Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1154 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

.UPDATE...
Compact but rather potent gust front wave was dropping southeast
through eastern Shelby County TN at 1145 PM. 00Z NAM Duct Function
was progged in excess of 12C this evening, suggestive of sustained
thunderstorm outflow. There will remain a low to moderate severe
threat into north MS into the early morning, before the convection
gradually wanes.

See the 06Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 533 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017/

UPDATE...
Updated to add 00Z Aviation Discussion.

DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service Little
Rock AR/

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday Night

The main concern for the short term period will be the possibility
of strong to severe storms this evening, and then the chances for
some wintry precipitation on Saturday morning and again Saturday
evening/night.

First up, the storms tonight. A cold front across eastern Kansas
through central Missouri. Guidance points to the development of an
MCS in southwestern Missouri, and pushes it southeast through
northern and northeastern Arkansas and western Tennessee through the
evening hours through around or shortly after midnight. By 2-3am it
appears storms will be south of the forecast area so this will be a
quick hitting bout of storms. While some threat of tornadoes does
exist in southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas, the main threats
for our forecast area will be the possibility of damaging winds.
Expect these storms to roll through the Memphis metro area between
10pm-Midnight.

Regarding the wintry weather on Sat morning and then again Sat night
into Sun morning, it appears likely that at least some wintry
precipitation will be seen. Saturday morning will be mainly near
the Missouri and Kentucky state lines, well north of the metro.
The limiting factor there will be the actual presence of
precipitation. Decent dry/cold air maintenance in northeast
surface flow will allow for conditions prime for wet bulb
processes to hold temperatures down to around the freezing mark
for a few hours after daybreak. The most likely precip type would
be sleet. However, models are very limited in the amount of
precipitation they're producing so this doesn't appear to be much
of a worry. It may be more of a situation where there's some
light returns on radar but nothing reaches the ground. The bigger
concern is Saturday night into Sunday morning. A more significant
swath of precipitation should occur in temperatures sufficient for
wintry precipitation, and expect to see around an inch of snow
fall across northeast Arkansas, western Tennessee, and northern
Mississippi. Have foregone the issuance of any headlines at this
time because this is still a couple of days out, and minor changes
in temperature forecasts could result in noticeably different
precipitation types. But it is definitely worth keeping an eye on,
as it would affect a broad area. &&

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Dry and colder conditions will start off the period as wintry
precip comes to an end early Sun morning. Sfc high pressure will
settle over the Mid-South to close out the weekend. Highs on Sun
will be in the 40s and 50s. Many locations along and N of the I-40
corridor will likely see sub-freezing temps by Mon morning.

The airmass will briefly modify on Mon ahead of a quick moving
storm sys. Small rain chcs were mentioned over mainly the north
half of the FA Mon and Mon evening. Rain amounts are expected to
be light due to the lack of significant moisture return.

Models are at odds regarding several additional weak weather
systems passing across the area towards the middle of the week.
Included rain chances for Thursday, as the associated system looks
to at least have ample moisture/lift. Temperatures will be warming
by the end of the period, so no concerns for any additional winter
weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs

E/W convective TSRA line at MEM will press quickly south during
the early morning. Some wake outflow may briefly return southerly
winds to the terminal, before wake low exits and northerly winds
from the pressure gradient return toward outbound time.

VFR and gusty north winds to prevail Friday, with diurnal loss of
gusts after 00Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
330 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-102330-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
330 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe storms are possible across the Mid-South tonight,
especially across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and
West Tennessee. The primary threats will be damaging winds and
large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is the potential for accumulating winter precipitation
across northern portions of the Mid South including Eastern
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and West Tennessee for late
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.

Freezing temperatures are anticipated over a large portion of the
Midsouth each night from Saturday night through Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across the Midsouth tonight.

SJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1216 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

MSZ007-008-011-012-100700-
Tunica MS-Panola MS-Tate MS-Quitman MS-
1216 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 100 AM CST
FOR...

Southeastern Tunica County in northwestern Mississippi...
Panola County in northwestern Mississippi...
Southwestern Tate County in northwestern Mississippi...
Eastern Quitman County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 1216 AM CST...strong thunderstorms were producing winds to 45 mph
was located along a line extending from near Senatobia to 7 miles
west of Como to near Dubbs. Movement was south at 45 mph.

People in southeastern Tunica...Panola...southwestern Tate and
eastern Quitman Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3417 9032 3460 9037 3461 9008 3465 8988
      3435 8972 3425 8972 3416 8986 3416 9014
TIME...MOT...LOC 0616Z 342DEG 38KT 3460 8990 3455 9006 3456 9032

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1244 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE MIDTOWN MEMPHIS    35.10N 89.95W
03/09/2017                   SHELBY             TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON HIGHLAND STREET NEAR CENTRAL AVENUE
            INTERSECTION. TIME IS RADAR ESTIMATED.

&&

AJC

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