Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
533 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated to add 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&
.DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service Little
Rock AR/

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday Night

The main concern for the short term period will be the possibility
of strong to severe storms this evening, and then the chances for
some wintry precipitation on Saturday morning and again Saturday
evening/night.

First up, the storms tonight. A cold front across eastern Kansas
through central Missouri. Guidance points to the development of an
MCS in southwestern Missouri, and pushes it southeast through
northern and northeastern Arkansas and western Tennessee through the
evening hours through around or shortly after midnight. By 2-3am it
appears storms will be south of the forecast area so this will be a
quick hitting bout of storms. While some threat of tornadoes does
exist in southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas, the main threats
for our forecast area will be the possibility of damaging winds.
Expect these storms to roll through the Memphis metro area between
10pm-Midnight.

Regarding the wintry weather on Sat morning and then again Sat night
into Sun morning, it appears likely that at least some wintry
precipitation will be seen. Saturday morning will be mainly near
the Missouri and Kentucky state lines, well north of the metro.
The limiting factor there will be the actual presence of
precipitation. Decent dry/cold air maintenance in northeast
surface flow will allow for conditions prime for wet bulb
processes to hold temperatures down to around the freezing mark
for a few hours after daybreak. The most likely precip type would
be sleet. However, models are very limited in the amount of
precipitation they're producing so this doesn't appear to be much
of a worry. It may be more of a situation where there's some
light returns on radar but nothing reaches the ground. The bigger
concern is Saturday night into Sunday morning. A more significant
swath of precipitation should occur in temperatures sufficient for
wintry precipitation, and expect to see around an inch of snow
fall across northeast Arkansas, western Tennessee, and northern
Mississippi. Have foregone the issuance of any headlines at this
time because this is still a couple of days out, and minor changes
in temperature forecasts could result in noticeably different
precipitation types. But it is definitely worth keeping an eye on,
as it would affect a broad area. &&

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Dry and colder conditions will start off the period as wintry
precip comes to an end early Sun morning. Sfc high pressure will
settle over the Mid-South to close out the weekend. Highs on Sun
will be in the 40s and 50s. Many locations along and N of the I-40
corridor will likely see sub-freezing temps by Mon morning.

The airmass will briefly modify on Mon ahead of a quick moving
storm sys. Small rain chcs were mentioned over mainly the north
half of the FA Mon and Mon evening. Rain amounts are expected to
be light due to the lack of significant moisture return.

Models are at odds regarding several additional weak weather
systems passing across the area towards the middle of the week.
Included rain chances for Thursday, as the associated system looks
to at least have ample moisture/lift. Temperatures will be warming
by the end of the period, so no concerns for any additional winter
weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs

Cluster of showers and thunderstorms over Southern Missouri
expected to develop into a convective complex and drop SSE into
the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening affecting JBR between
10/03Z-05Z, MEM and MKL between 10/04Z-07Z, and TUP between 10
/05Z-08Z. MVFR/IFR conditions possible within thunderstorms. S
winds will veer NW and become gusty with passage of convective
complex and gradually veer N/NE with passage of cold front Friday
morning. Winds expected to gradually lighten by Friday afternoon.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
330 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-102330-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
330 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe storms are possible across the Mid-South tonight,
especially across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and
West Tennessee. The primary threats will be damaging winds and
large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is the potential for accumulating winter precipitation
across northern portions of the Mid South including Eastern
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and West Tennessee for late
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.

Freezing temperatures are anticipated over a large portion of the
Midsouth each night from Saturday night through Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across the Midsouth tonight.

SJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
322 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-MOZ113-115-TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>055-088>092-092330-
Randolph-Clay-Lawrence-Greene-Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-
Cross-Crittenden-St. Francis-Dunklin-Pemiscot-Lake-Obion-Weakley-
Henry-Dyer-Gibson-Carroll-Benton TN-Lauderdale-Tipton-Haywood-
Crockett-Madison-Chester-Henderson-Decatur-Shelby-Fayette-
Hardeman-McNairy-Hardin-
Including the cities of Pocahontas, Piggott, Corning,
Walnut Ridge, Paragould, Jonesboro, Harrisburg, Blytheville,
Wynne, West Memphis, Forrest City, Kennett, Caruthersville,
Tiptonville, Union City, Martin, Dresden, Paris, Dyersburg,
Humboldt, Milan, Huntingdon, Camden, Ripley TN, Covington,
Brownsville, Alamo, Jackson, Henderson, Lexington, Parsons,
Decaturville, Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville, Memphis,
Millington, Somerville, Oakland, Bolivar, Selmer, and Savannah
322 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

...Accumulating Winter Precipitation Possible Late Saturday...

A developing storm tracking along the Gulf Coast this weekend
will draw in freezing temperatures across the Midsouth counties
Saturday and Saturday night. Overrunning precipitation will
likely start off as a cold rain in the morning, mixing in with
sleet and possibly some snow along the Missouri and Kentucky by
early afternoon. A complete changeover to winter precipitation is
anticipated later in the afternoon as freezing air surges in from
the north. Accumulations will be possible in the evening as far
south as the Mississippi border. Please stay tuned to forecast
changes or updates on the potential for winter weather.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
340 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-MOZ113-115-TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>055-088>092-101030-
Randolph-Clay-Lawrence-Greene-Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-
Cross-Crittenden-St. Francis-Dunklin-Pemiscot-Lake-Obion-Weakley-
Henry-Dyer-Gibson-Carroll-Benton TN-Lauderdale-Tipton-Haywood-
Crockett-Madison-Chester-Henderson-Decatur-Shelby-Fayette-
Hardeman-McNairy-Hardin-
Including the cities of Pocahontas, Piggott, Corning,
Walnut Ridge, Paragould, Jonesboro, Harrisburg, Blytheville,
Wynne, West Memphis, Forrest City, Kennett, Caruthersville,
Tiptonville, Union City, Martin, Dresden, Paris, Dyersburg,
Humboldt, Milan, Huntingdon, Camden, Ripley TN, Covington,
Brownsville, Alamo, Jackson, Henderson, Lexington, Parsons,
Decaturville, Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville, Memphis,
Millington, Somerville, Oakland, Bolivar, Selmer, and Savannah
340 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

...Accumulating Winter Precipitation Possible Late Saturday...

A developing storm tracking along the Gulf Coast this weekend
will draw in freezing temperatures across the Midsouth counties
Saturday and Saturday night. Overrunning precipitation will
likely start off as a cold rain in the morning, mixing in with
sleet and possibly some snow along the Missouri and Kentucky by
early afternoon. A complete changeover to winter precipitation is
anticipated later in the afternoon as freezing air surges in from
the north. Accumulations will be possible in the evening as far
south as the Mississippi border. Please stay tuned to forecast
changes or updates on the potential for winter weather.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
643 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             2 ESE TREMONT           34.22N 88.22W
03/09/2017  M1.00 INCH       ITAWAMBA           MS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

&&

MRM