring, and any additional heavy will only further increase the
flooding potential across the area.

In addition to the heavy rainfall threat, a coastal flooding
threat will continue through Thursday as well, most notably around
the tide of high tide Thursday morning, which is generally between
7 am to 10 am along the coastline of Alabama and the western
Florida panhandle. A Coastal Flood Warning continues for the
Alabama coast in and around Mobile Bay, where 2 to 4 feet of water
above normally dry ground can be expected along the immediate
coast around the time of high tide tomorrow morning. Moderate
flooding impacts along coastal areas could impact the morning
commute on Thursday around the Mobile Bay area. A Coastal Flood
Advisory continues for the western Florida panhandle coast on
Thursday, with 1 to 3 feet of water above normally dry ground
expected along the immediate coast. In addition a High Surf
Advisory and a High Risk of Rip Currents continues along Gulf
beaches.

Tornado threat has decreased for a time late this evening, but as
additional storms develop offshore late tonight and begin moving
toward the coast, some tornadoes will again be possible with the
stronger storms. A Tornado Watch continues for much of the forecast
area through 3 am Thursday morning. 12/DS

Breezy conditions will continue through Thursday as well,
especially near the coast, where a Wind Advisory remains in
effect. 12/DS

MARINE...Updated Coastal Waters Forecast to cancel the Tropical
Storm Warning for Gulf zones GMZ650 and GMZ670. We now have a "high
end" Small Craft Advisory in effect for all of our marine zones.
Expect southeast winds to continue in the 20 to 30 knot range, with
occasional gusts to around 35 knots overnight, diminishing to 20
to 25 knots on Friday but becoming more southerly. Rough conditions
expected to continue on bays and inland waterways. Seas off shore
initially 10 to 14 tonight, subsiding to 9 to 11 feet on Thursday
and then diminishing to 5 to 7 feet by late Friday. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 949 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest marine discussion below.

MARINE...We are currently working up a new marine package in
which we will cancel the Tropical Storm Warning over the Gulf
waters, replacing it with a high end Small Craft Advisory. The
marine updates will be issued shortly. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 529 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017/

IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH CINDY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...

Continued impacts through Thursday over the area include:

- Significant rainfall and flash flooding
- Minor to moderate river flooding
- A few severe storms capable of producing isolated tornadoes,
  waterspouts, and damaging wind gusts.
- Deadly rip currents, high surf, and minor to moderate coastal
  flooding
- Breezy to windy conditions near the coast
- Continued strong winds and high seas over the marine area

Tropical Storm Cindy continues to move slowly northwestward over
the northwest Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, and satellite imagery
shows continued deep tropical moisture and associated convective
bands lifting northward over the central Gulf of Mexico toward our
forecast area well east of this feature this afternoon. A deep
tropical airmass otherwise remains in place over our forecast
area this afternoon, with precipitable water values ranging as
high as 2.6 inches. Convective bands moving into the area will be
very efficient rainfall producers tonight and Thursday, with
rainfall rates of 3-4 inches per hour not out of the question with
the heavier bands. Given that widespread 4 to 8 inches of rain
was reported with earlier storms this morning around the region,
and additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated
amounts over 10" will be possible, a significant to extreme
potential of flash flooding will continue into Thursday,
especially over central and southern portions of the region.
Embedded low topped supercells will persist through the remainder
of the afternoon and evening, with sufficient instability and low
level shear to produce a continued potential for isolated
tornadoes around the region. Continued swell from Cindy and strong
onshore flow will continue to produce deadly rip currents and
high surf along area beaches. Minor to moderate coastal flooding
will remain possible into Thursday, especially west of Pensacola
during times of high tide. /21

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...Cindy will
be pulled northward near the TX/LA boarder Thursday, and gradually
gets absorbed into the westerlies near the Mississippi Valley
Thursday night into Friday. The plume of deep tropical moisture
over our area gradually shifts westward Thursday night into
Friday between Cindy to the west and an upper level ridge of high
pressure building from the western Atlantic to the FL Peninsula.
POPs should gradually decrease from east to west during this
period. The base of the trough axis and moist zonal flow will sink
southward toward our area again late Friday into the weekend
bringing another uptick in rain chances late in the short term
period. /21

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...The associated weak
frontal boundary may push into our area Sunday with a continued
chance of showers and thunderstorms. There is some disagreement on
the operational GFS and ECMWF on how far south the moisture axis/
front sinks southward early to mid next week. Will maintain low
POPs through the extended forecast period. /21

MARINE...Tropical storm conditions will continue over the
coastal waters through Thursday from Pensacola to Pascagoula out
to 60 nautical miles, with frequent gusts to around 35 knots.
Strong southeasterly to southerly flow will otherwise continue to
bring hazardous conditions for small craft over bays and sounds
and coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola out 60 nautical miles.
Large swell shifts northward and will persist into Thursday before
seas gradually subside. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch through late Thursday night for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ261>266.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flash Flood Watch through late Thursday night for FLZ201>206.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for GMZ630>635-650-
     655-670-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1204 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     N FOLEY                 30.41N 87.68W
06/21/2017                   BALDWIN            AL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. SOME MINOR DAMAGE TO HOMES ON
            STATE HWY 59.

&&

DJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1213 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 7 E COFFEEVILLE         31.74N 87.98W
06/21/2017                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AND ROAD BLOCKED ALONG HWY 154 NEAR LONDON RD.
            TREES DOWN ON HWY 84 NEAR SUNSET RD.

&&

DJOHNSON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW PENSACOLA         30.44N 87.27W
06/21/2017                   ESCAMBIA           FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN, POWERLINES DOWN,AND COSMETIC DAMAGE TO HOMES
            NEAR AQUAMARINE AVE AND EMERALD AVE.

&&

DJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
121 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

FLZ201>204-220715-
Escambia Inland FL-Santa Rosa Coastal FL-Escambia Coastal FL-
Santa Rosa Inland FL-
121 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...SANTA
ROSA AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

At 120 AM CDT, the leading edge of a cluster of strong thunderstorms
was moving onshore near Gulf Breeze. The storms were moving to
the north at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pensacola, Ferry Pass, Brent, West Pensacola, Ensley, Warrington,
Gonzalez, Atmore, Pace, Milton, Gulf Breeze, Goulding, Century,
Flomaton, Bagdad, Myrtle Grove, Oriole Beach, Navarre, Molino and
Jay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Additional statements will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for south central
and southwestern Alabama...and northwestern Florida.

LAT...LON 3041 8744 3042 8740 3044 8739 3045 8742
      3051 8745 3061 8740 3065 8740 3068 8741
      3074 8752 3078 8754 3082 8759 3090 8762
      3096 8759 3100 8760 3100 8688 3034 8690
      3026 8738
TIME...MOT...LOC 0620Z 166DEG 22KT 3035 8721

Butts

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